COPE LEADER MOSIUOA LEKOTA MEETS WITH AMBASSADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002624

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2018
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SUBJECT: COPE LEADER MOSIUOA LEKOTA MEETS WITH AMBASSADOR
BOST

PRETORIA 00002624 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR RAYMOND L. BROWN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).

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Summary
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1. (C) Congress of the People (COPE) leader Mosiuoa Lekota
discussed his party's campaign platform, the broader politics
surrounding the election next year, and his party's prospects
for success at a lunch with Ambassador Bost, the DCM,
Polcouns, and Poloff on December 2. Lekota said his party is
committed to pro-market economic policies, the rule of law,
and the de-politicization of all government institutions and
bodies. He was not very concerned about violence around the
election and said he is open to forming coalitions with
like-minded opposition parties. He indirectly characterized
COPE's electoral prospects as being strong, saying that "ANC
will not win in Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape,
KwaZulu-Natal, Northwest, or Free State." However, he also
noted that funding is a challenge for the party. End
Summary.

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Lekota Opens Up To US Ambassador
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2. (C) COPE leader and former ANC chairman Mosiuoa Lekota
met with Ambassador Bost, the DCM, Polcouns, and Poloff for a
working lunch on December 2. A confident Lekota thanked the
Embassy for the opportunity to meet. The former Defense
Minister and ANC party chairman was dressed in a
short-sleeved, buttoned-down green shirt and cut the figure
of a man far more relaxed than his demanding schedule would
indicate. Lekota discussed COPE's core campaign plans and
issues. First, he said the party is committed to pro-market
economic policies and wants to avoid allowing South Africa to
fall into deficit spending as promoted by left-leaning
members of the ANC alliance. He warned that a policy of
deficit spending would make the country "no different than
other nations in the third world." He also reiterated his
message that COPE is committed to constitutionalism and the
rule of law, equality before the law, and democracy by the
people. He noted that COPE wants to further institutionalize
"the progress we have made during the past 15 years." Lekota
said COPE wants to professionalize and de-politicize all
government institutions and bodies. He worried that the
unionization of civil servants and security services aligned
to the trade union federation COSATU risked creating partisan
behaviors favoring the ANC by these elements. He said COPE
wants to ensure the police, military, intelligence services,
and civilian positions remain free from partisan intervention
or favor.


3. (C) Regarding COPE's campaign plans and issues, Lekota
discussed broader electoral politics and prospects. He said
the ANC is "playing a game" designed to catch opposition
parties unprepared by not coming out and saying that the
election will be earlier than expected on March 25. He said
he has heard from former ANC colleagues that the ANC
leadership has decided the election will be held on that day.
He responded to a question from Ambassador Bost on election
violence by noting that "he is not worried about violence."
However, he did say that both the supporters of the ANC and
COPE are conditioned to engage in political violence. He
noted that South Africa comes from a violent apartheid past
that is still a living memory for many, but that people now
want to avoid such violence because of the messages they
Qwant to avoid such violence because of the messages they
heard promoting national reconciliation during the 1990s. He
responded to a question from the DCM on the possibility of
forming coalitions with other political parties by pointing
to the national convention he organized in Sandton last month
and said that he made it a point to reach out to all the
country's major opposition parties. He said COPE is
interested in building coalitions with any party with the
matching interests of promoting democracy, rule of law, and
pro-market economic policies. He mentioned the United
Democratic Movement and the Democratic Alliance as two
parties COPE could align with in the future. He said that
"COPE is our name" and he is confident that the ANC would be
unable to win any legal contests against the party's use of
the phrase, "Congress of the People."


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4. (C) Speaking specifically to COPE's electoral chances,
Lekota believes his new organization can "win." He performed
an indirect calculation of the prospects, saying the "ANC
will not win in Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape,
KwaZulu-Natal, Northwest, or Free State." (Note: Lekota did
not mention the electoral chances of either the ANC or COPE
for Gauteng, Limpopo, or Mpumalanga, perhaps suggesting he
does not think his party will perform as strongly in those
provinces as in the ones he referenced. End Note) He said,
"You must keep in mind that the ANC is not gaining any
members but we are." He noted that there are many within the
government and within the ANC's National Executive Committee
who support COPE's election program and message but are
afraid of speaking out for fear of losing access to
government jobs. He lamented that in the dying years of
apartheid, such fear was "more a product of the National
Party than of the ANC." However, because of the ANC's
political culture that punishes dissent, today, fear stalks
the political landscape as ANC members now fear the ANC. He
closed the meeting by alluding to the fact that funding is an
issue for COPE and that raising the $144,000 needed as a
deposit for the venue for the manifesto conference beginning
December 13 already is a concern. (Note: Poloff held a side
conversation with Lekota's personal assistant, Dr. Tseliso
Phomane, on the logistics for the December 13-16 manifesto
conference. Phomane noted that December 13 will be for
registration, December 14-15 will be devoted to committee
meetings and discussions on policy, and December 16 will be a
larger feedback session on decisions for the party. He noted
that December 17 would be reserved for meetings among COPE's
leadership. He said there is no way to register for the
conference at this time, but there will be "next week." End
Note.)

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Comment
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5. (C) Lekota provided significant insights into COPE's
campaign platform, the broader politics surrounding the
election next year, and the party's prospects for success.
The former Defense Minister seemed convinced that COPE's
message is the right one for the majority of South Africans
and he was optimistic that his party would prevail at the
polls. However, the former Defense Minister's admission that
funding is a concern presents a serious challenge to COPE.
Also, whether or not COPE's campaign message of pro-market
economic policies, commitment to the rule of law, and
de-politicizing government institutions continues to attract
supporters also presents a serious challenge. Failure to
maintain funding and to attract new supporters -- who also
vote for the party -- could limit the party's electoral
prospects. In either case, the party appears willing to work
with other political parties to keep the ANC from winning a
two-thirds majority.
BOST