Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08PRETORIA250
2008-02-07 11:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Pretoria
Cable title:  

SAG NEGOTIATOR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT BURUNDI PEACE TALKS

Tags:  PGOV PREL BY SF 
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RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #0250/01 0381147
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 071147Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3393
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5288
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9554
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000250 

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TAGS: PGOV PREL BY SF
SUBJECT: SAG NEGOTIATOR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT BURUNDI PEACE TALKS


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Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an
d (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000250

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TAGS: PGOV PREL BY SF
SUBJECT: SAG NEGOTIATOR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT BURUNDI PEACE TALKS


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Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an
d (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. PolCouns and PolOff on 4 February met with
SAG Special Envoy to the Great Lakes, Ambassador Kingsley
Mamabolo, to discuss recent developments concerning the
possible resumption of peace talks between the CNDD-FDD
government and the Palipehutu-FNL after a six month
stalemate. Though South African Safety and Security Minister
Charles Nqakula will officially oversee the talks, Mamabolo
said he will remain the SAG's key interlocutor. Mamabolo
laid equal blame on both sides for past derailments, but is
more optimistic that this round of peace talks will succeed
given the FNL's desire to compete in 2010 elections.
However, Jan Van Eck, one of the FNL's key advisors, told
PolOff the same day that while the FNL agrees in principle to
the resumption of talks, they still distrust Mamabolo, whom
they view as biased, and would like him removed from the
SAG's negotiating team. END SUMMARY.

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SAG OPTIMISTIC
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2. (C) On 4 February, PolCouns and PolOff met with SAG
Special Envoy to the Great Lakes, Ambassador Kingsley
Mamabolo, who opened the meeting by joking that "the process
just keeps refusing to move forward." Throughout the
discussion, Mamabolo appeared to lay equal blame on both
sides for the most recent stalemate. The FNL, Mamabolo
believes, was never really ready to compromise. Instead, he
suspects the FNL backed out of the last peace deal because
they wanted more time to collect weapons and recruit more
soldiers in order to ensure themselves higher-ranking
positions in the military. (NOTE: Mamabolo complained that
the current demobilization process is perverse in that it is
encouraging and rewarding rebels who continue to build their
ranks. END NOTE)


3. (C) Mamabolo also said Burundian President Pierre
Nkurunziza's refusal to offer cabinet-level positions,
Ambassadorships, or Directorships to the FNL contributed to
the breakdown of past negotiations. Mamabolo complained that
Nkurunziza has continually rebuffed Mamabolo's suggestion

that he offer the FNL positions on the grounds that it would
be "unconstitutional." Mamabolo said he does not see a
problem with accommodating some of the rebels and will
continue to press the issue. Mamabolo mentioned several
times as an example of a good faith measure that Nkurunziza
could "make up a cabinet position like Minister of State,"
for FNL leader Agathon Rwasa.


4. (C) Despite these hurdles, Mamabolo is more optimistic
that new negotiations will succeed because "the FNL is more
anxious to come back than in the past, given the need to make
itself a legitimate and viable option in the upcoming 2010
election." He also said he has told Nkurunziza that he needs
to once and for all accept the FNL into government, otherwise
they will continue to be a destabilizing force if continually
excluded from government.

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MAMABOLO AND TANZANIA TO PLAY PROMINENT ROLE, RWASA LESS SO
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Mamabolo admitted that he will continue his role as
the lead negotiator behind the scenes, even though Minister
for Safety and Security Charles Nqakula will continue to be
called the SAG's lead facilitator. Mamabolo described
himself as Nqakula's "deputy," admitting that with the
Qhimself as Nqakula's "deputy," admitting that with the
current political climate in South Africa, it is difficult
for Nqakula to travel much outside the country without it
being perceived as either a dereliction or avoidance of his
domestic portfolio. In a 3 February conversation with
PolOff, Institute of Security Studies consultant Jan Van Eck
(who has been advising the FNL) warned that Mamabolo's
continued presence is going to be a sticking point with the
FNL, who perceive Mamabolo as pro-government. Mamabolo fully
acknowledged that he is not well-liked by the rebels, but
called the accusation that he "twisted arms" during the last
round of negotiations "utter nonsense." Mamabolo chalks up
their distrust of him to the fact that "the FNL is being
badly advised," without naming names.


6. (C) Van Eck also told PolOff "confidentially" that
Tanzania will be playing a more prominent, though
low-profile, role in negotiations. Van Eck told PolOff that

PRETORIA 00000250 002.2 OF 002


Tanzanian President Kikwete "realizes that Mamabolo is biased
and that past negotiations have been unfair." According to
Van Eck, Kikwete, who is "brave and determined," has asked
his Foreign Minister Bernard Membe to drive the process
"behind the scenes."


7. (C) As for who is driving the rebels, Mamabolo mentioned
that while Rwasa still represents the FNL, "it is clear he
has lost control." Mamabolo described Rwasa as a
"figure-head like Mandela is to the ANC; the party needed his
buy-in even though he was not always pulling the strings."
Mamabolo believes that FNL Spokesperson Pasteur Habimana is
instead pulling the strings. However, Mamabolo does not
believe Habimana will return to Burundi for fear of being
prosecuted for human rights violations, about which he has
publicly bragged. Van Eck contradicted Mamabolo later that
day, saying Rwasa continues to be in control, but did admit
that Rwasa was a "non-emotional diplomat," while Habimana was
"overly emotional and irrational." Van Eck complained that
the rebels needed someone in between.

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NEXT STEPS
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8. (C) The SAG was granted on 03 February a twelve-month
extension from the African Union to continue peace
negotiations between the CNDD-led government and the FNL.
Mamabolo said the SAG is looking at integrating all factions
of the FNL within the next six months and then assessing when
SAG troops can come home. After integration, the SAG is
considering suggesting some sort of Truth and Reconciliation
Process, "which would have to be driven by Burundi, not us,"
said Mamabolo. He also said the SAG intends to start talking
to international donors, but did not elaborate which donors
or for what purpose.
BOST