SADC SUMMIT CONCLUDES WITH NO ZIMBABWE RESOLUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 001847

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D COPY (CHANGES MADE IN PARA 6)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2018
TAGS: PREL SADC SF ZI
SUBJECT: SADC SUMMIT CONCLUDES WITH NO ZIMBABWE RESOLUTION

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Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of MIssion Donald Schenck. Reasons
1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Against a backdrop of high expectations, the Southern
African Development Community (SADC) ended its 28th annual
Heads of State and Government Summit in Sandton, South Africa
on 17 August with barely a mention of the Zimbabwe crisis.
Both the outgoing and incoming SADC Organ on Politics,
Defence, and Security Co-operation met on the sidelines
during and after the summit to try and reach a negotiated
settlement, but in the end failed to make any additional
headway. New developments included South Africa taking over
as the Chair of SADC, the Democratic Republic of Congo voted
in as next Chair in 2009, and Seychelles rejoining SADC after
withdrawing five years ago. As promised eight years ago, 12
of 15 SADC countries signed on to a "Free Trade Area," with
promises of a customs union by 2012 and a common currency by

2018. END SUMMARY.

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OUT WITH OLD, IN WITH NEW
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2. (C) The Southern African Development Community (SADC) held
its 28th annual Heads of State and Government Summit in
Sandton, South Africa on 17 August. SADC now encompasses 15
members states, after Seychelles officially rejoined SADC
after a five-year hiatus. Seychelles President James Michel
explained that Seychelles withdrew from SADC after
"macroeconomic reforms forced us to reevaluate dues to
international forums," making it sound as if they were
cutting down on magazine subscriptions. South Africa has
taken over as SADC Chair and it was announced that SADC
members agreed that the Democratic Republic of Congo will
take over as Chair from South Africa in 2009. The SADC Organ
on Politics, Defence, and Security Co-operation (often
referred to as SADC Troika) will consist of former Chair
Angola, current chair Swaziland, and future chair Mozambique
(which replaced Tanzania).

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ZIMBABWE: THE INVISIBLE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
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3. (C) During opening ceremonies on 16 August, SADC Heads of
State walked into the room two-by-two, with President Mbeki
and Robert Mugabe entering together. Robert Mugabe was
introduced as President of Zimbabwe and sat on stage with
other Heads of State, while MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai sat
in the audience with observers. Arthur Mutumbara was also
sitting in the observer section, but he and Tsvangirai never
publicly acknowledged each other. Mugabe often appeared
bored and seemed to be sleeping for large parts of Sunday's
events. True to his word, Botswanan President Ian Khama
refused to attend the summit in protest of SADC's recognition
of Mugabe as President. Numerous diplomats commented on how
surreal the event was given the lack of discussion on
Zimbabwe. A British diplomat noted the irony of invited
guests and heads of state eating a lavish meal on Saturday
evening and dancing away to Louis Armstrong's "What a
Wonderful World," giving the impression that all was well in
Zimbabwe.


4. (C) Zimbabwe was mentioned several times during the
summit, but mostly in passing. The strongest public
statement came from Zambia's Foreign Minister Pande, who read
a statement on behalf of Zambian President Mwanawasa, calling
Qa statement on behalf of Zambian President Mwanawasa, calling
Mugabe's reelection in the June poll a "blot on the culture
of democracy." Both Mbeki and SADC Chair of NGOs also
mentioned that the democratic crisis in Zimbabwe must be
resolved, but both lumped the Zimbabwe crisis with the
electoral dispute in Lesotho, the constitutional dispute in
Malawi, and the "problems" in the Democratic Republic of
Congo. At the end of the summit, a somewhat
self-congratulatory communique was issued noting that the
"summit recognized that the region had managed to consolidate
peace and democracy in SADC," and that "with regards to the
ongoing challenges in Zimbabwe, the summit noted the outcomes
of the Extraordinary Summit of the Organ held in the course
of the Summit (emailed to AF/S),and reaffirmed its
commitment to work with the people of Zimbabwe in order to
overcome the challenges they are facing."


5. (C) After the summit, the SADC Troika gathered again to
discuss Zimbabwe, according to President Mbeki. According to
Sydney Masamvu (protect),Tsvangirai met with the Troika one
last time late on Sunday night and rejected their proposal

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(NFI). Tsvangirai offered a counter-proposal in which he
would become President under the current deal and Mugabe
could become Prime Minister, but Mugabe refused, said
Masamvu. After the Troika realized progress was not to be
had, Mbeki spoke to the press, hailing the summit as "very
successful" and noted that SADC appealed to all parties to
sign any outstanding agreements and conclude negotiations
urgently to restore political stability. He also said that
it may be "necessary to reconvene Parliament to give effect
to the will of the people expressed in the parliamentary
elections held on March 29 2008" while negotiations continue.
Journalists at the summit have heard that parliament may be
convened as early as next week, and believe such a move would
give Mugabe even more stature. (COMMENT: Section 9 of the
Memorandum of Understanding, which laid the groundrules for
the current round of talks, specifically states that parties
shall not take any decisions that have a bearing on the
agenda of the negotiations, including convening Parliament,
without all parties' concensus. END COMMENT) Mbeki also
said that the SADC Troika will continue to meet with the
leaders of Zimbabwe to find a speedy solution, that he will
remain facilitator, and that SADC is still wary of outsiders
imposing any solutions on Zimbabwe.

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TSVANGIRAI DISSATISFIED WITH OFFER
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6. (C) In a press conference on 16 August, Tsvangirai made no
secret of his dissatisfaction with the deal proposed to him,
saying the two sides remain unable to agree on how power
would be divided between him and Mugabe. According to the
Associated Press which claims to have obtained a copy of
Tsvangirai's talking points to SADC members, Tsvangirai and
Mugabe agreed to become prime minister and president
respectively. However, Tsvangirai envisions that the prime
minister must chair the cabinet and be responsible for the
formulation, execution, and administration of government
business, including appointing and dismissing his ministers.
Tsvangirai also allegedly proposed that the president have no
power to veto laws, but can remain commander in chief of
defense forces provided he acts on advice of prime minister.
In the end, Tsvangirai told the press that the current deal
on the table does not give him enough executive power to run
the government effectively and that he would prefer no deal
rather than a bad one. Press reports also note that the MDC
has asked for a clause stating that if one of the parties
pulled out of the government of national unity, elections
would be held within 90 days.

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SADC FREE TRADE AREA "LAUNCHED"
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7. (C) Twelve SADC nations set up a free trade area (FTA) in
an effort to bolster regional trade and economic integration
for a market of 247 million people and an economy worth more
than $430 billion. The bloc includes Botswana, Lesotho,
Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South
Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Angola,
Seychelles, and Democratic Republic of Congo have yet to sign
the agreement. According to SADC's executive secretary,
Tomas Salomao, the FTA required a lot of compromise to be
QTomas Salomao, the FTA required a lot of compromise to be
made over a number of sensitive issues, including requiring
member states to relinquish some of their sovereignty. As of
January 2008, duties on 85 percent of their goods had been
abolished, meeting WTO's definition of a free trade area.
The remaining 15 percent of trade shall be liberalized by

2012. All remaining tariffs are due to be scrapped by 2012,
at which time a customs union will be in place. They also
plan to have a monetary union by 2016, and a single common
currency by 2018. Press reports note that SAG officials have
already started meeting today to find ways of addressing
trade barriers, including lifting all visa requirements which
are said to hinder regional integration.


8. (C) Mbeki hailed the launch as a milestone, saying
regional economic cooperation and integration gives the
region's countries the opportunity to pool their limited
resources and build an economic base to address challenges of
economic growth and development. However, numerous speakers
pointed out the challenges facing a FTA. Salomao counted low
productivity, low capacity, high unemployment levels, and low
volumes of trade within SADC, noting 90 percent of exports
consist of unprocessed goods, including minerals and
agricultural products, as weak spots. He also said that
SADC's share of world trade is only one percent. Even Mbeki

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also pointed out that trade liberalization will be difficult
as some of its member states have signed separate trade deals
(economic partnership agreements or EPAs) with the EU. In
his final closing, he said that EPA will have a profound --
even limiting -- impact on the process of deepening
integration at the regional level. (COMMENT: Mbeki noted
that in April 2000, SADC decided to have a free trade zone
by 2008, making the "launch" appear more symbolic than real.
END NOTE)

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Despite Mbeki's claim that the summit was a success,
media and international and diplomatic observers left the
summit palpably disappointed. For some reason, it was
commonly thought among international observers that a
conclusion would have to be reached before Mbeki took over as
SADC Chair since Mbeki "could" not be both Chair and report
to himself. That problem seems solved, with Mbeki reporting
his progress to the SADC Troika. Tsvangirai, however, must
be even more disappointed. After briefing SADC members on
the current state of play on Friday, Tsvangirai seemed
optimistic on Saturday, implying he had been encouraged.
However, in retrospect, SADC's acceptance of Mugabe should
not have come at a surprise given past SADC summits and more
recently, the AU summit in Sharm-el-Shaik, where Mugabe also
was received as President.


10. (C) Tsvangirai is obviously under tremendous pressure
from SADC members to cave. The longer Tsvangirai holds out,
the higher the risk he will be seen (if not already) within
SADC as the spoiler. Mbeki's final statements to the press
hint at this as they seem more directed at pressuring
Tsvangirai to sign the last outstanding agreements -- as if
they were insignificant -- rather than encouraging Mugabe to
cede authority. On a larger scale, this summit more than any
other shows that SADC members -- save Botswana and Zambia --
will stick together in the face of external pressure.
BOST