STANDOFF CONTINUES AS CZECH PARLIAMENT VOTES DOWN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000792

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2018
TAGS: MOPS PREL PGOV EUN NATO AF EZ
SUBJECT: STANDOFF CONTINUES AS CZECH PARLIAMENT VOTES DOWN
AFGHAN DEPLOYMENT BILL

REF: A. PRAGUE 779

B. 18 DECEMBER 2008 PRAGUE DAILY

C. 22 DECEMBER 2008 STRONG-TRATENSEK E-MAILS (NOTAL)

D. STATE 108855

Classified By: DCM Mary Thompson-Jones, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The political standoff on Czech troop
deployments to Afghanistan and other foreign missions between
PM Mirek Topolanek and main opposition Social Democrat (CSSD)
leader Jiri Paroubek continued on December 19, when
parliament's lower house failed to approve a resolution
authorizing deployments past December 31 (the Czech Senate
has already approved). PM Topolanek's government immediately
temporarily extended the deployments for 60 days. Parliament
can reconsider the deployment issue, but there is currently
no date set. The standoff could also affect Czech security
support for Afghan elections. In the end, continued Czech
deployments will depend on an agreement between the PM and
Paroubek; given the level of distrust between the two, such a
deal may not come quickly. End Summary.

Agreement Fails Amid Procedural Squabble
--------------


2. (C) Opposition leader Paroubek had insisted that he would
not release his MPs to support the resolution unless PM
Topolanek's Civic Democrat (ODS) government agreed to support
CSSD's health care reform package (ref A). The government
agreed (ref B),and parliament took up both measures on
December 19.


3. (C) However, the CSSD and ODS could not agree on the
order in which the two measures would be considered. Amid
this procedural squabble, parliament voted on deployments
first, CSSD refused to budge, and the resolution only got 99
votes, two shy of the required 101. The lower house then
approved the health care measure, with support from some of
PM Topolanek's own MPs. Immediately following the vote, PM
Topolanek's cabinet met in special session and extended
deployments for 60 days, the first time any Czech government
has invoked this constitutional power (ref C). (Note: Czech
legal experts doubt that the government may repeatedly invoke
this provision to indefinitely extend deployments. End
Note.)

No Date for Re-Vote
--------------


4. (C) In order for parliament to reconsider the deployment
issue, the government must now draft a new resolution and
re-send it to parliament. The government could try to
sweeten the deal for the opposition by proposing even lower
numbers for Afghanistan than in the failed resolution.


5. (C) Parliament is currently out of session; the next
regular session is set to begin February 3. Parliament could
convene in special session before then, but there is
currently no date set and calling a special session would be
pointless unless the government can be sure of opposition
support. CSSD MP Jan Svoboda, deputy chair of the defense
committee, told us after the December 19 vote that he does
not expect a special session before the end of January.

Military Planning
--------------


6. (C) Media quoted Czech Chief of General Staff Vlastimil
Picek as saying that he would have to order the beginning of
withdrawal if there is no parliamentary approval by the end
of January. According to Defense Ministry sources, PM
Topolanek called each contingent commander on December 20,
telling them that there is no change in their current
missions. However, privately, Czech General Staff contacts
have told us they are drafting "contingency plans" for a mass
redeployment, but that such plans are secret and only to be
used in a worst case scenario.


7. (U) According to Czech media, the Czech Government will
propose a new plan with reduced numbers to the Czech
parliament by mid-January. This reduced plan will cap Czech
troops in Afghanistan in 2009 to around 500, essentially the
same number they currently have on the ground.


PRAGUE 00000792 002 OF 002


Support for Afghan Elections
--------------


8. (SBU) The standoff could also affect Czech support for
Afghan elections, as yet unscheduled. Emboff conveyed points
in ref D to Czech MFA desk officer for Afghanistan, Jan
Husak. Husak indicated that upcoming elections in
Afghanistan, as well as the anticipated security support
needed from ISAF is an issue that his office, as well as the
MFA Security Policy department is following closely. He
noted that the Czech NATO mission has been discussing this
with NATO counterparts. He also noted that EU Special
Representative Ettori Sequi would be in Prague for
discussions with Czech MFA officials on December 22.
Finally, he also commented that Afghanistan is a topic that
the EU will discuss at the January 26-27 General Affairs and
External Relations Council (GAERC).


9. (C) Comment: This standoff is about Czech domestic
politics. In the end, Czech deployments will depend on
another agreement between Topolanek and Paroubek. Topolanek
is committed to deployments and needs no further pressure to
do the right thing. Paroubek is committed to personal
domestic political advantage. The December 19 procedural
fight reflects the depth of distrust between the two, and
suggests that any such deal will not be quick in coming. End
Comment.
Thompson-Jones