SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF DEPUTY SECRETARY OF DEFENSE AND

UNCLAS PORT OF SPAIN 000443

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OVIP MARR MASS PREL PGOV PTER ASEC ECON TD
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF DEPUTY SECRETARY OF DEFENSE AND
SOUTHCOM DEPUTY COMMANDER GENERAL SPEARS

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY


1. (SBU) Embassy Port of Spain warmly welcomes your mid-October visit
to Trinidad and Tobago. Your trip is an opportunity to heighten
bilateral and regional security cooperation, building on last June's
Technical Meeting of Military Commanders, Defense Ministerial of the
Americas conversations, and Secretary Rice's September 25 initiation of
a U.S.-Caribbean security dialogue. It also comes at a time when
Trinidad is "punching above its weight" by preparing to host next
April's Summit of the Americas and the November 2009 Commonwealth Heads
of Government Meeting. In addition, Prime Minister Manning is
spearheading efforts to hasten Caribbean economic, political and
security integration. While your final schedule is under discussion,
we expect it will include Manning, Minister of National Security Martin
Joseph, Chief of Defense Edmund Dillon and, time permitting, a T&T
official working on Summit of the Americas security.

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POLITICAL SNAPSHOT
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2. (U) Manning's People's National Movement (PNM) party retained its
parliamentary majority when T&T citizens voted November 5, 2007. The
PNM won 26 seats to the opposition United National Congress' (UNC) 15.
With a secure parliamentary majority, Manning need not call another
election until 2012. The new Congress of the People (COP) party also
contested the election, scoring relatively well in the popular vote but
winning no seats. The PNM and UNC are heavily, but not exclusively,
based on ethnicity, with the PNM supported largely by Afro-Trinidadians
and the UNC by Indo-Trinidadians. The COP also draws mostly from
Indo-Trinidadians, though it consciously sought (as did the other
parties) to cross ethnic lines. Even though the PNM holds a majority,
passing critical legislation can be difficult due to required "super
majorities" on bills impacting constitutional rights. This is
sometimes the case with security bills.

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SECURITY LEADERSHIP
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3. (SBU) Security issues, and especially a spiraling murder rate, were
a major focus of the November 2007 elections. In the almost year since
that vote, these concerns have only grown in importance. As such, GOTT
officials remain centered on reducing crime, seeing this "war" as a
two-front problem encompassing the battle within Trinidad's borders,
but also transnational/regional threats, including drug trafficking.
This conceptualization has led Manning to push efforts at regional
security cooperation, most notably last April when he hosted several
Caribbean heads of government to advance this effort and in the
subsequent June Military Commanders Technical Meeting that included the
U.S., UK, France and the Netherlands. As the Caribbean country with
the most vibrant economy, Manning sees T&T as the natural leader in
this push, bolstered by his formal role inside CARICOM as security lead

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CRIME AND NARCOTICS TRAFFICKING
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4. (SBU) The reason for T&T's narcotics trafficking concern can
sometimes be glimpsed with the naked eye on clear days. Trinidad is
just seven miles off the coast of Venezuela at its closest point,
making drug trafficking a major challenge. Narcotics from South America
transit its waters or move through its airports. The narcotics trade
may be linked to the rising number of murders (over 400 so far this
year) and other violent crimes that plague the country as weapons enter
T&T utilizing the same routes. The government faces a tough battle in
trying to control these problems, exacerbated by inadequate border
controls, corruption in the police service and a slow judiciary. T&T's
vibrant petrochemical industry also has the potential to provide
diverted precursor chemicals for use in illegal drug production. The
country's growing economy and well-developed banking, communications
and transportation systems, facilitate a significant number of sizeable
financial transactions that can obscure money laundering.

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TERRORISM
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5. (SBU) T&T has a considerable Muslim minority, comprising six to ten
percent of the population. The majority of Muslims are moderate, but
there are a few radicals (witness the JFK case) and some Trinidad
Muslims send their children to foreign madrasses and fundamentalist
missionaries do come to T&T. The most famous of Trinidad's radical
Muslim organizations, though now seen as more of a criminal gang, is
the Jamaat al-Muslimeen, a local Afro-Trinidadian group that launched a
violent failed coup attempt in 1990. T&T is party to eleven of the
twelve UN anti-terror conventions, and in September 2005 passed
anti-terrorism legislation. Elsewhere, T&T has come into compliance
with the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS),and

the T&T Central Bank cooperates with Post in alerting financial
institutions to potential sources of terrorist finance.

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ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
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6. (U) T&T has a vibrant industrialized economy, buoyed by relatively
large natural gas reserves. It is our largest trading partner in the
Caribbean and the leading beneficiary of Caribbean Basin Initiative
trade preferences. While fiscal policy has generally been restrained,
rising spending coupled with a tight labor market have contributed to
rising inflation, which reached 11.7 percent year-on-year in July 2008,
a fourteen-year high. T&T is considered a low-risk investment
destination. With inflation in double digits, its energy sector flat,
and several manufacturing sub sectors registering contractions, T&T
announced a revised 2008 real GDP growth estimate of 3.5%. This
represents a sharp downward revision from the IMF's April estimate of
5.85% and a dramatic slowdown from the average 9% growth over the
previous five years. The T&T dollar remains stable in value against
the U.S. dollar (at about 6.2/dollar),contributing to the country's
attractiveness to foreign investment. Standard & Poor has raised its
credit rating for T&T to A- in 2005 and confirmed that rating in 2006
and 2007. The GOTT regularly courts foreign investors, with U.S.
companies often taking the lead.

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A CLOSER LOOK AT ENERGY
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7. (U) Oil was discovered in Trinidad in the mid-19th century, and the
local energy industry is celebrating the 100th anniversary of
commercial oil production in 2008. After riding the oil boom and bust
cycle of the 1970s and 1980s, T&T has made a major transition over the
last ten years to an economy driven largely by natural gas, both for
export and for consumption in domestic industries, attracting major
foreign investment projects in liquefied natural gas (LNG),
petrochemicals, steel, aluminum, and plastics. T&T also continues to
play a role in regional energy security, supplying refined petroleum
products to the rest of the Caribbean, although competition from
Venezuela backed by concessionary financing is eroding its regional
market share.


8. (U) T&T provides roughly two-thirds of the United States' imports of
LNG, playing an important role in our energy security. For this
reason, USG agencies recently conducted a vulnerability assessment
aimed at improving protection of critical infrastructure in T&T's
energy sector, an initiative that enjoys full cooperation from the GOTT
and energy sector companies. USG agencies intend to remain engaged as
the GOTT implements our recommendations over the next eighteen months.
The GOTT also worked with the U.S. Department of Energy and U.S.
Southern Command to host a regional energy infrastructure protection
conference in Port of Spain on May 14-15.

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REGIONAL INTEGRATION
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9. (SBU) PM Manning is a strong backer of CARICOM integration. In
August, he met with leaders from St Lucia, Grenada and St Vincent and
the Grenadines to draft a declaration of support for political and
economic integration. Although other CARICOM members like Barbados,
Jamaica, and the Bahamas stated they were not interested, Organization
of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) members all have expressed their
support. The goal of this effort is economic integration by 2011 and
political integration, perhaps along the lines of the EU model, by

2013.

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THE SUMMIT PROCESS
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10. (SBU) As noted, Manning also is raising T&T's international profile
by hosting the Fifth Summit of the Americas (SOA) in April 2009 and the
Commonwealth Summit in about six months later. T&T has assembled a
capable team to manage these meetings, under the leadership of Luis
Alberto Rodriguez. Bilateral dialogue on themes and concepts for the
Summit has been constructive. Nevertheless, some differences may
manifest themselves in declaration negotiations. These may include how
to manage "food security," and its connection to energy and biofuels,
and how much to "give" to Venezuela (with whom it shares some
unexploited cross-border gas fields) on its Summit concerns. Summit
logistics also will pose a major challenge.

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POLICY DIFFERENCES
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11. (SBU) Though a friend to the U.S., there are specific areas of
policy difference. Due in part to former President Robinson's role as
a "father" of the International Criminal
Court (ICC),T&T has not signed an Article 98 agreement with the U.S.
and likely never will. While not taken with the systems in either
Venezuela or Cuba, T&T seeks to maintain positive ties with each of
those nations and is an advocate of dialogue between Washington and
Caracas and Havana. Its voting record at the U.N. also leaves much to
be desired from a U.S. policy perspective, though it is in line with
its CARICOM partners.

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CONCLUSION
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12. (SBU) T&T remains an important ally, trading partner and regional
leader whose centrality will grow over the coming months as we approach
the April Summit and act to bolster security cooperation. We look
forward to facilitating a successful visit.

AUSTIN