CRIME PROBLEM ROILS NEW YEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT OF SPAIN 000023

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2013
TAGS: ASEC KCRM SNAR SOCI TD
SUBJECT: CRIME PROBLEM ROILS NEW YEAR

REF: 07 PORT OF SPAIN 1205

CLASSIFIED BY: DCM LEN KUSNITZ; REASON 1.4 (B AND D)



1. (SBU) Summary: With a record number of 388 homicides in 2007 and 14
new homicides by January 8, 2008, crime remains a front burner issue.
The media misquoted National Security Minister Martin Joseph in early
January as stating the GOTT had failed in all its efforts to combat
crime, setting off a new round of commentary on the crime situation.
Joseph and the Prime Minister subsequently sought to correct the record
amid partisan sniping. Top security officials met at a retreat the
weekend of January 5-6 to discuss anti-crime strategies, and an
embattled Joseph gave an emotional recap of the GOTT's efforts in
parliamentary remarks January 7. One reputable analyst argues that the
crime problem is both "structural and sociological" and the Minister's
efforts have to be judged in context. Others blame the government for
failure after failure. With Carnival approaching, the public remains
wary and the government continues considering its options. End Summary

Most Homicides Ever


2. (U) Trinidad and Tobago finished 2007 with a spate of homicides
that brought the total to at least 388, although some media say the
total is actually 392 or 395. Any of these figures is an increase over
371 homicides in 2006 and 386 (the previous record) in 2005. Although
approximately half of these are gang-related, the sheer number of
violent deaths, regardless of motive, continues to alarm and appall the
public. Many speak of the psychological toll of the violence, making
persons concerned over their safety and that of their children, and
self-curtailing activities out of fear.

Media: Government has failed


3. (U) During a January 3 press conference at the Ministry of National
Security, Joseph noted that some measures the GOTT had put in place to
fight crime in 2007 had not succeeded, and added the government planned
to conduct an extensive review of its crime fighting efforts and
procedures. All three major daily newspapers January 4 carried large
headlines asserting that Joseph said the government had failed utterly
to combat crime. In response, the Ministry of National Security issued
a press release on January 5 emphatically denying the GOTT had failed
to combat crime or that Joseph had said the GOTT had failed. On the
same day, under press questioning, Prime Minister Patrick Manning
denied his administration was contemplating declaring a limited state
of emergency due to the crime situation.

GOTT Weekend Retreat


4. (C) Joseph and a number of high ranking police and military officers
met from the afternoon of Friday, January 4 through Sunday, January 6
at Salybia Beach Resort to discuss the situation, but reportedly did
not arrive at any new measures or initiatives. The retreat drew some
sniping from the media, which portrayed officials as lounging around
while crime raged unchecked. Prior to that session, and at the request
of a government official, the Embassy passed some suggested legislative
and procedural changes for the security forces to consider that could
help in the anti-crime battle.

Statistics Show Decrease in Some Crimes


5. (SBU) Although homicides were at an all time high in 2007,
government figures state there were year-over-year decreases in some
types of serious crimes:

2006 2007

Homicides 371 388
Woundings and Shootings 657 645
Sexual Offenses 903 759
Serious Indecency 81 66
Burglaries 4973 4851
Abductions 214 162
Kidnappings for Ransom 16 13
Thefts of Motor Vehicles 1496 1740

Skepticism over these claims, however, is widespread, with some arguing
many crimes go unreported. This is either because victims assume
reporting the crime would be futile, or because some victims fear the
police are actually in league with criminals and not to be trusted.
One analyst also argued that kidnappings were down because many
potential victims had either emigrated from TT or were paying
protection money to gangs. However, the skeptics have produced no hard
evidence on the extent of under-reporting, emigration, or protection
money paid in any year.

Speaker Denies Opposition Request for Crime Debate


6. (SBU) Opposition Whip Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj of the United
National Congress (UNC) read a statement in Parliament January 7
decrying the "state of lawlessness and anarchy" prevailing in Trinidad
and Tobago, and requested the crime situation be debated as a matter of
"urgent national importance." House Speaker Barendra Sinanan, however,
denied this request on grounds that the situation was not sufficiently
important, specific and urgent to justify suspending normal House
business in order to conduct the debate. Though the opposition
continues to claim the Speaker's ruling was arbitrary and biased,
others note it was in conformity with the Parliamentary rules.

Security Minister Defends Record


7. (SBU) In an emotional January 7 parliamentary presentation that
followed Maharaj's attempted gambit, Joseph adamantly denied the GOTT
had failed to address crime, or that he had ever said the government
had failed, stating crime numbers were down in all categories except
homicide and auto theft. He observed that TT's proximity to Venezuela
meant both drugs and guns were pouring into the country and that
combating this was a complex problem. The Minister then recapped a
number of measures the GOTT has instituted to fight crime, including
"transforming" the Police Service, increasing joint police/army
patrols, heightening gang surveillance and bolstering intelligence
gathering. He further promised to build 18 new police stations over
the next three years, which led to opposition hectoring since the
construction of the initial five "model" police stations is far behind
schedule.


8. (SBU) When the floor was opened to debate, UNC MP Roodal Moonilal
read aloud a mock resignation letter to PM Manning from Joseph and then
invited the Minister to sign the note. Moonilal also attempted to
refute Joseph's earlier remarks, stating that TT needed short-term
basic solutions to crime rather than grand plans. The government bench
pointed out that the mere summation of what the GOTT was already doing
belied opposition claims of inaction. Prime Minister Manning later
told the press he did not find the oppositionQs behavior to be serious
and characterized MoonilalQs intervention as the monologue of a
stand-up comic. Subsequent to the January 7 Parliamentary session, the
GOTT also has been publicizing the measures underway mentioned in
JosephQs speech and also noting what was new in his presentation.

Business Groups Concerned


9. (C) Business leaders also increased their rhetoric on crime over
the last week, with a conclave of private sector groups issuing a
statement calling for greater government action on crime. One industry
source told us that the communique was calibrated in a way so as to not
rile the government, but to seek to encourage anti-crime actions.
Another local business group met with the Prime Minister January 8 and,
among other issues, raised its serious concerns over the deteriorating
security situation. Manning reportedly told the group that getting the
security forces to combat crime was both a "leadership and management"
problem and that he was considering replacing the entire top layer of
the police force with foreign officials and "catapulting" some
excellent junior officers into higher positions. The Prime Minister
also told the group that his government was looking at legislative
changes that might facilitate such a plan. (Note: The GOTT is looking
for a new Commissioner of Police - the current Commissioner was due to
retire last November and has been temporarily extended in place - and
has made no secret that it intends to consider non-Trini candidates.)

Analysts Weigh In


10. (SBU) While the partisan sniping from the opposition seeks to
piggyback on real public concerns, at least one respected analyst has
taken the position that Minister Joseph is being unjustly targeted. In
a January 8 press interview, analyst John La Guerre opined that the
problem was not Minister Joseph - who has been "far more honest" in his
assessments than past National Security Ministers - but rather
"structural and sociological" problems in society. To La Guerre the
crime spiral "has a lot to do with the sudden increase in wealth in the
country, thereby making the drug trade more lucrative than it has been
in the past. What we are witnessing is the incapacity to cope with
the problem in the short-term." Some other commentators, however, are
less willing to give the Minister the benefit of the doubt and continue
lambasting him and the government for failure to get a handle on the
crime situation. An intermediate position among a few gave the
government some credit for its actions, but found it still wanting and
also lamented problems in the court system as a contributing factor to
societal lawlessness.

Comment: Playing for Time


11. (C) As noted in reftel, crime remains a major preoccupation and is
harped on constantly by the media. With 14 homicides in the first
eight days of January, TT is averaging close to two violent deaths a
day. With its recently reconfirmed majority, though, the PNM-led
government so far seems content to play for time while it considers
options and waits for the measures already underway (and a few new ones
underway and under consideration) to have an effect. Manning said as
much in early January when he told the press his government's goal is
to "completely eradicate" the drug trade that he sees as responsible
for the criminal surge. The current year, though, will be a "period of
transition," and "the measures we are putting in place will have the
desired effect in due course." In this regard, the GOTT may be banking
on the public's being distracted soon by the current pre-Carnival
"party" season and giving it and its beleaguered National Security
Minister a temporary respite.

AUSTIN