ANATOMY OF A DECISION: WHY PREVAL WENT WITH TI-BOB

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PORT AU PRINCE 000824

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV KINR KDEM HA
SUBJECT: ANATOMY OF A DECISION: WHY PREVAL WENT WITH TI-BOB

REF: A. PAP 764

B. PAP 701

Classified By: Ambassador Janet A. Sanderson, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Recent discussions with President Preval's
friends and advisors indicate that he selected Bob Manuel as
his second Prime Ministerial candidate, following the
rejection of Ericq Pierre by the Lower House, after being
pressed by associates to dump the putative front runner,
Planning Minister Jean-Max Bellerive. Other candidates
disqualified themselves by lobbying too hard, thus irritating
the stubborn president, or stating that they were not
interested in the job. Manuel apparently played somewhat hard
to get. Although Manuel's fate has yet to be decided, what we
know about the process that led to his nomination says much
about Preval - and the environment in which he operates. End
Summary.

Introduction
--------------


2. (C) Discussions with Rene Preval's intimates and close
advisors during the past week have allowed us to piece
together an outline of the process which saw Bob Manuel
emerging as Preval's new Prime Ministerial nominee. Although
the nomination's fate is still uncertain, the personalities,
pressures and preoccupations that played into the president's
decision-making process speak volumes about Rene Preval. It
also highlights the dense skein of relationships and
interests which shape all decisions here. Haiti's friends
ignore these influences at their peril; they have tripped up
many an outsider in the past.

Lining Up
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3. (C) Friends and close political associates tell us that
Preval waffled about next steps following Parliament's
rejection of IDB official Ericq Pierre as the Prime Minister
candidate. Unsure whether to pick a technocrat or politico,
Preval's short list included Minister of Plan Jean-Max
Bellerive, Ministry of Agriculture Director General Jonas
Gue, and Presidential Secretary General Fritz Longchamps.
Other names, including Preval's former business partner and
FOKAL Director Michelle Pierre-Louis, floated to the surface
as well.


4. (C) Jean-Max Bellerive appeared to have the upper hand
after Pierre retired from the scene, but Preval remained
reluctant to commit. He instead continued to canvass private
sector and political party leaders on possible names. There
were those around Preval who thought he leaned towards close
friend and counselor Bob Manuel, but told us that Preval had
dismissed the idea early on when key Senators advised him
Manuel would not pass Parliament. Furthermore, Preval was not
convinced that the former State Secretary for Public Security
had the economic experience for the job. He was also
reluctant to put Manuel in the position of having to shill
for votes with a parliament that distrusted him. Other
candidates had drawbacks as well: Gue's blatant lobbying for
the post, particularly following his trip to Venezuela,
angered Preval. Michelle Pierre-Louis took herself out of the
running, saying firmly that she wouldn't work for Preval.
Bellerive, in many ways, appeared a the most attractive,
experienced candidate.


With Friends Like These...
--------------


5. (C) Not everyone was convinced, however. Bellerive's
candidacy disquieted Preval's close friends, business leaders
Carl Braun and Edouard Bassan. Worried that a Bellerive
candidacy would favor their business rivals, the Mevs family,
Braun (Preval's single largest known financial contributor)
intervened. He reminded the president of Bellerive's father's
long service with the Mevs Company and apparently suggested
that this would impact Bellerive's decision on future
decisions relating to privatization of the ports.
Braun/Bassan and the Mevs family are competing for this sale,
should it go through. He further noted the current security
environment demanded a strong law-and-order candidate.
Although sources deny that Braun's pitch was so blatant,
Bassan himself acknowledged that he and Braun were indeed
uncomfortable with the Bellerive candidacy. He made pointed
reference to the minister's close associations with Lavalas

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and, by extension, with Aristide.


6. (C) Bellerive's bid was further compromised by his close
association with former PM Jacques-Edouard Alexis. The
Preval/Alexis relationship had irretrievably collapsed under
the weight of the Parliamentary vote of no-confidence in
April and the two were not speaking. Preval believed reports
that Bellerive had spread around money in parliament to stave
off Alexis's first interpellation vote and attempted to block
the second. Some parliamentarians spoke out against him as
well. Too closely identified with Alexis, Preval saw the
Planning Minister as a liability and privately told his
colleagues that he didn't like being pushed towards
Bellerive.

Pillow Talk?
--------------


7. (C) Closer to home, Preval's fiance lobbied hard for
Manuel. Although Manuel had led the effort to move Elisabeth
(Babette) Delatour out of the palace last Christmas when her
presence was beginning to negatively impact the president,
she opted to support him over the candidate backed by her
former in-laws. Manuel himself told me, in some surprise,
that he had Delatour's support. At the same time, Preval's
closest friend, a Haitian-American living in New York,
weighed in on Manuel's behalf. Bernard Fils-Aime, a close
friend from the private sector counseled Preval that "you
need a strong candidate, but you are going to have to give
him independence and authority and trust." He added that
choosing Manuel in the current security climate would send a
strong message to Haitians.

Don't Count Your Chickens
--------------


8. (C) Preval found himself increasingly hemmed in by the
Bellerive candidacy. With rumors flying that the Minister was
a shoo-in, reports began to circulate that Bellerive had
already made deals with members of Parliament and the
political parties for Cabinet positions. Graffiti appeared on
Port-au-Prince walls supporting the Planning Minister and
press commentaries already had him in office. Preval balked,
offering the job to Manuel at some point on Saturday, May 24.


Playing Hard to Get?
--------------


9. (C) Manuel, however, played hard to get. Ti-Bob, as he
is known to his intimates, has a long association with Preval
but they have had a fraught relationship. Indeed, frustrated
by the president's lack of support and his obsession with
Delatour, Manuel quit the country in April of last year. He
vowed not to return until the president gave him a serious
job. Manuel stayed away for more than four months. He
returned last fall on a sporadic basis but often traveled
back to Guatemala City where his wife, a Guatemalan
journalist, and their two young sons live. Currently serving
as the president's security advisor, he plays many roles and
recently involved himself in the efforts to finalize
preparations for long-delayed Senatorial elections. During
the past six months, he has privately expressed frustration
with the President's tendency to prevaricate, telling me
during the April riots that if Preval didn't get on the radio
and quiet the crowds, his presidency was over. Mercurial,
hard-headed and voluble, Manuel is one of the few people who
can tell Rene Preval no - if he wants to.


10. (C) But was Bob Manuel truly reluctant? Although he
repeatedly told us that he had no desire for a political
post, others report that Manuel used the ten days between
Pierre's fall and the nomination announcement to cultivate
key members of the Parliament and burnish his credentials
with Lespwa, Preval's political platform. He finally said yes
to Preval Saturday night, after getting the go-ahead from his
wife. But there were conditions to his acceptance of the
offer. According to palace sources, Manuel told the
President that he expected him to help him sell his candidacy
to Parliament. He also asked for independence in selecting
his cabinet and agreed to set up a council of economic
advisors. It remains to be seen whether Preval will meet
these conditions.

'Round Midnight
--------------


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11. (C) With Manuel still pondering the offer, Preval met
with representatives of political parties, civil society and
the private sector through the weekend of May 24-26. Many
left those meetings as late as Sunday morning with the
impression that Bellerive was the intended candidate. The
Minister certainly thought so, telling us that he continued
to work on his nominating papers through the day. However,
shortly before midnight on Sunday, May 25, as most of Haiti
slept, the official announcement nominating Robert Manuel as
prime minister was made. It is unclear whether Preval let
Bellerive know in advance.
SANDERSON