Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08PODGORICA88
2008-03-13 16:52:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Podgorica
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: MEET THE CANDIDATES

Tags:  PGOV PREL MW 
pdf how-to read a cable
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TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: MEET THE CANDIDATES

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SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: MEET THE CANDIDATES

REF: PODGORICA 013 AND PREVIOUS

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The deadline for registration for Montenegro's
presidential election is March 17, but the identities of the
four leading candidates have been clear for some time. (The
first round of the election will be April 6, with an if-needed
second round on April 20). The contenders are incumbent
President Vujanovic of the ruling Democratic Party of
Socialists, Nebojsa Medojevic of the centrist Movement for
Change, Andrija Mandic of the Serbian People's Party, and Srdjan
Milic of the Socialist People's Party. A recent poll shows
President Vujanovic potentially within reach of a first round
victory, with Medojevic and Mandic vying for second place. END
SUMMARY.




2. (SBU) Four candidates have gathered the required 7,266
signatures (1.5 percent of voters) to register for the April 6
presidential elections. (Note: Two independents are still
attempting to gather signatures. One, Dragan Hajdukovic, a
physicist living in Switzerland, received more than four percent
of the vote in the 2003 presidential election, but should not be
a factor in this race even if he manages to register. The other
independent, Dragic Bulatovic, is an unemployed worker.) The
four contenders are:



President Filip Vujanovic

--------------




3. (SBU) The incumbent President, 54, represents the ruling
Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). A graduate of the
Belgrade Law Faculty, he served as Minister of Justice and then
Interior from 1993 to 1998 and was Prime Minister from 1998
until 2002, when he became Speaker of Parliament. Vujanovic was
elected President in May 2003 with 64 percent of the vote.




4. (SBU) Vujanovic's incumbency did not prevent a noisy campaign
to nominate DPS leader Milo Djukanovic for the presidency, as
DPS supporters worried that the low key Vujanovic lacks the
charisma and nationalist credentials to mobilize the party's
base. Vujanovic is no lightweight, however: he has the lowest
negative ratings of any of the four candidates and a relatively
clean image. His support for the Serbian Orthodox Church also
makes him less objectionable for Montenegro's large Serb
community. Vujanovic has also made regular efforts to reach out

to the ethnic Albanian community in Montenegro. Finally,
Djukanovic's election as PM has reassured the DPS base, and the
backing of the party's formidable political and patronage
machine makes Vujanovic the overwhelming frontrunner.



Nebojsa Medojevic, Movement for Change (PzP)

--------------




5. (SBU) Medojevic, now 42, graduated with a degree in
electrical engineering from the University of Montenegro in 1991
and subsequently worked as a consultant for the GoM's Agency for
Restructuring and Foreign Investments. He co-founded the "Group
for Change" NGO in 2002 to lobby for economic and democratic
reforms. In 2006, Medojevic turned the NGO into a political
party, the Movement for Change (PzP). Competing for the first
time in the September 2006 parliamentary election, the PzP
received 13 percent of the vote, making the new party the second
largest in Parliament (after the PM's DPS).




6. (SBU) The ambitious and charismatic Medojevic appeals to
moderates weary of the DPS stranglehold on political power. His
anti-DPS electoral campaign focuses on economic issues and
corruption. His chief challenge is that he lacks a set
electorate and party structure (he was the last of the four
contenders to submit signatures despite being the first to
declare). He also tends to pander and is hard to pin down on
controversial issues, including Kosovo and NATO. Ironically,
his one principled stand -- support for the new Constitution --
enabled opposition rivals to cast him as a traitor, and could
hurt him with pro-Serb voters, particularly if he makes it to
the second round.



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Andrija Mandic, Serbian People's Party (SNS)

--------------




7. (SBU) Mandic, 43, heads both the SNS, Montenegro's largest
pro-Serb party, and the Serbian List political alliance. He has
a degree in metallurgy from the University of Podgorica. After
graduation, he founded a company which designed, produced, and
installed aluminum molding. Mandic joined the SNS in 1997 and
served as Deputy Minister of Economy of the FRY from 2000 to

2001.




8. (SBU) Mandic has a stable and committed electorate of
anti-independence Serbs. This is also a weakness, since his
strident rhetoric and identification with Serb issues sharply
limits his appeal beyond his base. His critics accuse him of
grandstanding and serving Belgrade's interests, and polls give
him the highest negative ratings of the four candidates. (Note:
He comes across as pragmatic and opportunistic in meetings,
where he takes pains to convey that he values his relationship
with the USG despite frequent critical public positions.)
Mandic is hoping Kosovo will energize his campaign; he organized
an anti-Kosovo independence rally which brought as many as
10,000 peaceful protestors to Podgorica. (Note: Mandic assured
us he would not target our Embassy, and kept his word.)



Srdjan Milic, Socialist People's Party (SNP)

--------------




9. (SBU) Milic, 42, graduated from the Faculty of Foreign Trade
and Tourism in Dubrovnik and worked in the tourism industry for
most of the 1980s and 1990s. He joined the SNP in 1998 and was
elected to the Montenegrin Parliament in 2002. He was elected
head of his party in November 2006 in a general shake-up
intended to stem the party's slide in the polls (Note: The SNP
declined in support from 20.4 percent in 2002 to 8.2 percent in
2006).




10. (SBU) Milic has tried to reinvent the heavily Serb,
anti-independence SNP into a multi-ethnic, civic party, but has
faced resistance from the SNP's conservative wing and has found
his electorate squeezed by the PzP and SNS. He was a reluctant
presidential candidate, delaying committing in the hopes that an
independent, joint opposition candidate would emerge. The
understated Milic is often overshadowed by the more voluble
Mandic and Medojevic, but benefits from a still-strong party
structure (he was the first candidate to gather the required
signatures despite being the last to declare). He hopes to
present himself as a moderate alternative to Mandic and a
stronger oppositionist than Medojevic. Interestingly, Milic
claims to be an advocate of NATO membership for Montenegro.
(Note: The latest polls suggest the SNP has gained back some of
the votes it lost to PzP in the last election, likely due to
Medojevic's support for the new Constitution).



What The Polls Say

--------------




11. (U) The most recent poll from the respected CEDEM think tank
surveyed 1,000 Montenegrins from February 15 - 20. According to
the poll (which had a margin of error of 1.5 percent),49.5
percent of likely voters would cast their ballots for Vujanovic,
21.2 percent for Medojevic, 14.8 percent for Mandic, and 9.9
percent for Milic. 4.6 percent of respondents would vote for
none of the above, and the expected turnout for the election's
first round was 71.1 percent.




12. (U) Should the election go to a second round (if no
candidate won more than 50 percent of the vote in the first
round),voter turnout would fall to 62.1 percent. Vujanovic
would beat Medojevic by a margin of 63.2 percent to 36.8
percent, and would beat Mandic 68.5 percent to 31.5 percent.
The poll did not offer a Vujanovic - Milic match-up. Should

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Medojevic face off against Mandic, however, the former would
beat the latter 67.3 percent to 32.7 percent.



Comment

--------------




13. (SBU) The main drama at this point is whether Vujanovic can
win a first round victory, and if not, whether it will be
Medojevic or Mandic (since at this point Milic is running a
clear fourth) to lead the opposition in the second round.
Septel will discuss this election's political implications for
Montenegro.
MOORE