Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08PODGORICA215
2008-08-21 08:44:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Podgorica
Cable title:  

TFGG-1: MANDIC HEATS UP ON GEORGIA, DOMINATES MONTENEGRIN

Tags:  PREL PGOV MW 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5465
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0215/01 2340844
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 210844Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0909
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0994
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000215 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MW
SUBJECT: TFGG-1: MANDIC HEATS UP ON GEORGIA, DOMINATES MONTENEGRIN
SERB POLITICAL RHETORIC

REF: A: PODGORICA 069; B: PODGORICA 201

PODGORICA 00000215 001.2 OF 003


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000215

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MW
SUBJECT: TFGG-1: MANDIC HEATS UP ON GEORGIA, DOMINATES MONTENEGRIN
SERB POLITICAL RHETORIC

REF: A: PODGORICA 069; B: PODGORICA 201

PODGORICA 00000215 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Montenegro's ethnic Serb parties continue to
be overshadowed by the inflammatory public statements of Andrija
Mandic, president of the Serbian People's Party (SNS) and the
coalition Serbian List (SL) who is using the Russia-Georgia
conflict to draw parallels with Kosovo and attack NATO and U.S.
foreign policy. Mandic's comments are not gaining traction with
the public and more moderate Serb parties are attempting to
distance themselves politically from Mandic, though they
continue to work with the SNS on specific legislative issues.
END SUMMARY.



MANDIC'S INFLAMATORY RHETORIC ON RUSSIA-GEORGIA CONFLICT

-------------- --------------




2. (SBU) Mandic has pushed the boundaries of his rhetoric by
making his most extreme declarations to date on the
Russia-Georgia conflict. Through an August 10 SNS press
statement and a subsequent interview on the conflict between
Russia and Georgia, Mandic directly attacked the United States
and its policy on Kosovo. The press statement expressed support
for Russia's military actions against Georgia over South Ossetia
and said that Russia's actions and its attitude toward this
issue are very important for stopping the United States'
unilateral policy which has culminated in an attempt to create
the "false state" of Kosovo. "Defense of vital Russian national
interests in South Ossetia explicitly shows that the existence
of a single center of power is coming to an end, the center that
has primarily worked for those who are at the top," said Mandic.
He went on to say that the "Yugoslav Army should have helped the
Serbs in Krajina [in the mid 1990s] as the Russians helped their
compatriots in South Ossetia," adding that "the Russian military
action unmasked the existence of NATO."




3. (SBU) On August 15 SNS Vice President Novak Radulovic
publicly accused the GoM of exporting weapons to Georgia which
have been used in the current conflict. Radulovic also asked
the GoM how many of the "Strelas" that allegedly were destroyed
ended up in Georgia to hit Russian planes and helicopters.
(Note: In June 2008, the GoM destroyed 1,500 of its 1,692 excess
Strela man-portable surface-to-air missiles in accordance with a
bilateral agreement with the U.S. Both the MoD and USG

Contractors collected and retained appropriate documentation of
the destruction.) Radulovic accused the GoM of "arming the
enemies of our traditional allies." In an August 16 press
release, the MoD responded that Montenegro has not exported
ammunition and arms to Russia or Georgia and noted that the
Russian Defense Ministry issued a list of states that had
exported arms to Georgia, and that Montenegro was not among them.





MANDIC'S RADICAL PUBLIC MESSAGE HEATS UP

--------------


4. (SBU) Mandic's statements on the Russia-Georgia conflict come
after a summer of progressively more inflammatory public
rhetoric. It is becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile
these statements with his traditionally more subdued and
targeted positions criticizing the Montenegrin government and
supporting the status of Serbs within Montenegro. Mandic held a
peaceful protest in Podgorica following Kosovo's declaration of
independence in February (REF A). Mandic later spoke at a rally
in Belgrade protesting Kosovo's declaration of independence but
his comments were relatively restrained.




5. (SBU) During his Presidential campaign last spring, Mandic
ran on a surprisingly positive campaign platform stressing unity
and social issues, while jettisoning his usual Serb nationalist
rhetoric. He resurfaced in the press in May when he met with
Marko Jaksic and other Serb leaders in Kosovo. There Mandic
began to ramp up his rhetoric, promising support against further
recognition of Kosovo's independence. He likewise pledged
actions against the GoM if it recognizes Kosovo such as joining
with Kosovo Serbs to block roads leading into Montenegro during
the tourist season.




PODGORICA 00000215 002.2 OF 003



6. (SBU) Mandic has continued to elevate his public rhetoric
over the summer to attack and challenge expected GoM foreign
policy decisions on NATO and Kosovo. On June 19, Mandic spoke
out against the draft law on contributions to international
peacekeeping missions. He said, "if it is adopted in this form,
the to-date-dictator regime will very soon be sending our
children, against international law, to attack and occupy
different sovereign states." In the same statement Mandic warned
that the Montenegrin Muslims will reach out to Muslims in the
Middle East. Throughout the summer, Mandic has reiterated his
promise to hold a mass protest if the government decides to
recognize Kosovo's independence. On July 22 Mandic called the
establishment of the Republika Srpska (RS),"the most important
achievement of Serbs in the last 60 years," in response to the
arrest of Radovan Karadzic (REF B). Mandic joined the Serbian
Radical Party-sponsored pro-Karadzic rally in Belgrade on July
29 where he called Serbian President Tadic a "Serb traitor."



MANDIC: TRUST ME IT'S JUST FOR MY CONSTITUENTS

-------------- -




7. (SBU) On July 25 in a meeting with Mandic and his deputy,
Goran Danilovic, Mandic assured poloff that the SNS is concerned
primarily with improving the status of Serbs within Montenegro.
He downplayed his public statements [on the RS] and explained
that the SNS and SL will always react to regional events
involving Serbs, suggesting that we should not give his public
comments much credence.





OTHER SERB PARTIES KEEP DISTANCE

--------------




8. (SBU) The only other Serb party to comment on the
Russia-Georgia issue is the small Democratic Serbian Party
(DSS),which also expressed support for Russia. The DSS, a minor
party that advocates reunification with Serbia, is trying to
stake a role among the more extreme pro-Serbian parties but it
carries far less political weight than the SNS.




9. (SBU) Poloff met with leaders from other Serb parties on July
25 and 31 (before the Russia-Georgia conflict intensified) and
found them to be less interested in Mandic's political rhetoric
and more focused on striving for reconciliation of Serbs and
other ethnic groups in Montenegro. Zoran Zizic, head of the
Democratic Party of Unity (DSJ) which is part of the SL, told us
that he disagreed with Mandic's public statement about Tadic and
claimed Mandic's statements do not reflect his true beliefs.
People's Party (NS) vice president Dragan Soc -- who runs the NS
from behind the scenes -- told us that Mandic's efforts should
be refocused on uniting the opposition. Soc declared that
individuals must set aside ethnic and cultural differences to
create an environment for reconciliation.




10. (SBU) The Serb-dominated Socialist People's Party (SNP) has
been trying to transform itself into a civic-oriented party and
distance itself from Mandic. Yet, like the other Serb parties,
it continues to collaborate with the SL on legislative matters
such as the opposition boycott of Parliament. The SNP, with the
SNS's support, is protesting the new Law on Voter Registration
(septel). SNP vice presidents Vasilije Lalosevic and Neven
Gosovic told us on July 25 that they intend to keep SNP a
moderate party and are trying to move it away from more radical
Serb parties but acknowledge the SNP's voter base is Serb. Other
Serb parties have suggested that SNP's leaders may be forced by
its Serb base to participate in more political activities with
the SL.



COMMENT

--------------




PODGORICA 00000215 003.2 OF 003



11. (SBU) As the leader of the SL, Mandic sets the tone for the
Serb community in Montenegro. He also represents the largest
Serb party in the country and other Serb leaders recognize that
the only way to affect a policy change or a change in government
is to band together on major issues, even if that means working
with Mandic.




12. (SBU) Mandic tries to manipulate political developments to
his advantage -- both to boost his political future and to help
his policy positions -- and he probably will continue his
current radical line if he assesses he is having an impact.
Public support for Montenegro's membership in NATO is only about
30 percent, and is particularly unpopular with the SNS's
traditional voter base, so Mandic probably sees this issue as a
perfect rallying point. Mandic has latched onto the
Russia-Georgia issue to support this argument against Montenegro
eventually joining NATO. His recent extremist statements,
however, do not seem to be gaining traction with the public or
with other traditionally anti-NATO Serb parties, most of whom
are trying to engage constructively in Montenegro's political
system.
SKONTOS