PRO-SERB OPPOSITION PARTIES PROMISE PROTESTS SHOULD GOM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000209

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR MW
SUBJECT: PRO-SERB OPPOSITION PARTIES PROMISE PROTESTS SHOULD GOM
RECOGNIZE KOSOVO

PODGORICA 00000209 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Rumors that the GoM will recognize Kosovo in
the near future have been building, even as virtually all
observers agree that the move will be widely unpopular here.
Montenegro's largest pro-Serb political force has promised mass
protests, and although not all pro-Serb parties have signed on,
some demonstrations are probably inevitable. While many contend
that the intensity and duration of protests will be limited, the
GoM -- concerned that recognition will embolden radicals,
sharpen ethnic and political divisions, and sour relations with
Serbia -- continues to calculate how best to minimize the
fall-out. END SUMMARY.



An Unpopular Move

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2. (U) Rumors that the Montenegrin government will recognize
Kosovo have been building over the past month, fueled in part by
FM Rocen's public assertion in early July that the GoM intends
to take this step. Although Rocen did not specify a time,
speculation has centered on August/September.




3. (SBU) Kosovo recognition will be politically risky for the
GoM. While we have not seen published opinion polling, it is
widely believed that a significant majority here opposed
Kosovo's independence and opposes recognition now. Citing
private surveys, prominent pollster Milos Besic told us recently
that a "clear majority" was against recognition. With the
exception of the Albanian parties, opposition also spans the
political spectrum, with many contending that recognition is
unpopular even with many rank-and-file members of the ruling
Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). Some opposition leaders
have cited figures suggesting that 80 percent or more of
Montenegrins oppose independence.




4. (SBU) More than 30 percent of Montenegrins identify
themselves as Serbs, while 5-7 percent are Albanians and another
10-15 percent are Bosniaks/Muslims. Many Montenegrins therefore
worry that recognition could upset the country's delicate ethnic
balance. They are also concerned that it would sour relations
with neighboring Serbia. Moreover, a significant number of
Montenegrins -- particularly Serbs - feel passionately that
Kosovo is and should remain Serbian. (Note: A February
demonstration against Kosovo independence in Podgorica drew
10,000 protestors, a large number for tiny Montenegro.)



Serb Parties Promise Protests

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5. (SBU) Pro-Serb opposition forces have vowed that they will
not let recognition pass without a fight. On July 21, Serbian
List alliance leader Andrija Mandic -- who placed second in the
April presidential election -- repeated his earlier pledge to
lead "mass protests" should the GoM recognize. Mandic told us
on July 25 that his call for demonstrations was designed to
dissuade the GoM from taking the plunge. (Note: Mandic has
told us privately that he has no doubt that the GOM will
recognize Kosovo.) Serbian List MP Zoran Zizic also told us
August 1 that recognition -- which he believed could come later
in the month -- would be "a disgrace" for Montenegro and vowed
to support "sharp protests."




6. (SBU) The Serbian List will be joined by other smaller
pro-Serb groups, such as the Democratic Serbian Party (DSS).
DSS leader Ranko Kadic told us passionately on July 25 that
recognition of "the false state" of Kosovo was a line the GoM
must never cross. Kadic worried the GoM would recognize later
this month, even though he said President Vujanovic had promised
a parliamentary debate before any decision. Kadic conceded that
it would be difficult to mobilize supporters in August, but
promised, "We will be ready to react." He also opined that
protests could turn violent, although he claimed that any
violence would be instigated by the Montenegrin secret police.



PODGORICA 00000209 002.2 OF 002



Crack in Serb Unity?

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7. (SBU) The small pro-Serb People's Party (NS) has struck a
discordant note in an otherwise unified Serb party front. While
sharply opposing recognition (which would be "disastrous and
shameful") NS party leader Predrag Popovic announced July 22
that he would not participate in protests. Deputy NS leader
Dragan Soc told us July 28 that while recognition would
destabilize Montenegro and harm relations with Serbia, "the time
for demonstrations has passed." As many as 30,000 people could
take to the streets, he said, and the situation could spiral out
of control. It therefore was better to respond politically, he
said. (Note: When asked to comment on the NS's stance, Mandic
told us, "don't worry, they will join; they have no choice.")



Moderate Opposition Weighs Options

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8. (SBU) Socialist People's Party (SNP) deputy leaders Vasilije
Lalosevic and Nevan Gosovic told us July 27 that their party --
which believes recognition will jeopardize domestic stability
and relations with Serbia -- sent "a clear warning" to the GoM
after Rocen's July statement and felt that the GoM had pulled
back as a result. Furthermore, Gosovic said former PM
Sturanovic had assured SNP leader Srdjan Milic that the issue
would be debated in Parliament before any decision was made.
While Lalosevic predicted that citizens would take to the
streets spontaneously if the GoM recognized, both he and Gosovic
refused to comment on whether the SNP would participate. (Note:
the SNP joined the February demonstration).




9. (SBU) The moderate Movement for Change (PzP) is courting both
Albanian and Serbian voters and consequently has kept a low
profile on the issue. Party leader Nebojsa Medojevic has said
publicly that the GoM should not rush to recognize, and deputy
PzP leader Goran Batricevic told us in late July that
recognition would squeeze the moderate opposition between
radicals and the GoM, "taking us back to the pre-(Montenegrin)
independence period." However, Batricevic told us August 5 that
he now thought that Montenegro should recognize as soon as
possible, "so we can put the issue behind us." PzP MP and
spokesman Koca Pavlovic also assured us that, while he believed
recognition was "not a smart idea," the PzP would respect the
GoM's decision and would not participate in demonstrations.



Comment

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10. (SBU) Kosovo recognition is widely unpopular, and not only
among the 30-plus percent of the population who identify
themselves as Serbs. Public protests are virtually inevitable
should the GoM recognize, and parties with heavy Serb voter
bases -- such as the SNP and the NS -- will be hard-pressed to
resist joining. We note that the NS's decision not to
participate in demonstrations has caused considerable angst
within the party, with calls for leader Popovic's resignation.




11. (SBU) But while the situation is unpredictable, most
observers expect protests to be limited in size and duration.
"The time for big reactions has passed," one senior coalition MP
told us, while another DPS politician said the recent government
change in Serbia had dampened the opposition's energy. The fact
that Serb parties have acted within the constitutional and legal
order, despite often inflammatory rhetoric, also should help
keep a lid on passions. Nevertheless, virtually all
Montenegrins, both for and against the move, worry that
recognition will embolden radicals and sharpen ethnic and
political divisions. As a result, the GoM -- which has assured
us that recognition is a matter of when, not if -- continues to
calculate the timing in order to minimize the political fall-out
(septel).
MOORE