Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08PODGORICA119
2008-04-07 11:15:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Podgorica
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS SHOW

Tags:  PGOV MW 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0119/01 0981115
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 071115Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0741
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0819
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000119 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS SHOW
VUJANOVIC WINNING SECOND TERM

REF: PODGORICA 116 AND PREVIOUS

PODGORICA 00000119 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000119

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS SHOW
VUJANOVIC WINNING SECOND TERM

REF: PODGORICA 116 AND PREVIOUS

PODGORICA 00000119 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Unofficial results have incumbent President
Vujanovic of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS)
winning more than 50 percent of the vote April 6 in Montenegro's
first post-independence presidential election. Serbian People's
Party (SNS) candidate Andrija Mandic came in a distant second,
with around 20 percent of the vote. While the State Election
Commission will not announce official results until later today
or tomorrow, Vujanovic has declared victory and two of his three
opponents have conceded (the third, Mandic, is not disputing the
results). No major irregularities were reported on election
day. Turnout was high (about 68%),and candidates ran generally
positive and substantive campaigns. Because Vujanovic appears
to have taken over 50% of the vote in the first round, no second
round will be needed if these results hold. END SUMMARY.



It's Unofficial...Vujanovic Wins Landslide Victory

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2. (U) The NGO Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) parallel
vote tabulation -- with 100 percent of 200 (out of 1,141 in
Montenegro) participating polling stations reporting -- shows
Vujanovic with 51.4 percent and Mandic with 20.4 percent.
Nebojsa Medojevic of the centrist Movement for Change (PzP) came
in third with 15.7 percent, and Srdjan Milic of the left-center
Socialist People's Party (SNP) received 12.6 percent. CDT
conducted its parallel vote tabulation and fielded approximately
500 election monitors with an NED grant.




3. (U) The NGO Center for Monitoring (CEMI) also conducted a
parallel vote tabulation based on results from 240 polling
stations. With 97.9 percent of participating stations
reporting, Vujanovic has 52.2 percent of the vote, Mandic 19.3
percent, Medojevic 17.4 percent, and Milic 11.2 percent.




4. (U) Both CDT and CEMI began releasing results after polls
closed at 21:00 local time. Shortly after 22:30, President
Vujanovic and fellow DPS member and Prime Minister Djukanovic
declared victory to a crowd of supporters outside the Government
Building in Podgorica. (Vujanovic, who called his win a "joint
victory," said he would "be President for all citizens of
Montenegro; we'll work together on Montenegro's European road,

so that Montenegro belongs to the European Union.") DPS
faithful set off fireworks around the city, and downtown
Podgorica quickly became hazardous as zigzagging drivers honked
horns and passengers shouted and waved Montenegrin flags.




5. (U) The State Election Commission will not release official
results until either late today or tomorrow (by law, they have
36 hours following close of polls),and CDT told us the margin
of error for Vujanovic's victory was 2.1 percent. However, the
NGO's parallel vote tabulations have proven accurate in previous
elections. The DPS also reportedly did its own vote tabulations
based on reports from polling commission members and observers
throughout the country. Medojevic and Milic have publicly
conceded defeat; Mandic said he would wait until his party
headquarters had verified the preliminary results.



High Turnout

--------------




6. (U) The parallel vote tabulations estimated turnout at about
68 percent. According to CDT, turnout was 71.1 percent in the
center of the country, 69.9 percent in the north, and 63.4 in
the south. Turnout was slightly below the 2006 parliamentary
election (when it was 71 percent),but well above the last
presidential election in 2003, when it was only 48 percent.



Few Violations Reported Election Day

--------------



PODGORICA 00000119 002.2 OF 002




7. (SBU) Observers had not expected major irregularities on
election day, and none were reported. U.S. Embassy observers
noted some minor infractions, but nothing that might have
compromised the integrity of the vote. Opposition candidates
were well represented on polling commissions, and the State
Election Commission registered more than 800 domestic and
international observers (not counting candidate observers). The
OSCE/ODIHR election observation mission will announce its
assessment of the campaign and vote later this afternoon
(septel).



Conduct of Campaign

--------------




8. (SBU) While no major problems were reported on the day of the
vote, several deficiencies marked the campaign. In particular,
we heard complaints about incomplete and confusing electoral
legislation, allegations of abuse of state resources by
Vujanovic, and a slight bias in state media for Vujanovic.
There were a number of incidents in which candidates'
advertising was defaced (particularly Mandic's). There also
were allegations of ID buying, but none have been substantiated.
In general, all candidates received significant media coverage,
and we heard fewer allegations of vote buying and pressure to
vote for a certain candidate than in previous elections.




9. (SBU) Overall, candidates ran substantive, issue-based
campaigns (reftels). Negative campaigning was less evident than
in recent elections. All candidates professed support for
Montenegro's EU orientation and for Montenegro's identity as a
civil state respecting minority rights. We know of no incidents
where a candidate overtly questioned Montenegrin statehood
(although Mandic, who ran an otherwise positive campaign,
surrounded himself with Serb symbols; Vujanovic very prominently
linked his candidacy with the achievement of Montenegrin
independence).




10. (SBU) Opposition candidates focused on issues such as wages,
pensions, and jobs, as well as on crime and corruption. A major
opposition theme was that the DPS was running the government for
its own financial benefit. NATO membership was not a major
issue (although Vujanovic publicly supported it and Mandic
publicly opposed). Mandic, and to a lesser degree Milic, sought
to capitalize on widespread opposition to Kosovo's independence.




Comment

--------------




11. (SBU) Vujanovic's eventual victory was never really in
doubt, but despite initial skepticism that he could mobilize DPS
members and sympathizers to achieve a first-round win, he did so
by capitalizing on Montenegrin independence and by highlighting
his close relations with DPS-favorite Djukanovic. Mandic, who
ran a generally positive, issue-based campaign -- although
relying on Serb symbols and ideologues and with frequent
references to his opposition to Kosovo independence -- has to be
pleased to have solidified his position as the strongest
opposition candidate in advance of 2009 parliamentary elections.





12. (SBU) We expect the OSCE/ODIHR observation mission to give
election day proceedings and Montenegro's electoral
administration solid marks. And while some deficiencies did
mark the campaign, many observers believe it represented a
modest step forward in terms of conduct and content over recent
elections.
MOORE