Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08PODGORICA116
2008-04-04 13:09:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Podgorica
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: VUJANOVIC HITCHES

Tags:  PGOV PREL MW 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041309Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0736
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0814
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000116 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: VUJANOVIC HITCHES
CAMPAIGN WAGON TO DJUKANOVIC'S STAR

REF: PODGORICA 106 AND PREVIOUS

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000116

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: VUJANOVIC HITCHES
CAMPAIGN WAGON TO DJUKANOVIC'S STAR

REF: PODGORICA 106 AND PREVIOUS

PODGORICA 00000116 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Filip Vujanovic of the ruling
Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) is the clear front-runner
in the Montenegrin presidential election, set for April 6.
Intent on a first-round victory, the low-key Vujanovic's biggest
challenge is to mobilize DPS members and sympathizers, many of
whom lobbied for party leader and current PM Djukanovic to run.
Vujanovic can count on the DPS's formidable political machine to
get out many voters, and as a recent visit to a campaign rally
attested, is seeking to link his candidacy with Montenegrin
statehood and emphasize his close relations with DPS favorite
Djukanovic. END SUMMARY.



Vujanovic Stakes Big Lead...

--------------




2. (U) Incumbent President Vujanovic enjoys a huge lead in the
polls. According to a March 14-20 survey by the CEDEM
think-tank, 52.8 percent of likely voters support his candidacy
(up from 49.5 percent in February). His closest challenger,
currently Serbian People's Party leader Andrija Mandic, has only
19.8 percent support.



...But Generating Enthusiasm Remains Main Challenge

-------------- --------------




3. (SBU) Vujanovic represents Montenegro's strongest party (in
power for 17-plus years) and has a relatively clean image, low
negative ratings, and a history of reaching out to minorities
(and Serbs). But DPS stalwarts worry that he lacks the charisma
to energize voters and mobilize the DPS base in an election in
which Montenegrin statehood is not at stake and all candidates
profess support for European integration. (Note: Some
Montenegrin nationalists also see Vujanovic, who patronizes the
Serbian Orthodox Church, as soft on issues related to
Montenegrin identity.) While few doubt his ultimate victory,
the DPS wants to avoid a second electoral round, which would
embolden the opposition and draw public attention to policy
differences, and many in the party originally lobbied for DPS
leader and current PM Milo Djukanovic to run. The very fact of
DPS dominance and Vujanovic's substantial lead may work against
him: if victory is inevitable, why should those who voted for

the DPS in the past -- perhaps to support Montenegrin
independence -- bother to go the polls now?



Seeking Support From All Montenegrins...

--------------




4. (SBU) Vujanovic's Chief of Staff Ivan Lekovic told us the
President sought to mobilize voters by meeting as many of them
as possible in visits to all 21 municipalities. While not
targeting particular voter groups or swing regions, Vujanovic is
adjusting his message to address local concerns. In poorer
northern municipalities, Vujanovic has focused on economic and
infrastructure development (and specific local issues like
promising municipal status to the township of Gusinje) and
downplayed the DPS's role in securing independence, while on the
more prosperous Montenegrin coast he talked about managing
development. Continued European integration and the importance
of stability have been common themes in all municipalities,
Lekovic said.



...But Counting On The DPS Machine

--------------




5. (SBU) Vujanovic has the advantage of incumbency -- he has
been busy opening schools and handing out awards -- and enjoys
more coverage on state media than his rivals. The DPS hopes
Djukanovic's accession to PM will energize supporters, as will
good feelings from the independence referendum. Finally and
perhaps most importantly, the DPS's deep coffers are paying for

PODGORICA 00000116 002.2 OF 003


ubiquitous TV spots and billboards, and the party is counting on
its formidable patronage machine to get out the vote (we heard
the DPS deployed 4,500 activists in Podgorica, each charged with
talking to at least 30 voters per day).



Love-Fest in Niksic...For Milo

--------------




6. (SBU) Energy and enthusiasm were very much in evidence at a
Vujanovic rally we attended in Niksic on March 29. A diverse
crowd of over a thousand packed the hall, with many standing in
the aisles. The families of Vujanovic, Djukanovic, and former PM
Sturanovic are from Niksic; all three politicians attended the
event (along with Parliament Speaker Ranko Krivokapic of the
allied Social Democrats),which felt like a homecoming.




7. (SBU) The focus of the audience's attention and adoration,
however, was not Vujanovic. Rather, the party faithful swooned
over Djukanovic. The PM entered the hall (with Vujanovic) to
chants of "Milo, Milo," which were to be repeated any time a
speaker mentioned Djukanovic (and sometimes even when they did
not). The crowd did yell Vujanovic's name, but much less
frequently. When Djukanovic took the stage, the audience rose
to its feet, cell phone cameras clicking. When Vujanovic spoke,
half remained seated and a couple of people even made for the
exits. (Note: Apparently seeking to turn the spotlight back on
Vujanovic, Djukanovic stressed that he had never made a
political decision without consulting Vujanovic and that
securing a "European future" for Montenegro required a team
effort.)




8. (SBU) The crowd's enthusiasm also was for Montenegrin
statehood. Montenegrin flags festooned the gallery, Montenegrin
folk songs warmed up the audience (which frequently broke into
nationalist chants),and Montenegrin independence -- and
specifically the fact that DPS leaders had passed the
independence referendum over opposition from Vujanovic's rivals
-- was the main theme of the evening, highlighted by almost
every speaker. Djukanovic in particular devoted much of his
speech to systematically attacking the other presidential
candidates for opposing independence (he also said Vujanovic's
reelection was important for Montenegro's European integration
prospects, continued economic growth, and stability in a
transitional period).




9. (SBU) Vujanovic used his speech, which was brief but
punctuated by vigorous hand gestures, to praise Niksic for its
anti-fascist credentials and support for Montenegrin
independence. He said that during his first term as President
he had fulfilled most of his campaign promises -- Montenegro had
achieved independence (which he said his rivals opposed) and was
internationally recognized ("if my opponents had their way we
would not be in these international organizations"),and he had
supported minority rights and worked to reduce unemployment and
raise wages and pension. Montenegro was now well on its way
toward Europe, and Vujanovic hoped to see the process through
during a second term.



Comment

--------------




10. (SBU) Backed by the DPS political machine and opposed by an
internally divided opposition, Vujanovic's eventual victory does
not appear to be in serious question. But it remains to be seen
whether he can deliver a first-round knockout. A low-key
personality, his biggest challenge is to energize DPS members
and sympathizers in an election which by rights should not be
about the emotional issue of independence -- which has been
settled -- or about Montenegro's orientation -- which all
candidates agree is toward Europe. As the Niksic rally attests,
Vujanovic is doing his best to both re-inject independence and
Montenegrin nationalism (even though he is not seen as its
strongest proponent by some) into the campaign in areas where it
is favored and to link himself to the wildly popular (with DPS
supporters) Djukanovic. While stressing European integration,

PODGORICA 00000116 003.2 OF 003


economic improvements, stability, and local issues, his main
message seems to be, "we brought you statehood, and I'll work
with Milo to strengthen Montenegro," or simply, "I'm with Milo."
MOORE