MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: MANDIC STRESSES UNITY

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SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: MANDIC STRESSES UNITY
WHILE MOBILIZING SERB BASE

REF: PODGORICA 105 AND PREVIOUS

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Andrija Mandic of the Serbian People's Party
(SNS) has inched into second place in the polls -- albeit far
behind incumbent President Vujanovic (who is knocking on the
door of a first-round victory) -- in the run-up to the April 6
presidential election. Defying his reputation as a
rabble-rousing, anti-independence Serb nationalist, Mandic is
running a positive, issue-based campaign. However, he continues
to surround himself with Serb symbols and Serb ideologues, and
has capitalized on the Kosovo issue to mobilize his electoral
base. END SUMMARY.



Mandic Gains Ground

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2. (U) According to the latest survey (conducted March 14-20 by
the CEDEM thinktank),Mandic has moved past Nebojsa Medojevic of
the Movement for Change (PzP) into second place in the polls --
with 19.1 percent support compared to the PzP candidate's 18.3
percent -- albeit still far behind incumbent President
Vujanovic, who is supported by 52.8 percent of voters. Mandic
received 14.8 percent support in CEDEM's February poll, while
Medojevic had 21.2 percent. (A fourth candidate, Srdjan Milic
of the Socialist People's Party (SNP),polled 9.8 percent in
March and 9.9 percent in February).



Uniting, Not Dividing?

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3. (SBU) Defying his reputation as a one-trick politician
pandering to and supported by disgruntled, anti-independence
Serbs, Mandic has run a surprisingly positive, issue-based
campaign. In slick TV advertisements, he touts his support for
family values, security for pensioners, top quality education,
health care improvements, higher wages, and the fight against
crime and corruption. In the advertisements, there is nary a
mention of the Serb identity issues that have been his political
bread-and-butter.




4. (SBU) Mandic, who called for civil disobedience following the
passage of the Constitution in October 2007, now says his
"optimistic" candidacy -- he is running "for all of us" --
provides Montenegro with "a chance for unification." In public
speeches he has also touting his "European values." SNS deputy
leader Goran Danilovic told us recently that Mandic was
supporting greater economic opportunities for youths,
pensioners, and public sector employees, as well as equal rights
for all minorities. When we suggested that Mandic was promoting
Serbs' rights, we were lectured on how Mandic was not singling
out Serbs, and how his platform also benefited Bosniaks and
Albanians.




5. (SBU) At a March 25 campaign rally we witnessed, Mandic stuck
exclusively to economic and social issues. Addressing a small
but enthusiastic working-class crowd in a Podgorica suburb, he
promised to fix Montenegro's pension system and eliminate drugs
in schools, touted the benefits of computers for students,
foreign language training, and "European education," and blasted
the government for failing to clean up crime and corruption,
which he said had slowed foreign investment. He also mentioned
he recently had lobbied the Russian Duma to extend the proposed
South Stream gas pipeline through Montenegro. (Note: One of
the opening speakers at the rally introduced Mandic as a
candidate who "can have breakfast in Washington," -- a reference
to Mandic's presence at the recent Prayer Breakfast -- "lunch in
Belgrade, and dinner in Moscow".)



Still The Serb Candidate

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6. (SBU) But while Mandic may not be highlighting identity
issues in his national TV ads (or in the Podgorica appearance we

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witnessed),he repeatedly has promised to amend the Constitution
to promote the Serbian language, Serbian Orthodox Church, and
Serbian flag. He also does not need to stress Serb issues in
his speeches, because others do that for him. After Mandic
entered the hall in Podgorica, all rose for the Serbian national
anthem as supporters waved the Serbian flag and flashed the Serb
three-fingered salute. A speaker from the Serb Radical Party (a
member of Mandic's Serbian List coalition) told the crowd that
Mandic was the only candidate "who can reunite our brothers in
Montenegro and Serbia," and the speaker who lauded Mandic's
contacts in Washington, Belgrade, and Moscow also said Mandic
could travel to Dubrovnik, but that "he would never kneel and
apologize" for Montenegrin shelling of that city at the start of
the Yugoslav civil wars.



Kosovo Helps Mobilize Base

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7. (SBU) Also, more than any other candidate, Mandic has linked
himself to opposition to Kosovo's independence. Mandic
organized the large anti-independence rally in Podgorica on
February 22, and traveled to Kosovska Mitrovica on February 17
and again on March 17 (a recent, full-page campaign ad in
Vijesti featured a letter from a student association in that
city supporting his candidacy). In fact, he has promised to
withhold recognition even if Serbia recognizes Kosovo.




8. (SBU) Mandic also has linked Kosovo to opposition to NATO.
For example, on March 9 he told journalists that, while he would
honor the results of a referendum on membership, "in my opinion,
Montenegro does not belong in NATO," and the NATO bombing in
1999 "was not aimed at protecting human rights in Kosovo but at
depriving Serbia of part of its territory." (Note: Mandic
further stated that, "I do not want my son Ilija to go to
Afghanistan, Somalia, or Iraq to make war and hurt innocent
people just like our people suffered less than ten years ago.")



Comment

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9. (SBU) Mandic vociferously opposed Montenegrin independence
and just a few months ago called on Serbs to show civil
disobedience to protest the passage of Montenegro's new
constitution. Despite the interesting electoral rhetoric, it
would be premature to surmise that Mandic is trying to remake
his Serb-based political force into a civic party (as Milic is
attempting to do with the SNP) or that the up-tick in support
for his candidacy over the last month comes from non-Serb
voters. His supporters (and indeed all citizens of this small
country) know well what he stands for, and it is likely that the
Kosovo issue has helped him mobilize his base electorate.
Mandic himself has told us that his goal is to emerge from these
elections as the uncontested leader of the opposition.
MOORE