Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08PODGORICA105
2008-03-31 16:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Podgorica
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: THE CONDUCT OF THE

Tags:  PGOV PREL MW 
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DE RUEHPOD #0105/01 0911626
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 311626Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0719
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0797
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: THE CONDUCT OF THE
CAMPAIGN TO DATE

REF: PODGORICA 93 AND PREVIOUS

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000105

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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: THE CONDUCT OF THE
CAMPAIGN TO DATE

REF: PODGORICA 93 AND PREVIOUS

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Montenegro will hold presidential elections
April 6. Despite initial lack of clarity on electoral
legislation, observers believe the voter registry is solid and
that political party oversight, procedural safeguards, and
domestic and international observers will adequately ensure the
integrity of the vote. The opposition has accused the ruling
party of abusing state resources and purchasing IDs to prevent
citizens from voting and has complained of media bias and
inadequate campaign financing. OSCE/ODIHR mission has reported
a "slight" bias in state media toward the incumbent, but has
been unable to substantiate the allegations of ID buying.
Overall, the candidates have focused on substantive issues and
the campaign has witnessed fewer accusations of violations than
in recent elections. END SUMMARY.




2. (U) Montenegro will hold presidential elections April 6, with
a runoff on April 20 if no candidate gets more than 50 percent
in the first round. According to a March 14-20 poll conducted
by the CEDEM think tank, incumbent President Vujanovic of the
Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) is supported by 52.8
percent of voters (an increase of more than four percent from
CEDEM's February poll). Andrija Mandic of the Serbian People's
Party (SNS) has moved into second place, with 19.1 percent (up
from 14.8 percent in February),just ahead of Nebojsa Medojevic
of the Movement for Change (PzP),who has 18.3 percent support
(21.2 percent in February). Srdjan Milic of the Socialist
People's Party (SNP) trails with 9.8 percent (9.9 percent in the
February poll).



Lack of Legislation Causes Initial Confusion...

-------------- --


3. (U) The campaign got off to an uncertain start in January
when Parliament failed to pass legislation defining voter
eligibility and campaign financing. Parliament's failure until
March 19 to elect a quorum to the Public Broadcasting Service
Council also prevented that body from adopting regulations
governing state media's coverage of the campaign. In the absence
of these laws and regulations, the campaign has been conducted
under existing legislation, some of which has been criticized as

ambiguous (but which the ODIHR mission has assessed as
sufficient according to international standards).



...But Few Worries About Voter List, Election Day Vote

-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Despite some unhappiness over the election's
legislative framework, most observers have expressed few
concerns about the quality of Montenegro's voter registry and
the competence and objectivity of its electoral administration.
ODIHR told us the registry, which consists of 489,894
individuals, was solid. (Note: All individuals listed as of
September 2006 -- the last parliamentary election -- may vote).
In addition, according to ODIHR, election commissions were
transparent and had met all deadlines. Opposition candidates
were expected to place representatives on the 21 municipal
commissions and the boards of 1,141 polling stations; ODIHR
believes political party controls and other procedural
safeguards will ensure the basic integrity of the vote.




5. (U) ODIHR will field 120 short-term and 14 long-term monitors
(in country since early March). Embassies are contributing
another 14 observers to ODIHR; together with a handful of
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe representatives
and other OSCE staff, about 175 foreign monitors will deploy
throughout Montenegro. They will be joined by approximately 500
observers from the NGO the Center for Democratic Transition
(CDT),which will conduct a Parallel Vote Tabulation from about
200 polling stations (Note: CDT's election activities are funded
by NED). Another NGO, the Center for Monitoring (CEMI),may
also field observers.



Concerns About the Campaign

--------------


6. (SBU) While few expect fraud on election day, political
parties have raised the following concerns:

PODGORICA 00000105 002.2 OF 003





-- Abuse of state resources: The opposition has charged that
President Vujanovic is using his office to further his campaign.
SNP MP Aleksandar Damjanovic told us Vujanovic had stepped up
presidential activities since the start of the campaign, and SNS
Deputy Leader Goran Danilovic complained that the President was
using state transport (such as a helicoptor) to travel to
campaign rallies.



-- Bias in state media: The opposition charges that RTCG has
devoted more time to Vujanovic. They also complain about the
lack of TV debates (RTCG will hold its only debate on April 3,
and Damjanovic told us a private TV station cancelled a planned
debate between deputies of the candidates after the DPS backed
out). Medojevic told the Ambassador that some media were
unfairly raising rates -- a TV station in Bijelo Polje increased
its advertising fees 20-fold since the campaign started.



-- Inadequate financing: Parliament allocated 400,000 euros to
be divided equally among candidates receiving at least five
percent of the vote (the opposition lobbied in vain for the 2.7
million euros available for parliamentary elections).
Opposition representatives complain that the 100,000 euros each
candidate will get is not enough. Danilovic charged that
Vujanovic had spent well in excess of 250,000 euros on TV ads,
while his candidate (Mandic) had to take bank loans. On March
30, RTCG announced it would no longer run Medojevic's ads since
the PzP already owed the station 200,000 euros.



-- Illegal Purchase of IDs: PzP and SNS have alleged that
individuals associated with the DPS are purchasing or "renting"
voters' identity documents in order to prevent them from voting,
and possibly in order to photo sub the documents. Danilovic
claimed that 10,000 IDs had been purchased, and offered to
provide us with the names of some individuals involved.
Medojevic told the Ambassador that Safet Kalic, a suspected
mafia kingpin from Rozaje, had given the DPS five million Euros
to support the Vujanovic campaign (including, presumably, to
purchase IDs). On March 26, the PzP submitted to the Chief
State Prosecutor the names of three individuals who they claimed
were buying IDs.



ODIHR, NGOs Downplay ID Purchase

--------------


7. (SBU) An ODIHR representative and CDT director Marko Canovic
told us they were looking closely at the "difficult" question of
whether Vujanovic was using state resources to further his
campaign. However, both said they had yet to see convincing
evidence of ID buying. For one thing, Canovic told us, voters
can still cast their ballots after presenting a passport or
driver's license. The ODIHR representative said the SNS claimed
to have a list of seven individuals with knowledge of ID buying,
but declined to share their names. (Note: SNS representatives
have told us they lack confidence in ODIHR, which they claim
ignored fraud during the May 2006 independence referendum.)



"Slight" Media Bias for Incumbent

--------------


8. (SBU) ODIHR media monitors reported March 24 that RTCG
"slightly favors" Vujanovic, who received 33.8 percent of
coverage of candidates, with Milic (23.8),Medojevic (22.2),and
Mandic (20.1) trailing. (Note: these figures refer only to
campaign coverage; they do not include coverage of Vujanovic's
presidential activities.) Private broadcaster IN TV, which
competes with RTCG for ratings, was more biased, devoting 47.2
percent of its coverage to Vujanovic, with Medojevic, Mandic,
and Milic getting 22.4, 19.3, and 11.1 percent, respectively.
ODIHR noted, however, that all candidates had received
significant coverage overall and had freely purchased airtime,
and several newspapers (such as Dan and Vijesti) were supporting
opposition candidates.



Campaign Rhetoric Relatively Positive

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--------------


9. (SBU) ODIHR, CDT, and veteran observers report that the
campaign has been orderly and relatively civil. In contrast to
previous elections, which were dominated by the single question
of independence, candidates are mostly running issue-based
campaigns focusing on pensions, wages, education, health care,
corruption, and (to some extent) minority rights. A partial
exception has been Vujanovic, who -- while vowing to continue
the economic improvements of the past few years -- has made his
party's support for Montenegrin statehood, and the other
candidates' opposition to independence, a centerpiece of his
campaign. All candidates profess support for European
integration -- several, especially Medojevic, argue that by
cleaning up corruption they can integrate Montenegro into Europe
faster than Vujanovic -- while Mandic (and to a lesser degree
Milic) has been seeking to capitalize on widespread opposition
to Kosovo's independence.



Comment

--------------


10. (SBU) Despite legislative deficiencies and some apparent
violations, this campaign has contained a number of positive
developments. First of all, it has been vigorous, with all
candidates reaching out to large public audiences virtually
every day. In addition, the voter registry seems to be no
longer a major concern, there is widespread confidence in the
country's electoral administration, and election day fraud is
considered unlikely. Furthermore, there have been fewer claims
of pressure on public sector employees and voters in general (to
support the DPS candidate) than in years past, and candidates
are focusing more on issues than complaints about violations.
Allegations of ID buying are very serious, but have so far been
unsubstantiated. On the negative side of the ledger, media
coverage appears to have been somewhat skewed and the lack of
public debates between candidates is a concern. CDT has
reported on the defacing of a number of billboards, most
belonging to Mandic. The DPS-controlled Parliament's decision
to allocate only 400,000 euros to candidates clearly benefits
Vujanovic.
MOORE