FATA: KHYBER OPERATION TRANSITIONS TO NEGOTIATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000394


E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/9/2018
TAGS: PTER MOPS PGOV PINR PK
SUBJECT: FATA: KHYBER OPERATION TRANSITIONS TO NEGOTIATIONS

REF: A) PESHAWAR 379, B) PESHAWAR 348

CLASSIFIED BY: Michael A. Via, Acting Principal Officer,
Consulate Peshawar, State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)


Summary
--------------


1. (C) A military operation in the Bara area of the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas' (FATA) Khyber agency has given way to
negotiations with tribesmen. Khyber's Political Agent (PA) has
prepared a list of demands that he intends to deliver to
militant leaders with whom he believes he is negotiating from a
position of strength. The PA is already thinking of enforcement
mechanisms which include levying heavy fines and having Frontier
Corps forces stationed nearby and ready to respond.


2. (C) Khyber's PA believes that the "successful" operation has
bought him six to twelve months of breathing space that he
intends to use to "consolidate" the GOP's presence in Khyber.
Both the FATA Secretary for Law and Order and Khyber's PA told
post separately that Frontier Corps forces would soon move to
the Mangori area of Khyber agency (near Warsak) and the Mitchni
area on the Peshawar/Khyber/Mohmand border. While both
officials were relatively upbeat in their appraisal of the Bara
operation, it is still too soon to tell whether upcoming
operations will meet with a similarly small measure of militant
resistance. End Summary.

Readout on Bara Operation
--------------


3. (C) FATA Secretary for Law and Order, Ghulam Qadir and
Khyber's Political Agent (PA),Tariq Hayat Khan told post in
separate meetings on July 7 that military operations in Khyber's
Bara area have given way to negotiations with tribal leaders.
Qadir said that Mangal Bagh was not apprehended in the
operations and is playing a leading role in negotiations with
the GOP. According to both Qadir and Tariq, the operation has
had very few casualties due to the mission's limited objectives
and the fact that "miscreants" did not resist as troops captured
and demolished militant hideouts. Four Frontier Corps troops
were killed and three others were injured, however, in a
militant ambush on July 8 which Khyber's PA attributed to
"carelessness" by the Frontier Corpsmen. One alleged militant
was also killed during the first day of the operations when he
failed to stop at a security checkpoint.


4. (C) Khyber's PA expressed his opinion that "successful"
military operations in Khyber's Bara area have helped to
reestablish the writ of the government. According to the PA,
warlord Mangal Bagh's followers are defecting from his
Lashkar-i-Islam organization and government offices are
reopening in the area. Lashkar-i-Islam continues to battle with
a rival group, Ansar-ul Islam in the Tirah Valley. Tariq
claimed to have played a role in instigating the current round
of clashes which have left more than a dozen Ansar and
Lashkar-i-Islam fighters dead.


5. (C) The PA conceded, however, that he was not given a
sufficient amount of troops to carry out a "proper operation"
against Mangal Bagh; only two wings of Frontier Corps troops
(approximately 1,000 troops) were assigned to the Bara
Operation. (Note: Tariq has previously expressed frustration
over his inability to procure the necessary troops to tackle
Mangal Bagh early in his tenure as Khyber's PA, ref. B. End
note.) Ghulam Qadir, however, reasoned that the two wings were
"sufficient." The "strike force" portion of the two Frontier
Corps wings that were deployed to Bara will likely depart the
agency in three to four days, but the "static" deployment will
remain in the area to ensure law and order.

Another Peace Deal in the Making?
--------------


6. (C) Khyber's PA said that a group of 18 tribal elders
representing a Bara peace jirga had approached his office and
offered to broker a deal between the GOP and "miscreants" in
Khyber agency. The PA prepared an "undertaking" (a list of GOP
demands) that would be conveyed via the peace jirga to Afridi
tribal elders in Bara. According to the PA, the undertaking
contains the following provisions:

-- Tribes will prohibit parallel government activities.
-- Tribes will prohibit cross-border attacks.
-- Tribes will prohibit militant training camps.
-- Tribes will prevent militants from carrying out activities in
neighboring tribal agencies. (Note: Mangal Bagh's group has
ventured into the neighboring Orakzai agency and clashed with
Ansar-ul Islam activists there. End note.)
-- Tribes will prohibit attacks on GOP security forces.
-- Tribes will not provide sanctuary to foreign fighters.
-- Tribesmen will not carry personal firearms on government
property.
-- Tribesmen will not carry heavy weapons anywhere in Khyber
agency.
-- Tribes will provide protection to both GOP and foreigners who
are carrying out development work in Khyber.


7. (C) Tariq expected that several of the above provisions would
be "softened" during subsequent rounds of negotiations, but
insisted that he is bargaining from a "position of strength."
According to both the Secretary for Law and Order and Khyber's
PA, 26 of the 92 "miscreants" captured since the commencement of
operations in Bara on June 28 are "hardcore" militants. These
26 prisoners will not be released in exchange for implementing
the GOP's conditions. Khyber's PA was also quick to
differentiate this undertaking from the ones in South Waziristan
where the political administration is facing "jihadis."

Enforcement
--------------


8. (C) Should tribesmen accept the PA's conditions, an Assistant
Political Agent would oversee a committee designed to ensure
compliance with its provisions. Khyber's PA said that a penalty
of 50 million Rupees (approximately USD 735,000) would be levied
on tribes found to be in violation of the agreement. Further,
the PA is authorized to suspend payments and Khassadar
appointments to the offending tribe. Finally, the PA said that
Frontier Corps troops would be "standing by" to enforce the
undertaking if necessary.

Breathing Space
--------------


9. (C) Khyber's PA reasoned that the operation in Bara and a
subsequent understanding between the GOP and the tribes would
create six to twelve months of "breathing space" for the GOP to
"consolidate" its position. He emphasized the importance of
speeding up the justice system in Khyber to deny militants an
avenue for garnering public support. Tariq said that he was
attempting to bring in additional magistrates to help clear an
"intimidating" backlog of court cases. Finally, he requested
that the United States provide communication, mobility and
ammunition supplies to Khassadar forces in Khyber to empower
them to confront militants who now regularly outgun and
outmaneuver them.

Future Operations
--------------


10. (C) Both Ghulam Qadir and Tariq Hayat Khan separately said
that Frontier Corps troops would next move to the Mangori area
of Khyber agency (located near Warsak) and Mitchni (a suburb on
the Khyber/Mohmand/Peshawar Border). Qaqir stated that the
Mitchni operations would prevent Mohmand-based militants from
"coming toward Peshawar." According to Qadir, these two
operations would pave the way for a future operation in Mohmand
agency. Khyber's PA stated that he would like to conduct a
"clean up operation" in Landi Kotal in order to create a
"sterile corridor" around the Tirah Valley until he could
requisition enough troops to carry out an operation there.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) The operation in Khyber's Bara area appears to be the
opening salvo of a wider GOP plan to secure Peshawar's troubled
flanks. While both Qadir and Tariq were relatively upbeat in
their appraisal of the Bara operation, it is still too soon to
tell whether upcoming operations will meet with a similarly
small measure of militant resistance.


VIA