Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08PESHAWAR379
2008-06-30 12:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Peshawar
Cable title:  

FATA: OFFICIALS CONTEMPLATE EXPANDING KHYBER OPERATION

Tags:  PTER MOPS PGOV PINR PK 
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O 301225Z JUN 08
FM AMCONSUL PESHAWAR
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7514
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C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000379 


E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/30/2018
TAGS: PTER MOPS PGOV PINR PK
SUBJECT: FATA: OFFICIALS CONTEMPLATE EXPANDING KHYBER OPERATION

REF: PESHAWAR 376

CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne M. Tracy, Principal Officer, Peshawar, DOS.

REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000379


E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/30/2018
TAGS: PTER MOPS PGOV PINR PK
SUBJECT: FATA: OFFICIALS CONTEMPLATE EXPANDING KHYBER OPERATION

REF: PESHAWAR 376

CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne M. Tracy, Principal Officer, Peshawar, DOS.

REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Frontier Corps operations in the Federally Administered
Tribal Areas' (FATA) Khyber agency continued over the weekend,
primarily destroying compounds and infrastructure associated
with Laskhar-i Islam warlord Mangal Bagh. One suspected Bagh
supporter has been killed, and there are no reports of soldier
casualties. Mangal Bagh is reportedly in the nearby Tirah
Valley. The Frontier Corps is contemplating extending
operations into the Tirah Valley as well as conducting a "sweep"
operation on the Peshawar-Torkham road. There are concerns that
expanding the scope of the current Bara-based operation may lead
to retaliatory attacks by militant and criminal groups.
Violence is re-emerging in Swat. Baitullah Mehsud announced on
June 28 that peace talks had been "suspended."


2. (C) Peshawar remains calm. We assess a conventional frontal
assault on Peshawar by militants and/or criminals to be highly
unlikely. Their tactics are more insidious, employing
threatening night letters, bombing CD shops, and other means of
creating an atmosphere of fear. Mangal Bagh and other criminal
groups had grown bolder in recent months, particularly when the
government failed to muster a strong response in the spring to
the violence emanating from Bara. Militant connections of Bagh
may have also been encouraged to step up intimidation around
Peshawar in the face of the government's weak response. The
greater security danger now is fallout from this operation is an
increase in targeted violence, directed at Pakistani government
institutions. We are maintaining a robust security posture and
proceeding prudently in our movements around the city. Post is
continuing to monitoring the situation. End Summary.

Khyber Operations Miss Mangal Bagh
--------------


3. (C) FATA Secretary for Law and Order Ghulam Qadir told post
on June 30 that there has only been one militant casualty in the
Khyber operation because Mangal Bagh and most of his "first and
second tier" supporters were engaged in clashes in Khyber's
Tirah Valley with a rival organization, Ansar-ul Islam.

According to Qadir, Bagh's men who were left in Bara were
instructed by the warlord "not to resist" the Frontier Corps
operations. (Note: Clashes broke out between Bagh's
Lashkar-i-Islam (LI) organization and Ansar-ul Islam on June 21
in the Tirah Valley after LI militants attacked an Ansar-ul
Islam stronghold. Approximately 40 people have reportedly been
killed in the skirmishes. NWFP Governor Ghani earlier told post
that he was "instigating" conflict between rival groups in
Khyber agency. End note.)


4. (C) Qadir confirmed that Frontier Corps forces had demolished
Mangal Bagh's "headquarters," a ten-room complex with an
adjacent prison and downplayed that capturing Mangal Bagh was
the primary objective. Destroying the buildings would limit
Lashkar-i-Islam's capacity to "regroup" and retaliate against
Peshawar. (Note: Post has heard no reports of anyone taken
into custody from Bagh's group. End Note.) Qadir stated that a
curfew had been placed only on Bara's main bazaar because it
housed several ammunition shops. Security forces captured a
small radio station used by Mangal Bagh to communicate with
locals captured. Frontier Corps forces also apprehended four
kidnappers who were taken into custody with pre-printed ransom
notes.


5. (C) Contacts at 11 Corps informed post's Liaison Officer on
June 30 that operations in Khyber "are going very well." The
11th Corps officer said that operations were "half-way done" and
expected them to continue for approximately two more days. He
said that the security situation in Peshawar has not noticeably
changed and appraised that things were calm.

Expanded Operations Considered
--------------


6. (C) While Mangal Bagh's criminal organization is Frontier
Corps' primary target, Qadir was doubtful whether the FC would
pursue Bagh into Tirah Valley. Qadir said that retaliatory
attacks by Bagh or militants in Peshawar or elsewhere in the
Northwest Frontier Province would be proportional to the extent
that military operations were expanded outside of the Bara area.
He implied that at least a tacit understanding had been reached
with Lashkar-i-Islam by noting that Mangal Bagh had agreed not
to resist the operation in Bara.


7. (C) According to Qadir, the Frontier Corps will likely
conduct an operation to "sweep and clear" the main highway that
runs from Peshawar to the Pakistan/Afghanistan border at
Torkham. He attributed this action to a series of recent
attacks on and threats to transportation companies carrying
supplies to coalition forces in Afghanistan. Finally, Qadir
said that an operation against Ansar-ul Islam was also being
contemplated and said that doing so would be a sign that the
Frontier Corps intended to "really clean up" Khyber agency.

Drug Lord Targeted
--------------


8. (C) Qadir stated that a June 30 explosion in the Bar
Qambarkhel area, located two kilometers south of Bara, was not a
missile strike as it is being portrayed in the press but was an
"internal detonation." The explosion, which killed at least
five people, was likely targeted at local drug lord Munsif Khan
who had been the target of at least one prior assassination
attempt. According to Qadir, Munsif Khan has loose connections
to Baitullah Mehsud and other anti-coalition forces in Pakistan.

Militants "Suspend" Peace Talks
--------------


9. (SBU) Following the commencement of military operations in
Khyber, Baitullah Mehsud announced on June 28 that
"Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan is suspending peace talks with the
government. This will apply not just to South Waziristan, but
all areas, including Swat." While Mehsud did not threaten to
resume violence against GOP targets, he said that "if the
operations continue, people will see Sindh and Punjab turned
into a furnace." Mehsud's top commanders in Bajaur, Mohmand,
Darra Adamkhel and Swat endorsed his comments on June 29 and
warned that Tehrik-i-Taliban would announce an action plan in a
few days if operations were not called off.


10. (SBU) Violence has reemerged both in Swat and Frontier
Region Tank's Jandola area. On June 29, six people, including
two security personnel, were killed and several others were
injured in Swat's Matta area when militants attacked a security
patrol with a remote controlled bomb. Militants have burned
down approximately 11 girls' schools and a ski resort, and
attacked security checkpoints at least three times since June

21. Militants loyal to Baitullah Mehsud attacked the city of
Jandola on June 23 and later executed approximately 23 kidnapped
tribal elders who belonged to a "peace committee" before
security forces entered to reestablish order in the city.
(Note: The executed elders belonged to the small Bhittani tribe
which has historically been associated with the government to
help protect its interests against the larger Mehsud and Wazir
tribes. End Note.)

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Peshawar remains calm with reports of heavy contingents
of paramilitary forces deployed on the outskirts of Peshawar's
Hayatabad suburb and surrounding areas. While businesses and
government offices are open and functioning normally, local
residents are bracing for some measure of retaliatory action by
militants.

TRACY