FRENCH GAERC RESPONSE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 PARIS 000811

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2018
TAGS: PREL EUN PGOV ZL PK ZI IR IZ IS CH BM GG
UZ, FR
SUBJECT: FRENCH GAERC RESPONSE

REF: STATE 43742

Classified By: A/POL William Jordan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (S/NF) Summary. On April 21, MFA Political Director
Gerard Araud presented French views on the top-priority
concerns of Iran and the Balkans, while on April 25, MFA
Office Director for CFSP Patrick Maisonnave provided the
general French reaction to the April GAERC demarche. Araud
said that EU consensus on further EU sanctions against Iran
will be difficult to obtain largely due to Austrian
obstruction, and that Iran has little incentive to change
its policies in the coming year. On the Balkans, Araud
focused on the EU's efforts to reach out to Serbia, and the
need for pragmatism in the deployment of EULEX. Maisonnave
noted generally that this GAERC will not produce
groundbreaking results, and specifically that the lack of
consensus on EU-Russia cooperation will create a missed
opportunity. Subject-matter bureaus of the MFA provided
additional input that supplements here the input from Araud
and Maisonnave. End Summary.

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NEXT STEPS ON IRAN
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2. (S/NF) In an April 21 meeting with the Ambassador, MFA
Political Director Gerard Araud stated that there are three
distinct "stages" of EU action needed in Brussels: 1)
designation of an EU list of entities and individuals
believed to be in violation of existing resolutions
(including Bank Melli); 2) implementation of UNSCR 1803 in
EU policy and regulations; and 3) adopting unilateral EU
financial and economic measures. Acccording to Araud,
Italy lifted its hold following the recent Quint meeting and
the list of entities and individuals from the previous
resolution should be approved at the GAERC barring a change
in policy following the recent Italian elections. On UNSCR
1803, France and the UK have been advocating a policy of
"tough implementation" using the text as a basis for
stronger actions. This approach is opposed by Italy, Spain
and Austria which want implementation limited to the
literal meaning of the exact words of the resolution. Araud
stated that he did not believe that the EU would
reach consensus on developing unilateral EU sanctions,
largely due to Austrian obstruction. Austria has a large
economic interest in Iran and feels excluded from the Quint
discussions where policy decisions are made; it is not
prepared to "pay for" the policies that others make.


3. (S/NF) Araud further expressed his own opinion that there
would be little forward movement by Iran this year.
He believes that the Iranian government is prepared to "wait
out" the U.S. elections and change of
administration. Since the publication of the last NIE (which
Araud termed "a major mistake"),Iran no longer
fears that a U.S. strike is imminent and many Iranian
officials believe they could get a better deal by
negotiating with a new administration. Araud, expressing a
personal view, also doubted that the Israelis, whose
actions are always impossible to predict with certainty,
would take unilateral action despite their belief Iran was
further along in developing a detonator for a nuclear device.
Furthermore, with oil at record highs of more than
$115/barrel, the economic impact of sanctions is limited.
(Comment: As others at the MFA have done, Araud also
complained that trade flows from Dubai were undermining all
efforts to exert meaningful pressure on Iran. End
comment.) Araud speculated that if the U.S., Israel and
others were prepared to share intelligence more broadly, a
formal briefing in Vienna, such as the one Heinonen gave
prior to the vote on UNSCR 1803, may help solidify European
support, but even then, he believes it "would be an uphill
battle." Araud asserted that U.S. pressure on the EU to
pass stronger sanctions will have less and less effect
largely because the Bush administration is in its final
months, and also because some EU members remain uncomfortable
with the idea of a union designed to promote
economic integration adopting such blatantly political
positions.


4. (C) As for the April GAERC meeting, MFA Office Director
for CFSP Patrick Maisonnave advised PolOffs on April 25
that Iran will not be a focus of discussion, and he alluded
to the EU's internal divisions over how best to incorporate
UNSCR 1803 into commonly applied regulations.

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KOSOVO: SERBIA IS NOW THE PRIORITY
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5. (C) Araud regretted what he views as a difference in

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emphasis between U.S. and French policy in the Balkans.
For the GOF, the priority now is to "get back Serbia."
Specifically, the French do not want to do anything that
could jeopardize results in the Serbian elections on May 11,
including actions designed to ensure the "territorial
sovereignty" of Kosovo in name only. The GOF views
territorial sovereignty in the northern part of Kosovo as a
"credible fiction;" Kosovo Serbs will not accept Kosovo's
Independence, and it is important to avoid overt
confrontation or an escalation of violence. Complicating the
picture is the position of the UN, which is weakened by
the fact that less than 40 countries have thus far recognized
Kosovo and Russia is using this to pressure
UNSYG Ban Ki Moon. Therefore, the best option is to keep
exchanges on the subject low-key and adapt to the realities
on the ground. For example, in practice it may be best for
the EU presence to be strongest in the south while the UN
should remain more visible in the North of Kosovo.


6. (C) Araud informed us that France is looking at several
ways to help the pro-European, pro-democracy supporters in
Serbia. First, the GOF would like to be able to offer Serbs
visa-free travel to the EU before the May elections, as a
strong signal that they are welcome and accepted in Europe.
France is also working very hard within the EU to
get the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) signed.
Araud was not sure whether the GOF would succeed in
overcoming Dutch resistance to offering the Serbs an SAA
before they have turned over the Srebenica war criminals.
Finally, both France and the EU are willing to support the
Serbian government financially. France is considering its
response to a Serbian request for USD 400 million in
assistance while the EU, which can "give money without the
public noticing," is working on a 200-million euro assistance
package.


7. (C) Maisonnave advised us April 25 that France welcomed
the U.S. demarches encouraging recognition of Kosovo, and
said that France has focused its efforts on the 9 EU members
that have not yet done so. For this month's GAERC, he stated
that the Netherlands may have more flexibility regarding the
SAA following this week's parliamentary debates, and that
there could be progress at the meeting. He added, regarding
the transition from UNMIK to EULEX, that deployment must take
account of the changes in context, but that with pragmatism,
the transition can still be smooth,
just slower. Maisonnave also advised us that the EU is
working hard on the proposal to grant free EU visas for
Serbians but acknowledged that the initiative will likely
have little impact on the May 11 Serbian elections.

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EU-RUSSIA: A MISSED OPPORTUNITY?
--------------


8. (C) Maisonnave said that this GAERC will not produce very
significant results, in part because an opportunity is
being missed to make progress on EU-Russia relations with a
new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. He said that the
EU must try to renew its relations with Russia due to the
high stakes, new Russian leadership, and increased
understanding in the last few months of the dynamics between
Russian internal politics and foreign policy. However,
Lithuania is blocking progress on the new Agreement due to
bilateral issues.

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UZBEKISTAN: VISA BAN EXTENDED
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9. (C) Maisonnave advised us that Uzbekistan will be a
subject of the GAERC, with EU member-states extending the
visa ban for six more months.

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BOSNIA: FRANCE WELCOMES POLICE REFORM, ENCOURAGES SAA
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10. (U) GOF authorities publicly welcomed the final adoption
of two police reform bills in Bosnia-Herzegovina
(BiH) on April 18. The MFA spokesman noted that police
reform was one of the conditions for the signing of the
Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) between the EU
and BiH, adding that now that this stage has been
crossed, the GOF hopes the agreement can be signed. France
also expressed its support for EU Special Representative in
BiH, Miroslav Lajcak.

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GEORGIA: CONCERN OVER MOSCOW'S COOPERATION WITH SEPARATISTS
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11. (U) France is concerned about the Kremlin's announcement
that Russia intends to reinforce its
cooperation with Georgian separatists in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia, according to the MFA spokesman on April 17. The
MFA said it is waiting for clarification from the Kremlin and
called on all parties to avoid any violent escalation.
The spokesman recalled UNSCR 1808 noting the UNSC's support
for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia
according to its internationally recognized borders. The GOF
also noted that it supports, without any reservations,
the efforts of the OSCE and the UN/SYG's Friends of Georgia
to assist in a lasting solution to the conflicts in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

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IRAQ, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE
--------------


12. (C) Maisonnave said that this GAERC will not issue any
conclusions on Iraq, as EU policy has not recently
changed. He described that policy as being "still in the
declaratory phase" and said that the EU does not have a
lever in the Iraq situation. When asked about possible EU
efforts to ameliorate the humanitarian situation of
Iraqi refugees in neighboring countries, he noted that France
and the EU appreciated the magnitude of the problem but had
no plans to increase assistance (Maisonnave emphasized that
such a discussion was not planned at the GAERC in any event).
FM Kouchner and other EU participants in the recent
"neighbors" meeting in Kuwait will report to the Council on
what transpired from that event.


13. (C) Maisonnave predicted that the GAERC debate on
Israeli-Palestinian Peace will be very quick, as there are
no new subjects and thus no recent changes in position.

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ZIMBABWE: FRENCH INCREASINGLY CRITICAL OF GOZ
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14. (SBU) French policy towards Zimbabwe has been very
similar to that of the USG and has become increasingly
critical because of the GOZ's failure to resolve the current
crisis and its continued refusal to release the
results of the March 29 elections. FM Kouchner joined his
counterparts from Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK,
Slovakia, and Slovenia on March 31 in congratulating Zimbabwe
on holding its elections in a generally peaceful
manner. However, the GOF also asked that election results
be posted promptly. The French on April 4 criticized the
GOZ's arrest of journalists and harassment of the MDC party.
The MFA on April 7 repeated its call for the
release of election results. On April 15, the MFA expressed
France's strong concern and deplored the fact
that election results still had not been announced. The MFA
supported the April 12 SADC Summit call for the results
to be published, stating that "we have two concerns -- the
respect for the result of the vote and the stability of the
region. The Zimbabwean authorities owe the truth to their
people."


15. (C) Maisonnave noted that for the April GAERC, the EU
position will echo prior statements in calling for
publication of election results, non-violence, and supporting
the mediation of the SADC and AU (barring better
alternatives, Maisonnave acknowledged). He said that the GOF
was pleased by the recall of the arms-carrying ship as
announced by a Chinese official today. Maisonnave said that
EU member-states differ in their sensitivities when
dealing with the Zimbabwe situation, but that any
disagreement is about tactics, given the limited options. He
indicated little confidence in SADC's ability to act in a
united or effective fashion on Zimbabwe, meaning that South
African President Mbeki was the sole African leader who might
have a decisive impact on any outcome.

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BURMA, PAKISTAN, CHINA/TIBET
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16. (SBU) BURMA: Maisonnave said that the April GAERC
meeting will produce a "marker" on Burma, indicating that
future action will depend on developments such as the outcome
of Gambari's efforts. He noted that some EU
member-states, including France, fear going too far, too fast
on sanctions. France supports new measures
that would affect the regime, but is unsure how effective any
new measures would be. France continues to look for
ways to "touch the regime's accounts." The French agree that
the Burmese regime remains closed to the demands of
its people for a genuine dialogue, and have not demonstrated
willingness to hold a transparent referendum

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on May 10.


17. (SBU) PAKISTAN: In recent statements and conversations
with Embassy officials, France has commended the Pakistani
government and President Musharraf for successful elections.
France sees Pakistan as a key regional ally in the fight
against terrorism and will continue to work with the
Pakistani government to improve regional security. Most
French aid to Pakistan is through EU donations, but France
will continue to work with the EU to assist Pakistani
development.


18. (SBU) CHINA/TIBET: Similarly, the GOF has in recent
days continued to urge China to engage in a dialogue with the
Dalai Lama before the start of the Olympic games. France
will discuss attendance at the Olympic games with EU
partners, particularly in light of its upcoming EU
Presidency, and has set no conditions for French attendance
at the games or opening ceremonies.


Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


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