SUDAN/KENYA/RWANDA: MFA DAS PROVIES OVERVIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000081

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS PINS PHUM SU CD CT KE RW FR
SUBJECT: SUDAN/KENYA/RWANDA: MFA DAS PROVIES OVERVIEW

REF: PARIS 72

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, 1.4 (b/d
).


1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA DAS-equivalent Helene Le Gal (Central
and East Africa) on January 11 said that France was highly
concerned about renewed Chad-Sudan fighting but that the
arrival in February of the EU's PKO in Chad and C.A.R. could
help ease tensions. France renewed Abdulwahid el-Nur's
residency permit at the end of December, but only for one
month, and continues to urge him to join the peace process.
France, along with other EU members, considers the recent
elections in Kenya to have been massively fraudulent, and is
considering suspending assistance programs. Le Gal confirmed
the arrest of Rwandan genocide suspect Marcel Bivugabagabo
but cautioned that extradition could be a long process, with
no guarantee that he would be returned to Rwanda. She said
that France remains open to normalizing relations with Rwanda
but that the Rwandans do not seem willing to move so long as
former Judge Bruguiere's report, accusing a number of
Rwandans, including President Kagame, of involvement in the
1994 genocide, continues to stand. END SUMMARY.

SUDAN


2. (C) MFA DAS-equivalent Helene Le Gal on January 11
reviewed a number of subjects within her area of
responsibility, beginning with Sudan. She said that France
was highly concerned about the renewal of fighting between
Chad and Sudan, which was following "the classic pattern" --
GOC forces going after Chadian rebels in Sudan, and Sudanese
forces opposing Sudanese rebels in Chad. What was new and
disturbing, however, was Chad's aerial bombardment of
supposed Chadian rebel camps well within Sudan. When asked
how Chad had acquired the means to carry out such attacks, Le
Gal said that it had used its "oil money" to buy or rent the
services of "the usual suspects" in terms of arms suppliers.
She noted that JEM was taking over relatively broad areas of
western Darfur and was benefiting (perhaps not
uncoincidentally) from the Chadian aerial bombardments. Le
Gal said that the only recent positive development related to
Sudan was the easing of North-South tensions. She added that
the arrival in February of the EU's peacekeeping mission in
Chad and C.A.R. would have a deterrent effect that could ease
tension and perhaps reduce the level of fighting.


3. (C) Le Gal said that France had, reluctantly, extended
Darfur rebel leader Abdulwahid el-Nur's French residency
permit when it expired on December 28, but that the extension
was for one month only. He was told at the time of the
renewal that further extensions would be contingent on his
joining the peace talks. However, Le Gal noted that the
peace talks were moribund and that, at the end of January,
Abdulwahid could, not unfairly, claim that it was impossible
for him to join peace talks that did not exist and that his
residency should be extended again. Le Gal said that in such
a case, the GOF probably would extend his permit. She
commented that Abdulwahid continued to show no signs of
cooperating with others, instead relying on his usual mantra
that "everyone should follow me."

KENYA


4. (C) Le Gal said that EU member states were united in
their belief that the recent Kenyan elections were massively
fraudulent and that the results announced were contrary to
the actual vote. MFA desk officer Thierry Caboche
participated in the EU observer mission and Le Gal said that
he and other observers had no doubt that the "election was
stolen." Le Gal said that all EU member states were deeply
disappointed in this development as Kenya had had such a good
reputation, with an apparent entrenched commitment to
democracy. Now, she reported, the EU was considering
suspending some forms of economic assistance. She said that
France would likely join EU consensus, noting that "we have a
fair number of projects in Kenya." She regretted this but
said that Europe rightfully had held Kenya to a high
standard. "If we 'punish' other less developed countries for
their 'errors,' we can hardly let Kenya get away with what
has happened," Le Gal commented. She added that a recount of
the vote was no longer plausible; too much time had elapsed
to allow for confidence in the integrity of the ballots. If
Kenya wanted to do something, "the only thing would be to
hold completely new elections," she observed.


PARIS 00000081 002 OF 002


RWANDA


5. (C) Le Gal confirmed the recent arrest in the Toulouse
area of former Rwandan Lieutenant Colonel Marcel
Bivugabagabo, who was one of nine Rwandans supposedly living
in France named in a September 2007 warrant forwarded by
Rwanda to France. Le Gal said that the arrest was a good
step in terms of France-Rwanda relations, but she expressed
doubt that Bivugabagabo would be returned soon to Rwanda.
His case would be heard in court and she cautioned that a
judge could plausibly conclude that Bivugabagabo faced a high
chance of persecution if he returned to Rwanda, even though
Rwanda had abolished the death penalty. His case could,
therefore, take a long time, with no assurance that he would
be extradited.


6. (C) Le Gal said that France remained ready to normalize
relations with Rwanda, and so too, to a limited extent, did
Rwanda. The obstacle that the Rwandans could not overcome,
however, was then-Judge Bruguiere's report on the 1994
genocide and his recommendation that a number of senior
Rwandans be either prosecuted or investigated for
involvement. President Kagame was among this group, and he
remained, in Le Gal's view, adamantly opposed to improving
relations so long as Bruguiere's report continued to carry
legal weight, which it did. Addressed in part to the UN, the
report did not receive much in the way of a response by
then-SYG Kofi Annan, but Kagame was not assuaged. Le Gal
believed that he would continue to resist efforts to improve
relations until something was done by the GOF to negate or
nullify the report. Unfortunately, Le Gal noted, the matter
rested with the judiciary, over which the GOF had only
limited control, a point the Rwandans understood but had
trouble stomaching. She thus concluded that despite French
willingness, relations with Rwanda were likely to improve
slowly, if at all.




Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


PEKALA