Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08PARIS498
2008-03-17 16:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

MINIMAL FRENCH EXPECTATIONS FOR FOURTH ROUND OF

Tags:  PREL PBTS PTER FR MO AG SA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7072
OO RUEHTRO
DE RUEHFR #0498/01 0771631
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 171631Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2290
INFO RUCNMGH/MAGHREB COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000498 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG, IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2018
TAGS: PREL PBTS PTER FR MO AG SA
SUBJECT: MINIMAL FRENCH EXPECTATIONS FOR FOURTH ROUND OF
WESTERN SAHARA TALKS IN MANHASSET

REF: A. (A) RABAT 236

B. (B) PARIS 202

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4. (b),(d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000498

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG, IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2018
TAGS: PREL PBTS PTER FR MO AG SA
SUBJECT: MINIMAL FRENCH EXPECTATIONS FOR FOURTH ROUND OF
WESTERN SAHARA TALKS IN MANHASSET

REF: A. (A) RABAT 236

B. (B) PARIS 202

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4. (b),(d).


1. (C) French MFA DAS-equivalent for North Africa Nathalie
Loiseau told us March 12 that the GOF continued to have
extremely low expectations for the fourth round of
UN-sponsored talks on Western Sahara set for early next week
in Manhasset. Indeed, the French are so pessimistic that
they hope the continued failure to make any meaningful
progress does not erode the delicate consensus in the UN
Security Council that allowed it to pass two resolutions
inter alia referring to the Moroccan autonomy plan as a
potential basis for negotiations. As Loiseau put it, the
risk is that the delicate "unbalanced balance" slightly in
Morocco's favor could return to a less satisfactory balance
favoring neither that results in further paralysis.


2. (C) UNSYG Personal Envoy Peter van Walsum's Paris stop
in mid-February after his tour of the region apparently did
nothing to ease French concerns about the overall direction
of the Manhasset talks or van Walsum's role in the diplomatic
process. According to Loiseau, van Walsum met with French
Presidency diplomatic adviser Jean-David Levitte and senior
IO and NEA bureau equivalents at the MFA. The readout from
his discussions was vague but congruent with what his staff
has told Department officers and our embassies have reported
from the region. Loiseau complained that van Walsum
frustrated his French interlocutors by not answering many of
their questions, particularly on the way ahead. It was not
clear, for example, what his repeated claims to have told the
Algerians and Polisario that he continues to believe an
independent Sahrawi state is not viable really mean in
concrete terms for the negotiations in progress. Loiseau
hinted that the French are thinking about an approach to the
UNSYG or senior UN Secretariat staff about a possible
alternative to van Walsum. When pressed on this point,

however, she indicated that nothing imminent was likely to
happen. Instead, France will wait for the fourth round to
occur and for van Walsum's report to the UNSC next month in
conjunction with the debate on MINURSO's renewal. Loiseau
expressed the faint hope that van Walsum would state more
clearly than he has in the past responsibility for the lack
of progress in the talks.


3. (C) In terms of UNSC dynamics, Loiseau reported that
French President Sarkozy had raised Western Sahara during his
recent visit to South Africa when he met with President
Mbeki, emphasizing the need to resolve this longstanding
question for the sake of regional stability. Sarkozy asked
Mbeki to review the Moroccan autonomy plan with an eye to
accepting it as the formal basis for negotiations. Mbeki,
according to Loiseau, did not reject Sarkozy's appeal out of
hand but did refer to the ANC's historical ties dating back
decades with the Polisario to the time when both were engaged
in "liberation struggles."


4. (C) During a brief discussion of NEA A/S Welch's visit
to North Africa, Loiseau agreed with our impression that
neither the Moroccans nor the Algerians were inclined to
change the generally negative dynamic in their bilateral
relationship. She placed most of the blame on Algeria for
preferring to use the unresolved conflict as a lever in its
contest for regional supremacy with Morocco. Her impression
remained that the Algerian leadership was largely detached
from the dispute in terms of seeking its resolution and had
no political interest in doing so while sensitive political
issues related to fighting terrorism and President
Bouteflika's quest for a third term were more prominent.
Loiseau lamented how Algeria's obstructive diplomatic efforts
had successfully countered what she considered a fairly
effective and laudable Moroccan campaign to sell its plan to
members of the UNSC and beyond.


5. (C) Returning to French criticism of van Walsum, Loiseau
expressed concern that he was jeopardizing the confidence
building measures -- especially the family visits -- by
introducing them into the political discussions. France sees
the CBMs (with the possible exception of the thematic
seminars, which are problematic for Morocco) as the one ray
of hope in an otherwise hopeless situation. She hoped that
the USG would continue to support the CBMs and keep them as
separate as possible from the so far intractable core
political issues.


6. (C) Comment: French expectations for the next round in
Manhasset were already minimal, but the meeting with van

PARIS 00000498 002 OF 002


Walsum only seems to have reinforced fears that the limited
progress achieved in the UNSC could be rolled back by the
impression of further inertia. We had not seen ref a on the
latest Moroccan complaints about Polisario activity east of
the berm prior to the meeting, but Loiseau stressed French
appeals to Morocco and Algeria to refrain from rhetoric or
actions that might provoke the other side. Although less
firmly expressed than at our last meeting, Loiseau stated
that France remains convinced that the stakes are too high in
terms of security and regional stability to allow the UN to
drift back into a posture that would entertain an independent
Sahrawi state as a potential outcome. The recent kidnapping
of Austrian tourists in Tunisia and Algeria's apparent
inability to prevent the perpetrators from reaching a reputed
sanctuary in Mali underscores for Paris how easy it is for
terrorists to range throughout the trans-Sahara region.
Loiseau, who visited Western Sahara during a previous posting
in Rabat, further expressed for the first time we have heard
from a French official worry that Sahrawi frustration could
lead some of its population to join with Islamist terrorists.
She repeated the hope that the U.S. and France would confer
after the fourth round of talks in Manhasset on next steps
prior to MINURSO's renewal and beyond. Embassy Paris would
strongly support such consultations. End comment

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


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