LATEST ELYSEE TAKE ON LEBANON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000216

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM FR LE SY
SUBJECT: LATEST ELYSEE TAKE ON LEBANON


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Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, for reas
ons 1.4. (b),(d).


1. (C) French Presidency adviser on NEA affairs Boris
Boillon told us February 1 that France has run out of
"levers, carrots, and sticks" to use in resolving the
continued political impasse in Lebanon. The word from the
French embassy in Damascus, he added, was that Syrian
President Asad has said that, if forced to choose between
hosting the Arab League summit or staying the course in
Lebanon, he will choose staying the course in Lebanon.
France's ambassador to Syria reports that, with only weeks
before the projected summit, Syria has done nothing to
prepare for it.


2. (C) To emphasize France's dilemma given the current
situation, Boillon ran through four "weapons" that presumably
could be used against Syria to force it to accept Michel
Sleiman's election as president:

--Not holding the Arab summit in Damascus: As noted above,
this has proven to be a "false weapon."

--Moving ahead with the Special Tribunal: This is a long
shot, since the Tribunal still lacks about USD 15 million to
start operations. He pointed to the lack of contributions by
other EU, Gulf state, or Maghreb governments. He called the
Saudis' failure to contribute "shameful" and strange. When
French President Sarkozy raised the issue with King Abdallah
recently, Abdallah replied only that he would refer the issue
to God.

--Threat of Israeli military action: A dangerous option that
would be "out of our control." Boillon said that it was also
unlikely in the absence of an immediate crisis or provocation.

--Tightening sanctions: The problem with this option is
determining the basis for their imposition. Syrian FM
Mu'allim has regularly challenged his interlocutors to
provide the proof of Syrian responsibility for violence or
the lack of progress in Lebanon. Boillon contended that
Europeans would not unify behind sanctions. He blamed a
growing tendency among Europeans to engage in legalistic
argumentation rather than asserting state power. Referring
to recent events, Boillon asked why France should ban
Mu'allim from visiting if Germany will welcome him. He
compared Syria to a slippery bar of soap on which no one can
get a firm grip. Moreover, in his glum summation, the Saudis
and Egyptians will do nothing. Why should France be "more
Arab than the Arabs" vis-a-vis Syria?


3. (C) Boillon opined that the Syrians have "won" with the
agreement on Sleiman and have pocketed his candidacy to get
more concessions. We asked about the recent rumors that
France had toyed with a Faris Boueiz candidacy. Boillon
responded: "Let's be clear. Qatari PM/FM Hamid bin Jasim
came to Paris presenting ideas that included a Boueiz
candidacy, since Sleiman was going nowhere. We responded
clearly that the current Arab league initiative was the only
clear line forward and there was no question of France
changing from its support for Sleiman." He claimed that the
Elysee told HBJ that this latest ploy would only drag things
out and allow the situation to worsen. This was not time to
change course again; the Arab League initiative, accepted by
all Arabs, was the only viable one in play. Boillon noted
that Boueiz was in Paris during HBJ's visit fanning rumors
that he was about to be anointed as the alternative to
Sleiman.

4, (C) Voicing his personal opinion, Boillon said he thinks
the Syrians want to drag things out until a new U.S.
administration takes office. Nevertheless, the Syrians
continue to say that they support Sleiman and have no
problems with him; it is just a question of the proper
formation of the government. Boillon asserted that the
Syrians have proven they will not live up to their word and
will continue to change conditions for any settlement. It
now appears that agreeing to Sleiman was a pretext to play
for time. In addition, he continued, Michel Aoun is blocking
progress in furtherance of his own ambitions. The blame was
not entirely on the March 8/Syrian side, according to
Boillon. Too many others in Lebanon, including within March
14, have no interest in pushing the status quo forward. The
West seemed alone in agonizing about the future of Lebanon.


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5. (C) Boillon concluded his discussion of Lebanon by
saying that France is being prudent and has no initiative in
play or planned (given the failure of its most recent
efforts) but remains engaged. The immediate risk is that the
continued impasse and steady deterioration of the security
situation will continue to undermine Sleiman's candidacy.
For now, however, France supports the Arab League initiative,
has cut off all senior-level contact with Syria, has rejected
the Qatari initiative, and has no plans to try anything new.


6. (C) Comment: The impression that the French are out of
ideas and waiting anxiously to see what happens has come
across in our most recent discussions during visits by
Staffdel Diamond and OVP Deputy Assistant for National
Security Joseph Wood. Boillon and others have referred to
"Lebanon fatigue" at the UN, and it seems to have permeated
the GOF here. FM Kouchner has several times publicly
expressed strong French support for the Arab League
initiative, although taking pains to describe it as an
outgrowth of initiatives he had already launched. This, for
now, seems as far as the French are prepared to go after the
failure of their diplomatic efforts with Syria.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


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