FLIRTING WITH DISASTER: FRANCE PREPARES FOR THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002005

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN XT XF FR EZ EG IS SW AL
SUBJECT: FLIRTING WITH DISASTER: FRANCE PREPARES FOR THE
FATEFUL MARSEILLE MINISTERIAL ON THE MEDITERRANEAN UNION

REF: A. PARIS 1998

B. PARIS 1997 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Kathy Allegrone for reasons
1.4. (b),(d).


1. (C) As Paris moves into the weekend before the Union for
the Mediterranean (UPM) ministerial in Marseille 3-4
November, great uncertainty about its outcome and prospects
for making good on the grand vision for the UPM sketched out
in Paris last July prevail. A senior-level contact at the
French MFA told us October 31 that none of the key decisions,
from the location of the UPM's secretariat to the duration of
the "northern" co-presidency (currently held by France as EU
president),have been decided definitively.


2. (C) French President Sarkozy and Egyptian President
Mubarak largely agreed on a way forward over the question of
the Arab League's observer status (per ref a),according to
the same source, but this had not yet translated into
widespread Arab acceptance. French FM Kouchner, he
continued, had worked the phones with Israeli FM Tzipi Livni
to secure her agreement (in that context, our source denied
all claims that Kouchner or Sarkozy felt any bitterness over
Livni's decision not to attend the Marseille ministerial,
given the internal political situation in Israel). The Czech
prime minister's visit to Paris October 31 and meeting with
Sarkozy may pave the way for a compromise on France's
insistence that it maintain some hold on the EU part of the
co-presidency. Our senior MFA source indicated the French
would press for agreement for a shared presidency among the
EU Troika that would keep France in the picture until at
least next July, i.e., what the French regard as the most
critical period in the UPM's formation.


3. (C) Embassy has reported in cables and Paris Points over
the past several weeks French woes in securing agreement to
the key decisions to be taken in Marseille and on the text of
the final communique the ministers will issue. The GOF's
interministerial coordinator for the UPM Serge Telle
confirmed to us in frank terms as early as October 14 that
all EU attempts at working level meetings to hash things out
had failed over Israel's adamant refusal to allow an Arab
League observer delegation to be present and over adamant
Arab refusal to accept its exclusion. He and Elysee special
adviser Henri Guaino had visited Israel and Egypt a number of
times, in addition to tens of phone calls, to try to break
the impasse with no effect. France had hoped to find
agreement along the lines of the understanding for the
Barcelona Process, i.e. at ministerial level gatherings in a
strict observer capacity. Claiming to reflect the majority
Arab view, the Egyptians insisted on participation in lower
level meetings, including on thematic subjects. The end
result has been virtual paralysis, with the French having to
circulate the draft declaration to all 43 parties and to
synthesize all the comments in painstaking fashion.


4. (C) Telle's hope that a late October water meeting in
Amman, Jordan, would offer a last-ditch opportunity for a
working meeting prior to the ministerial when the Jordanians
pulled the plug on the water meeting because of the dispute
over Arab League participation. Even as he expressed
frustration (and took calls from subordinates in contact with
the different players),Telle reaffirmed Sarkozy's total
commitment to the UPM's success. The Marseille ministerial
was intended to discuss the UPM's governance (including
establishment of its secretariat),the state of efforts to
draw up a project-specific workplan, and "the political
situation" (the latter being a requirement Telle accepted
with the argument that it would be "absurd" to ignore the
Israeli/Palestinian dispute). Telle did not know on October
14 which of the candidates for the secretariat's location --
Tunis, Valletta, or Barcelona -- would win out, but the
latest word we heard from MFA's North Africa DAS-equivalent
Cyrille Rogeau on October 31 was that Barcelona was emerging
as the clear favorite since most Arabs did not want the
secretariat located anywhere that Israeli participation would
provoke controversy.


5. (C) Comment: The French are plowing ahead with the UPM
ministerial, despite brief hints they might cancel it at the
last minute. One option, suggested by Telle, would be to
defer until 2009 many of the decisions that were supposed to
have been decided in Marseille. This would include the
secretariat location, which Telle and others have said is
not critical until the projects under consideration or being
implemented reaches critical mass. If anything, however, the
potential for a fiasco in Marseille has driven renewed
reflection on the management structure for directing the
French effort on behalf of the UPM. Our senior MFA source
acknowledged that the lack of full MFA involvement or buy-in

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to the UPM project has been an ongoing problem from the
start, given the Elysee's dominance of the process from the
outset through to the July 2008 Paris summit. Telle's
status, like that of his predecessor Alain LeRoy, has been
ambiguous and subject to being undercut by Guaino, who
reportedly has not been disposed to coordinate his activities
with Telle or any of his subordinates. According to our MFA
source, Kouchner, whose credibility is somewhat on the line
for the success or failure at Marseille, has decided in the
past few days that the effort needs to be fundamentally
reorganized and intends to press the Elysee to place the
entire operation fully under the MFA's tutelage. That, of
course, could depend on how well the French get through the
Marseille ministerial next week.

STAPLETON