USDP EDELMAN DISCUSSES AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN,

S E C R E T PARIS 001751

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2018
TAGS: PREL MOPS NATO AF PA GG RU FR
SUBJECT: USDP EDELMAN DISCUSSES AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN,
RUSSIA AND GEORGIA

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathleen Allegrone for reas
ons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. On September 12, USDP Edelman and Counselor
Eliot Cohen met with Philippe Errera, Strategic Affairs
Advisor to FM Kouchner; Francois Richier, Strategic Affairs
Advisor to President Sarkozy; and Michel Miraillet, Director
of Strategic Affairs at the MOD, to discuss Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Russia and Georgia. The French agreed that
civilian casualties, a re-emergent insurgency and a weak
national government are important challenges for the
international community in Afghanistan. The French
Government anticipates Parliamentary approval on the
September 22 vote on ISAF troop deployments. The French
judge that the lack of a functioning administration in the
federal tribal areas of Pakistan has allowed the Taliban and
Al-Qaeda to create "safe havens" and the Pakistani government
is not capable of dealing with this threat within their
borders. On Iran, the French are worried about keeping
pressure on the government in Tehran. USDP emphasized that
in Georgia, the international community should focus on: the
withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia proper and lowering
the number of troops in the disputed regions; ensuring that
the EU observers have full access to South Ossetia and
Abkhazia as well as the buffer zones; and resolving the
question of participants at the October 15 discussions.
Miraillet also provided a status update on European Security
and Defense Policy (ESDP) and proposed the next bilateral
exchange for Washington in November. End Summary.

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AFGHANISTAN COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY
--------------


2. (C) USDP began all the meetings by expressing condolences
for the August 18 death of 10 French soldiers in Afghanistan.
The USG greatly appreciates the "exemplary" reaction of the
French President and other leaders who have reinforced the
importance of the NATO mission in Afghanistan in their public
messages. He said that following the Gates-Morin phone call,
the Defense Department has worked hard to get French forces
the additional 50 communications radios they require, which
were to be delivered on September 15. USDP emphasized that
the challenges in Afghanistan are long-term and include
battling illiteracy, corruption and narco-trafficking in
addition to the reemergence of an insurgency that has led to
a growing concern about personal security among the Afghan
population. To assist, President Bush recently announced the
shifting of some 5500 U.S. forces from Iraq to Afghanistan.
In addition, U.S. General David McKiernan who is the
Commander of ISAF will also take over responsibility for
Operation Enduring Freedom, to ensure more coherence and
cooperation between the two. Richier acknowledged that
France has been informed about this change of command and had
no problem with it.


3. (C) Errera agreed with the U.S. assessment and said that
Afghan President Karzai is losing political support and
either does not realize it, or does not know what to do about
it. Elections next year will be difficult, as it is possible
that Karzai could be re-elected with a weak mandate, or
through the result of elections that are not free and fair.
Postponing elections is also not an option. In addition, the
GOF is focused on the issue of reconciliation. To Paris,
this is not a question of "negotiating with terrorists,"
particularly as many of the groups are not centralized and we
do not want to treat them as a single adversary. Errera
suggested that the U.S. and France consult closely on
insurgency issues, to make sure our analyses are in sync.
USDP acknowledged that some element of reconciliation should
be pursued and added that we had seen positive developments
in regions such as Khost and Nagahar, which have good local
governors. Errera and Richier raised the increasing problem
of civilian casualties and USDP acknowledged the issue and
said that there will be a reinvestigation of the recent
claims from Shindand province. Miraillet said that President
Sarkozy's last meeting with Karzai was "difficult," and in
that meeting French Ambassador to Afghanistan Ponton
d'Amecourt had criticized National Director of Security Saleh
for his failure to share information. Sarkozy has said from
now on this had to change. Miraillet said that during that
meeting, Karzai noted straightforwardly that "for the first
time, Afghanistan was surrounded by the Taliban," the tactic
that the Pakistani ISI taught the Taliban during the Soviet

era. Miraillet questioned whether our own intelligence
sharing could improve, asking how coordinated our ground
intelligence is and suggesting that the French have also had
difficulties with the UK in that respect. Richier informed
USDP that he, together with Sarkozy's Chief Military Advisor
Admiral Guillaud will travel to Afghanistan and then Pakistan
the week of September 15 to focus on lessons learned from the
August 18 incident (which caused the loss of 10 French
soldiers) and expressed appreciation for that day's phone
call between General Petraeus in Baghdad and Guillaud.


4. (C) Richier was focused on the upcoming parliamentary
debate on September 22 to vote on French deployments (a new
constitutional requirement). While the President's party has
a majority in the parliament and the GOF is not worried about
the outcome of the vote, they do expect an active debate on
the international community's strategy in Afghanistan (to
include counternarcotics, corruption, etc.) The vote will be
a straight up and down vote of approval, with no opportunity
for MPs to add conditions or caveats to the existing
deployment. Nonetheless, said Richier, France now "owns the
problem" and has to look more closely at "how to fix it"
including answering questions about civilian deaths,
continuing drug smuggling, etc. Miraillet said that France
is likely to increase its deployment of UAVs and helicopters,
but that Special Forces are unlikely to be deployed in the
near-term. Richier pointed out, however, that it remains
easier for France to supply additional troops than additional
funding for reconstruction. Richier also raised the need to
get the story out publicly, lamenting the bad experience of
the French-Algerian war. He asked for U.S. views about
managing the the "strategic communication" message,
recognizing the need to better inform the French public about
events.

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PAKISTAN POLITICS and CAPACITY
--------------


5. (C) USDP addressed the problem of Taliban and Al-Qaeda
fighters who are using safe havens in Pakistan to operate
along the border. This has led to a big increase in activity
in RC-E and we are seeing better organized fighters capable
of engaging in larger and more sophisticated operations.
Unfortunately, the Pakistan government is pre-occupied with
its political and economic problems. Counselor Cohen added
that the administrative system in the federal tribal areas
within Pakistan (FATA) has collapsed and the Pakistani
military is unwilling to accept the assistance it needs to
control the insurgency within its borders.


6. (C) Miraillet said that the GOF at all levels sees as
"crystal clear" the links between Pakistan and Afghan
stability. However, the French are frustrated by their lack
of "tools" and their limited relationships in Pakistan. He
described Zardari as "nothing," and stated his belief that
rivalry will dominate Pakistani politics in the near term,
with Sharif headed for the Prime Minister slot. The army's
situation has gotten worse in the last 6 months, and a new
season of terrorism lies ahead, which may be exploited by
elements of ISI. Miraillet noted that a trilateral
intelligence exchange involving the U.S., France and the
United Kingdom could be helpful.

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WORRIES ABOUT IRAN
--------------


7. (S/NF) USDP stated that the efforts by the EU and the
U.S. Treasury Department are having an effect: the Iranians
are having greater difficulty moving their money and that is
making life more difficult. However, with recent
developments in the Caucasus, the west cannot count on
Russia's support to increase pressure on the Iranian regime,
even if it is in their best interests as well. USDP said the
USG is looking to see what else we can do outside the UN
Security Council, such as going after subsidiaries doing
business in Iran and looking at proposals about insurance and
re-insurance as levers. Errera agreed and said that the best
hopes are to coordinate national measures outside of the EU,
as it is extremely difficult to get consensus at 27.
Miraillet later expressed doubts that Italy will be tough
enough on Iran or on Russia. Richier agreed on the need for
economic measures and highlighted the utility of possible

sanctions on export of spare parts for Iran's oil and gas
production.

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RUSSIA-GEORGIA CONFLICT
--------------


8. (C) USDP expressed gratitude for the role French
President Nicolas Sarkozy is playing to help resolve the
crisis in Georgia. The international community must now
ensure that Russia abides by its commitments. In particular,
he said that we need to keep pushing on withdrawal of Russian
troops from Georgia proper and also on their increased troops
in the two breakaway regions. The EU observers must be able
to conduct their mission throughout Georgia, including within
South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Finally, the USG is paying
particular attention to the role of officials from the two
disputed territories in the October 15 international
discussions. It is important that if representatives attend,
they cannot have flags or other status as independent
nations. Errera agreed with our approach, saying the French
agree on complete Russian withdrawal (with withdrawal from
Georgia proper as the first step) and that the EU observers
should have full access, even if they deploy first only in
the buffer zones. Miraillet noted that France is prepared to
contribute up to 200 gendarmes to ensure on-time deployment
of the 200-strong EU observer mission. The French noted that
there would be a Political Directors meeting during the week
of September 15 in Washington to discuss the sensitivities of
South Ossetian and Abkhazian participation in the October 15
discussions. USDP reinforced the importance of unity, within
the EU, within NATO and within the transatlantic
relationship, as the Russians try to push their agenda by
driving wedges within the transatlantic community. Miraillet
noted that Russia also has leverage within the EU, such as
its offer to contribute 4 helicopters to the EUFOR mission in
Chad. Miraillet said the contribution of only 4 helicopters
reflects Russia's own military shortfalls, but said the EU
still needs those 4 helicopters. He described Russian
leadership as "good poker players."


9. (C) Miraillet said that while Georgia has provided a good
opportunity for a strong show of EU unity, including rapid
deployment of an ESDP mission, that some Russian statements
have been "blows" to undermine the diplomatic effort. While
expressing optimism about French-brokered Russian withdrawal
and EU observer mission gaining access to South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, he noted potential for further hot points, such as
Ukraine's continued relationship as an arms supplier to
Georgia that could provoke Russia into taking action on the
Crimea. He called Belarus' "measured" response to the crisis
in Georgia very interesting, as Moscow could return to being
the capital of an "empire" by re-attaching Belarus to Russia.
Looking forward, he noted that Russia will likely be unable
to fulfill its commitment on gas delivery to Europe by 2012.
As a result, Moscow will continue to seek to strengthen its
grip on gas reserves. In the region, he noted that
Turkmenistan has commitments to Russia, as well as to China,
Total, and Chevron. Miraillet observed that Russia would
likely take a tough line against Turkmenistan if Ashgabat
were unable to fulfill its Russian commitments. He said we
were in "wait and see" mode, but encouraged us not to
overestimate the impact of economics on Russia's flexibility.


10. (C) Miraillet asked whether NATO Membership Action Plans
(MAP) for Georgia and Ukraine were still a short-term
priority for the U.S. He noted that Russia acted against
Georgia despite very strong statements from NATO at the 2008
Bucharest summit, and suggested that public opinion would be
heavily opposed to MAP for Georgia now. He called the
NATO-Georgia Commission symbolically important, but implied
that NATO-Ukraine's relationship will be more hollow in light
of Georgia developments. Miraillet said that Ukraine wished
to contribute to the EU observer mission in Georgia, but that
France is pushing for EU members only.

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ESDP
--------------


11. (C) Miraillet said that the UK and France have
coordinated closely regarding the French EU Presidency's
European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) goals, but that
Gordon Brown and the Labor Party's loss of political capital

has made the UK a weak partner. He said the French efforts
to strengthen ESDP are focused on two areas, the European
Security Strategy (ESS) and capacities. The European
Security Strategy will be overhauled, representing a
compromise between the "European Defense White Paper"
requested by High Representative Solana and a mere update of
the existing ESS. Miraillet said the Germans forced the
compromise with their nervousness about what a White Paper
might say about Russia. Miraillet said that on the
capacities front, the October 1-2 Informal Defense
Ministerial will be critical, with discussion of a
French-drafted non-paper featuring 7 priority areas, each of
which will be introduced in the discussion by a different
member-state (for example, the UK will introduce naval
de-mining). Miraillet said the French will also hope for
progress on the establishment of an "Erasmus" military
exchange program and the creation of a strategic (not
operational) planning center in Brussels. He reiterated that
France does not want a Euro-SHAPE, but something "modest"
along the lines of the existing Civilian Planning and Conduct
Capability (CPCC). Noting that the French EU Presidency does
not have much time, he said France will work pragmatically
beyond its Presidency to address those needs. USDP noted
that the U.S. would like to make in-kind contribution to the
French-UK helicopter trust fund, such as indirect support via
the Czechs.

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PIRACY IN SOMALIA
--------------


12. (C) Richier briefly raised the issue of addressing
Somali piracy. He said France has one frigate in place and
will look at a rotation once the French hostage situation is
resolved (which has since occurred). He raised the
possibility of enlarging the NATO Standing NAVAL Maritime
Group (SNMG) to include fighting piracy in its mandate. He
emphasized that France has no/no opposition to a NATO
tasking.

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U.S. TRANSITION
--------------


13. (C) USDP suggested to Miraillet that in light of the
upcoming U.S. transition, similar exchanges between the
Pentagon and the French MOD should be institutionalized on a
once- or twice-annually basis, with the participation of the
State Department and French MFA. Miraillet expressed his
support for the concept, which he said he would float with
MFA colleagues. He noted that his "good friend" Jacques
Audibert, new MFA Director of Strategic Affairs, would be in
Washington in October or November. Miraillet also noted that
he and Audibert would both be in Washington in November for a
nuclear future exercise, along with members of the White
Paper Commission such as Therese Delpech, and that perhaps a
more formal meeting could take place on the margins.


14. (U) This message was cleared by USDP Edelman.


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