MORE FROM EU SPECIAL REP FOR GEORGIA AND FRENCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001745

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS MARR FR GG RS EU UN
SUBJECT: MORE FROM EU SPECIAL REP FOR GEORGIA AND FRENCH
MFA ON NEXT DIPLOMATIC STEPS

REF: USEU BRUSSELS 1430

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Kathleen Allegrone for reas
ons 1.4. (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: EU Special Representative for the Georgia
Crisis Pierre Morel took a few minutes from intensive
preparations for the EU/Central Asia forum to discuss his
thinking about preparations for the mid-October Geneva
meeting on Georgia. As noted in reftel, he plans to visit
New York and Washington next week and will make the rounds,
including Moscow and Tbilisi, to firm up a coordinated EU
position. He took on board many of our concerns but stressed
the need to work with the Russians despite their hard line
and the "brutality" of recent events. In this context, Morel
described his activities more as the start of a process
toward a conference that would constitute the start of a
"conversation." Consultations would be intense and
difficult, particularly among EU member states. The
impending EU/Central Asia forum will be an initial test of
attitudes in this "new phase," with the Russians seeking
recognition of the new reality in Georgia and the breakaway
regimes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He complained about
recent critical remarks about EU-led efforts attributed to
NATO SYG Hoop de Scheffer as "friendly fire" we need to avoid
to prevent a weakening of EU efforts and a strengthening of
Moscow's position. The French MFA, meanwhile, has stressed
pragmatism and results as the guiding principles for the
October 15 meeting on Georgia. End summary

Using EU/Central Asia FM Meeting to Underscore Resistance to
Russian Pressure
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Further to reftel, DCM, Polmincouns, and poloff met
briefly September 17 with EU Special Representative for the
Georgia crisis Pierre Morel, who apologized as his cellphone
rang every few minutes with calls related to the EU/Central
Asia ministerial forum to begin the next day. He explained
that, even as he was working furiously to set up his new EU
operation, he was heading up the logistical effort for the
Central Asia forum. Amplifying what he told EUR DAS Merkel
in Brussels, Morel repeated that he would depart for New York
at week's end for consultations at the UN related to Georgia
followed by a swing through Washington September 24-25. He
apologized for not speaking more substantively while he was
still setting up his mission, but he indicated his hope that
the Central Asia forum would help accelerate preparations for
the October conference on Georgia since it would be an
occasion to speak with representatives of all the key former
Soviet republics. With respect to the forum, Morel stressed
that it was not intended to chart a new course but be very
much a continuation of the line on EU/Central Asia
collaboration elaborated during the German EU presidency.


3. (C) Morel opined that one "failure" the Russians had
experienced recently related to the reaction of Central Asian
states. The "shock" of the recent conflict with Georgia had,
in his view, proven too much even for countries that normally
supported Moscow's line like Kazakhstan. Morel was uncertain
how to exploit this, however, given the uncompromising
Russian line. He predicted that, especially if Russia
complies with all its obligations to withdraw to positions
held on August 7, Moscow will renew its pressure on
neighboring states and others to recognize the new reality in
Georgia and of the breakaway regimes in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia. As we move into this new phase of confrontation,
Morel continued, the EU will call for restraint and
moderation but expects the Russians to resist. "The battle
is just beginning," he warned.

Next up: Geneva &Discussion8

PARIS 00001745 002 OF 003


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4. (C) Turning to preparations for the Geneva discussion
(Morel stressed that it is not a &conference8 but rather
the beginning of a conversation),Morel said that "intense
consultations are needed," and he noted the timeliness of the
UNGA gathering of senior officials in New York next week.
His goal was to have some sort of "model" for the negotiation
process/mechanism to include mundane but crucial details like
the attendees, conference room and shape of the table. When
DCM noted USG concerns about such arrangements and
representation of the enclaves, Morel replied that he
understood fully but argued that we must nevertheless "figure
out how to work with the Russians." He called EU
"concertation" with Russia crucial but an "uphill battle."
Clearly unwilling to say too much at this preliminary stage,
Morel asserted that the process for organizing the discussion
needed to be open in terms of its methodology and not seek to
answer the many questions immediately but allow for some
give-and-take. He has been working closely with Finnish FM
and OSCE president Alexander Stubb; he referred to them as
the &trio8 and stressed their commitment to territorial
integrity. Morel was also mindful of the need to balance
Russian preoccupation with the situation in the Balkans with
the "brutality" of the recent situation in Georgia. He
affirmed his first priority as coordinating among EU members
and to avoid the appearance of any "hidden agendas." As the
EU worked, however, the challenge was to maintain a certain
"rhythm" and to avoid getting bogged down. EU members, with
a wide range of views and historical experiences of dealing
with Moscow, needed to remain solid and think about the
long-term shape of relations with Russia as well as the
current crisis.


5. (C) Among elements in reftel that Morel repeated were
his close collaboration with EU Special Representative for
the Caspian Peter Semneby (a mission he saw as fully
complementary to the one he was trying to carry out) and the
six-month horizon for carrying out his work. He was firm
that at the end of six months the Georgia crisis will be over
or that situation -- and presumably his mission -- will have
evolved into something else, like a "super crisis" Or a
protracted process. As Morel agreed with our concerns about
access to the deployment zones for EU and OSCE observers, he
contended that, despite its imperfections, we have a clear
basis for moving to resolve the current crisis. His 8 1/2
years in Moscow, dealing with the USSR as well as Russia,
gave him no illusions as to Russian sincerity or the
difficulties we face. He believed, however, that the
Russians accept the deadlines and understand what concrete
steps and actions they need to take. We briefly discussed
with Morel Russian proposals for some sort of informal
meeting at the UN October 6 or 7 on Georgia. Morel asked
that we keep him apprised of our thinking so that the U.S.
and the EU might respond in a coordinated manner.

Avoid &Friendly Fire8 Comments, Please
--------------


5. (C) Morel briefly spoke about the NATO angle to the
Georgia crisis and complained that reports NATO SYG Hoop de
Scheffer had criticized the EU-brokered agreement on Georgia
as flawed was the sort of "friendly fire" none of us needs.
Although the SYG later sought to amend his remark, Morel
continued, comments like these weaken the EU's position and
only strengthen Moscow's.

A Brief Update on French Thinking
--------------


6. (C) In a separate meeting September 17, the French FM's
Balkans/Russia/Caucuses adviser Isabelle Dumont shared the

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GOF's "very preliminary" reflections on organization of the
October 15 conference, emphasizing that pragmatism and
results were again the guiding principles. Stressing that
Secretary Rice and FM Kouchner will have the opportunity to
discuss the French suggestions on the margins of UNGA, if not
before, she said that the conference could begin discreetly
with political talks among representatives of the three
international organizations on the ground (the EU, which will
have deployed its observer mission by October 1, as well as
the UN and OSCE). Member states of the organizations would
thus not be represented directly. She noted that this would
have the disadvantage of preventing direct U.S.
participation, but noted that if the U.S. participated,
Russia would also have to do so, in which case Georgia would
also have to do so, raising the "trap" of the participation
of the Abkhazian and South Ossetian representatives as well.
Following the political discussions, which would not have a
significant media component and might take place more
informally over a dinner, more formal, technical discussions
could take place at the Political Director level with all the
member-states and, she quipped, the South Ossetian
representative "drinking coffee on the side." Finally,
Dumont confirmed that the donors' conference for Georgia will
take place in Brussels.


7. (C) Comment: Morel was in Paris for this week but
indicated that he would likely spend little time in Paris for
the months ahead. Instead, it appears he will mostly be in
Brussels, where he is part of "Solana's team" concentrating
on Central Asia, when he is not traveling to New York,
Washington, Moscow, and Tbilisi. He also emphasized that he
will be spending a lot of time briefing other EU members to
keep them as &solid8 as possible.


Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Fran ce

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