THE FRENCH EU PRESIDENCY: INSTITUTIONAL GOALS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001704

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2018
TAGS: PREL EUN FR
SUBJECT: THE FRENCH EU PRESIDENCY: INSTITUTIONAL GOALS IN
THE SHADOW OF CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathleen Allegrone for reas
ons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary. French Presidency EU Advisor Fabien Raynaud
provided his views on the first months of France's EU
Presidency in an mid-August introductory meeting. Setting
external issues aside to focus on internal EU cooperation, he
said that the GOF is encouraged by progress thus far on its
main priorities: European Security and Defense Policy
(ESDP),immigration, climate/energy, and the Common
Agricultural Policy (CAP). He also stressed the need for the
EU to agree to a plan for its 2009 parliamentary elections,
since the Lisbon Treaty will not have entered into effect as
originally planned. Although the elections can proceed under
the Nice Treaty rules of 2000, it would have been better to
have had the new treaty in place. Comment: Raynaud's focus
on institutional issues may since have been overshadowed by
external issues such as the crisis in Georgia and the
energetic French-led diplomatic response that may be the most
high-profile legacy of this French EU presidency. End
comment and Summary.


2. (C) ESDP: France is focused on concrete, pragmatic steps
to build cooperation and to shift European mindsets towards
working together on defense. He noted that a more effective
ESDP will better complement NATO. Raynaud said the failed
Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty does not call into
question France's ESDP aims, which were not institutional in
nature. One sample goal would be creating a mechanism to
increase helicopter capacities through better maintenance;
Raynaud noted that some member-states have Warsaw Pact-era
assets that are not fully functional because they need more
attention than their owner states can provide. Another
example is an exchange program among military academies
modeled after the very popular EU "Erasmus" university
exchange student program. Raynaud noted that NATO has
military exchange programs, but not all EU members are NATO
members. Raynaud said some European partners might prefer to
concentrate on anti-piracy operations under the EU umbrella
because they would be politically easier in terms of the
constitutional questions raised in some states and for which
rallying public support would be easier. Note: this
conversation occurred in mid-August and does not reflect more
recent ESDP-NATO discussions on counter-piracy proposals.


3. (C) Immigration: Raynaud said the draft immigration pact
received a very positive reaction from the 27 in July. The
French Presidency's goal, therefore, is to reach agreement on
the final text by the end of September and receive
endorsement from the European Council in October.


4. (C) Climate/Energy: Raynaud said pushing through the
climate package will be much more difficult. In order to
meet the EU's so-called "20 20 20" goals (reducing carbon
dioxide emissions by 20 percent, increasing the share of
renewable energy to 20 percent, and improving energy
efficiency by 20 percent, all by 2020),each member-state
will have to accept its share of commitments, some of which
will have negative impacts on industry and ways of life. The
European Commission is developing the text that will
distribute the reduction among countries, a sensitive and
difficult project that France hopes will be concluded by the
end of the year. Raynaud said that within Europe, emissions
must continue to be viewed as zero-sum and the question of a
shared cap with division of efforts not reopened. He noted
that not just the 27 member-states but also the European
Parliament have to agree eventually to the package. The GOF
wants the EU to play a leadership role in the international
negotiations at the UNFCC COP in Poznan in 2008 as well as in
2009, which he noted was really "last minute" for a new
agreement that would need to be ratified and in force by

2012.


5. (C) So-called "carbon flight" is another potential
concern that will have to be addressed, a hypothetical
scenario in which high-emissions industries that already have
difficulty competing internationally might have to leave
Europe or be shut down. By 2011, the Commission has to
examine two options to protect those industries: free quotas
for those industries and an "adjustment mechanism at the
border." Both concepts are necessary, complementary, and
will need to be documented in text as early as 2009. Raynaud
observed that countries that don't join international
agreements to reduce their emissions would have to purchase
quotas at the border to offset the competitive advantage
their imports would have. He described such measures as "big
sticks" to convince resistant states to join international
mechanisms. He noted that climate change was a major topic
for the July EU-South Africa summit and will be topics for
the September EU-India, November EU-Russia, and December
EU-China summits. Raynaud expressed hope that the new U.S.
administration would join France in international climate

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leadership.


6. (C) Agriculture: The French EU Presidency has a double
objective on agriculture, according to Raynaud: shepherding
the short-term "health check" of the Common Agricultural
Policy as well as reaching broad agreement on the basic
principles of the CAP's next reform iteration. The health
check should be straightforward, but the second objective
will be less so. France hopes to enshrine the concept that
the next CAP will contribute to Europe's food security and to
the fight against climate change.


7. (C) Lisbon Treaty: Raynaud said that Irish Prime
Minister Cowan will come to Paris for further consultations
in September. The French Presidency needs to lock in
agreement on the method for eventual ratification by the end
of the year. For example, the questions must be clear on how
the European Parliament will be elected in 2009 and how the
Commission will be established afterwards. Raynaud clarified
that either the Treaty of Nice or the Treaty of Lisbon
provisions will be implemented, not those of any new
provisional document. Raynaud speculated that it was more
likely that the Treaty of Nice would prevail, since the Irish
are unlikely to have ratified the Treaty of Lisbon in time.
Noting that the states that have voted "no" on EU referenda
are older member-states, rather than the oft-portrayed
"unruly" new ones, Raynaud described France's role as
facilitating the three remaining ratifications, by the Irish,
Czechs and Swedes. Raynaud said the Swedish process is
underway and should conclude successfully in October or
November. The Czech Republic is a little more difficult
because its President is a euroskeptic; although his role is
limited, he nonetheless represents the ruling party.
President Sarkozy has underscored with Czech authorities that
they will have no authority in the EU Presidency (which they
assume from the French in January 2009) if they have not
ratified Lisbon. Raynaud characterized the question for the
Irish as how they can vote again someday - but likely not in
early 2009.


8. (C) Comment: Raynaud, in this introductory call as the
situation in Georgia was rapidly escalating, opted to focus
on the more technical and institutional issues that comprised
France's priorities as it took over the presidency. Although
these may have been the true focus prior to the energetic
French-led EU diplomacy on the crisis in Georgia, we have not
heard as much since, for example, about how the Irish
rejection of the Lisbon Treaty has affected the EU's
institutional evolution or its ability to maintain unity in
the face of a serious crisis. Though France's pre-determined
agenda items are no doubt still being actively worked, even
the energetic Sarkozy and FM Kouchner will have less energy
to devote to building consensus among the 27 on the more
thorny items. We will look for an opportunity to meet again
with Raynaud to find out how France intends to progress in
its original agenda given the current and inevitable
preoccupation with Russia. End comment.


Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Fran ce

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