BURKINA FASO: SIGNFICANT INCREASES IN CEREAL PRODUCTION

UNCLAS OUAGADOUGOU 001024


DEPT FOR AF/W AND AF/EPS
DAKAR ALSO FOR FAS, USAID
ACCRA ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON SENV SOCI PGOV UV
SUBJECT: BURKINA FASO: SIGNFICANT INCREASES IN CEREAL PRODUCTION
FORECAST FOR 2008

REF: A) OUAGADOUGOU 202 B) OUAGADOUGOU 439 C) OUAGADOUGOU 679


1. SUMMARY: A joint assessment conducted in October 2008 predicted
that cereal production in Burkina Faso would reach a record
4,157,714 metric tons this year. This figure represents a 34.6
percent increase from the previous year's production. Analysts
credit this success to a combination of good weather conditions,
coupled with increased donor and GOBF financial assistance to the
agricultural sector. END SUMMARY

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FORECASTED PRODUCTION
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2. A joint assessment by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO),the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought
Control in the Sahel (CILSS),the United States Agency for
International Development's (USAID) Famine Early Warning System
Network (FEWSNET) and the Government of Burkina Faso (GOBF)
conducted from October 15-22 estimated 2008 cereal production at
4,157,714 metric tons, only 1.74 percent short of its original goal
of 4,231,479 metric tons. In 2008, cereal production increased 34.6
percent from the 2007-08 agricultural season and was 25.11 percent
higher than the average cereal production for the last five years.
This increase resulted from improved production of all cereal types
including: millet: 1,198,629 metric tons (+24.1 percent); maize:
803,921 metric tons (+50.6 percent); rice: 180,267 metric tons
(+161.6 percent); fonio: 24,833 metric tons (+93.4 percent) and
sorghum: 1,950,064 metric tons (+29.4 percent).


3. Following riots and demonstrations throughout the country in
early 2008 (Ouagadougou 439),the Ministry of Agriculture,
Hydraulics and Fisheries embarked upon an ambitious program to
mitigate the effects of insufficient local production and to address
the rising price of agricultural commodities. Designed during the
Ministry's annual programming meeting on May 2-3, this program
projected overall cereal production of 4,231,479 metric tons,
including 247,484 metric tons of rice.


4. Because of the favorable 2008 harvest, prices of most cereals are
expected to fall in the coming months. In October, an International
Monetary Fund (IMF) assessment of Burkina Faso's economic
performance predicted that a good harvest would lower the country's
inflation rate from 14.1 percent in August to an annual average of
9.5 percent by the end of 2008. (Ouagadougou 202)

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DETERMINANT FACTORS IN ACHIEVING RECORD PRODUCTION
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5. The joint mission cited regular well-distributed rainfall
throughout the rainy season as a key determinant in the country's
successful cereal production during the 2008-09 season. According
to the study, this year's rainfall was satisfactory compared to the
previous year and above normal for the time period 1971 to 2000.


6. The second key reason for this year's successful harvest was the
unprecedented levels of agricultural assistance given to local
farmers by the GOBF and donor organizations. The local publication,
"Fasozine," reported that Prime Minister Tertius Zongo announced
during a June 10 press conference, that "almost 16 billion CFA
francs (USD 32 million) would be mobilized by the GOBF to provide
cereal producers with technical support, improved seeds,
fertilizers, and pesticides." Zongo added that "this assistance when
combined with a subsidy of 6.5 billion CFA francs (13 million US
dollars) to cotton producers brought the GOBF's total financial
assistance to the agricultural sector to 22.5 billion CFA francs
(USD 45 million) during the 2008-09 season."

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Despite a Good Harvest Shortfalls Are Still Expected
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7. Despite an excellent cereal harvest, significant rice shortfalls
are still expected. The initial GOBF Food Security and Nutritional
Emergency Plan for the 2008-09 agricultural season had originally
predicted that it would increase local rice production to cover 56
percent of the nation's needs. Although the projected rice
production of 180,267 metric tons represents significant growth, the
country will still fall short of its goal of 247,484 metric tons
(-27.16 percent).


8. Theoretically, this year's estimated harvest should meet the
country's overall cereal demand; however, based upon an annual
standard consumption level of 190 kilograms of cereal per person,
the study estimated a cereals shortfall of 2,793,778 metric tons.
Despite good harvests, vulnerable households in departments in
several regions continue to experience food difficulties due to high
cereal prices. According to the study, this discrepancy exists
because of regional disparities, particularly in the Sahel and
Northern regions. During 2008, two factors affected food security
in these areas; insufficient rainfall and an influx of Tuareg
refugees (Ouagadougou 679) fleeing conflicts in neighboring Mali and
Niger.


9. In addition, among the country's 12 rainfall monitoring stations,
eight registered a surplus compared to rainfall experienced in
1971-2000 and 2007. Despite higher levels of precipitation, not all
regions received sufficient amounts of rainfall; and some areas
including Dori, Ouahigouya, Dedougou, and Po received less than in

2007. During the first ten days of September, rainfall declined to
almost zero in the Sahel region. Other areas, including the
Northern, and Center-West regions of the country, suffered from a
lack of rainfall during the critical end-of-season growth phase.
The joint mission report voiced concern that this could "adversely
impact crop yields" in these areas.


10. During the October 10 midterm review of the Poverty Reduction
Strategy Paper (PRSP),Seydou Ouedraogo, a representative from
Burkina Faso's Farmers Confederation (CPF),argued that government
assistance would have been more effective if it had been better
planned. Ouedraogo pointed out that in several areas, farmers
received their improved seeds after the optimal sowing date and
fertilizer never reached some localities due to the poor condition
of the roads during the rainy season. He insisted that in the
future, the GOBF should start its assistance programs earlier and
manage the process more efficiently if it truly wants to boost the
nation's agricultural production.

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MISSION REMCOMMENDATIONS
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11. After announcing the results of its study, the Joint Mission
made recommendations to leverage Burkina Faso's current cereal
production record and contribute to both short and long-term food
security. Short-term recommendations included: i) use water
collected in various dams to begin dry season cultivation in the
Sahel and Northern regions in the first ten-days of November; ii)
closely monitor vulnerable groups in the four regions which are
likely to be in deficit: Central-Western, Central-Northern, Sahel
and North; iii) facilitate the free movement of goods and people
within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to
help absorb surplus production by non-surplus countries; and iv)
strengthen regional agricultural processing capacities.


12. In the long run, the mission recommended: i) develop export
programs that could provide substantial revenues to local producers
while simultaneously contributing to international prices; ii)
facilitate trade within the country to redistribute surpluses from
high production areas to traditionally deficit areas or areas
occasionally affected by bad weather conditions; and iii) enhance
the storage capacities of producers, traders, farmers' organizations
and regional and national governments.


13. COMMENT: In the four regions of the country likely to be in
cereal deficit, the U.S. Government has been implementing
agricultural and food security programs through Partner Volunteer
Organizations (PVO) AFRICARE and Catholic Relief Services (CRS).
AFRICARE implements its activities in the Northern region whereas
CRS intervenes in the Central-Northern. These activities are
supported by the United States Agency for International
Development's (USAID) Food for Peace Program.

JACKSON