Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08OTTAWA1507
2008-12-02 20:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ottawa
Cable title:  

OTTAWA'S UNEXPECTED POLITICAL TURMOIL; NEW

Tags:  PGOV PREL AF CA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHOT #1507/01 3372001
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 022001Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8794
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 001507 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF CA
SUBJECT: OTTAWA'S UNEXPECTED POLITICAL TURMOIL; NEW
ELECTION, ANYONE?

REF: A. OTTAWA 1504

B. OTTAWA 1502

C. OTTAWA 1495

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 001507

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF CA
SUBJECT: OTTAWA'S UNEXPECTED POLITICAL TURMOIL; NEW
ELECTION, ANYONE?

REF: A. OTTAWA 1504

B. OTTAWA 1502

C. OTTAWA 1495

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary and comment. Prime Minister Stephen Harper
faces a new and rather unexpected political challenge in the
wake of the Conservatives' miscalculations in the Economic
and Fiscal Statement (reftels). The Liberals and New
Democratic Party on December 1 formalized an agreement to try
to form an almost unprecedented coalition government, with
the additional support of the Bloc Quebecois (whose votes
would be essential to survive confidence votes). The
Governor General has cut short a European tour to deal with
the "crisis," which may require her to decide whether to
accept a request from the Prime Minister either to prorogue
Parliament or to set a new federal election. She also has
the theoretical choice of entrusting the government without a
new election to the would-be opposition coalition. Most of
this drama is very Ottawa-specific; there is little public
interest in the ins-and-outs of the economic statement or
other Parliamentary debates, and much opposition to the idea
of another election so soon, as well as popular outrage that
politicians are playing political games instead of dealing
constructively with the global economic crisis as it affects
Canadians. It appears markedly less likely even than 24
hours ago that PM Harper could continue to coast in power.
His best bet at this point is probably to call for a new
election (in the hope that the campaign would effectively
destroy the would-be coalition),and to argue strenuously to
the Governor General that she does not indeed have the
Constitutional authority to let a coalition of opposition
parties form a government absent a new election. End summary
and comment.

Counter-attack
--------------


2. (SBU) In an unprecedented move that has seemingly
shifted the Canadian political landscape, leader of the
Official Opposition Liberal Party Stephane Dion and New
Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jack Layton late afternoon on
December 1 signed an "Accord on a Cooperative Government to
Address the Present Economic Crisis," under which they
proposed to form a coalition government to replace the

Conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Under its terms, Dion would be Prime Minister and would have
a Liberal Finance Minister as well as 17 other Cabinet
positions, while the NDP would receive six ministerial slots
and six parliamentary secretaries. The two party caucuses
would remain distinct but would have the option of meeting
jointly. They pledged to work together on a "no surprises"
basis and to adhere to the accord until June 30, 2011. Bloc
Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe joined them in also signing a
"Policy Accord to Address the Present Economic Crisis"
focused on "fiscal responsibility" but with an economic
stimulus package as "the top priority of the new Government."
(Most details of the package remain unclear, but estimates
of its cost are about C$30 billion.) The Bloc would not join
the coalition, but agreed to support it on all matters of
confidence until June 30, 2010. Green Party leader Elizabeth
May on December 2 expressed her support for the coalition
proposal.


3. (SBU) Dion and Layton subsequently wrote separately to
Governor General Michaelle Jean to inform her that PM Harper
clearly no longer had the confidence of the House of Commons
clearly no longer had the confidence of the House of Commons
and that their proposed coalition was prepared to take the
reins of government. Jean on December 2 announced that she
would cut short her official visit to Europe and return to
Ottawa on December 3 for consultations with PM Harper.


4. (C) The NDP has apparently swallowed some bitter pills
in order to forge what some Conservatives have called an
"unholy alliance." Notably, the March 2008 Parliamentary
motion to extend the Canadian Forces' mandate in Kandahar
until 2011 remains intact; the would-be coalition will not
seek to revisit this decision, despite the NDP's previous
strong opposition. Additionally, the NDP agreed to allow the
Conservatives' corporate tax cuts -- which the NDP had
strenuously opposed -- to remain in place. The Liberals
apparently have promised that at least two of the NDP Cabinet
positions would be "substantive," with Layton reportedly
angling for the Industry portfolio.


5. (C) For their part, the Liberals somewhat surprisingly
rallied around lame duck leader Dion, who would be the Prime
Minister in a coalition government, but only until the May 2,
2009 Liberal Party vote on a new leader. The three presumed
leadership candidates -- Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae, and
Dominic LeBlanc -- appeared together on December 1 to
announce their support for Dion as an interim Prime Minister,
despite Igantieff's reported earlier skepticism about the
coalition proposal and the general antipathy of all three
against Dion.

Next Conservative Steps
--------------


6. (C) In House of Commons' Question Periods and in the
media, PM Harper and key Conservative attack dogs -- Public
Safety Minister Peter Van Loan, Heritage Minister James
Moore, and Ottawa MP Pierre Poilievre -- have savaged the
idea of a coalition taking power as "undemocratic" and a
"power grab" by a party that "had its worst showing since
Confederation" (the Liberals),a "socialist" party (NDP),and
a "separatist" party (Bloc). Some have even used the term
"coup d'etat." They have largely skirted questions about
whether PM Harper would recommend that the Governor General
prorogue Parliament (re-start the Parliamentary session, with
a new Throne Speech),presumably in late January, would call
for a new election, or would (most improbably) turn over
power to the coalition as soon as it loses a confidence vote.
(A Liberal motion expressing a loss of confidence due to the
failure of the government's November 27 Economic and Fiscal
Statement to include an economic stimulus package remains on
the Commons' agenda for December 8.) Increasingly, however,
Conservative representatives appear to be arguing that the
would-be coalition should directly present itself as such to
Canadian voters. As PM Harper pointedly insisted in Question
Hour on December 2, "here in Canada, if you want to be Prime
Minister, you get your mandate from the Canadian people, not
the sovereigntists in Quebec."


7. (C) At this point, a new election is probably the
Conservatives' best bet, even though the outcome might well
look very much like the results of the October 14 election;
it is difficult at this point to imagine any of the parties
picking up any popularity points so soon after the last
election. The Conservatives remain in the best
organizational and financial shape to undertake an election,
and have already re-opened their now-legendary "war room" and
reportedly have also placed a deposit on a campaign plane and
buses. Key obstacles, however, would include not only
voters' election-overload and apathy, but real irritation at
the Conservatives for having unnecessarily provoked a new
political crisis. But the Conservatives may calculate that
the competition of a campaign would strain, perhaps fatally,
the would-be coalition. Both the Liberals and NDP would
presumably want to maintain or if possible increase their
seats in the House, and so would again field candidates in
all ridings, even competing against each other, as usual.
Could they successfully pitch the coalition plan to skeptical
voters? Unlikely.


8. (C) The Conservatives have vowed to use all "legal"
means to stop the coalition plan. The party on December 2
launched a series of ads, one of whose slogans is "This is
Canada...power must be earned, not taken." They are also
organizing public rallies to galvanize public opposition to
the concept of a coalition, reminding voters that the
Liberals during the last campaign pledged that they would
never enter into a coalition with the NDP.


9. (C) Prorogation remains a political possibility, but a
declining one, as it seems less and less likely that a
"cooling off" period would have any real chance of success.
With the opposition parties seemingly emboldened by
perceptions of Conservative mis-steps and leadership
weaknesses, it would be improbable that they would be more
acquiescent to Conservative legislation and proposals in six
weeks than they are now.


10. (C) Conceivably, PM Harper could also quickly table
some additional steps to address Canada's economic problems
as a sop to the coalition's arguments, but he still seems
unwilling to do so before the presentation of the budget in
late January. He could also re-assign Finance Minister Jim
Flaherty -- who presented the Economic Statement in the
Commons and who had already been a lightning rod of criticism
in Ontario -- and/or accept the resignation of new chief of
staff Guy Giorno. But neither step would gain him any real
traction with the public or the opposition, and would likely
instead appear as additional signs of strategic weakness.
Meanwhile, grumblings against Harper's leadership style
within the Conservative camp grow, suggesting that his own
days as leader could be numbered -- although as yet no

significant alternative has emerged.

Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada

WILKINS