Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08OTTAWA1504
2008-12-01 22:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ottawa
Cable title:  

MISSION CANADA ASSESS CURRENT POLITICAL TURMOIL

Tags:  PGOV CA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3385
PP RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #1504/01 3362206
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 012206Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8790
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001504 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: MISSION CANADA ASSESS CURRENT POLITICAL TURMOIL

REF: OTTAWA 1495

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001504

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: MISSION CANADA ASSESS CURRENT POLITICAL TURMOIL

REF: OTTAWA 1495

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary. Mission Canada reporting officers agreed on
December 1 that Prime Minister Harper appears to have badly
miscalculated by introducing a divisive political issue (the
elimination of public financing for political parties) in the
fall economic statement (reftel),when the public expected
him to focus on helping the economy. However, there is no
public desire for a new federal election. Although the
government likely will survive for the time being, PM Harper
is in a weakened position, as his reversal on the financing
issue as well as on the short-lived ban on strikes by public
servants demonstrated. End summary.


2. (C) In a bimonthly DVC among Mission Canada reporting
officers (and WHA/CAN) on December 1, PolMinCouns described
the current political turmoil in the wake of the
controversial fall economic statement on November 25, notably
an unexpected cut off of public financing for political
parties and a ban on strikes by public servants -- both of
which the government scrambled over the weekend to rescind.
Pundits and politicians alike have been surprised at the
vehemence of the opposition's response, especially its
ongoing efforts to sort out how to form an alternative
coalition government to replace the Conservatives. While
some believe that PM Harper made a serious tactical
miscalculation that could herald the beginning of the end of
his political career, others speculate that the "crisis" may
be a deliberate Harper plan to demonstrate opposition
ineptitude and impotence. Next political possibilities
include:
-- the government survives upcoming confidence votes during
the week of December 8;
-- the government prorogues Parliament and returns in
January with a new, more conciliatory Throne Speech and a
budget that includes a heftier stimulus package;
-- the government asks the Governor General to call a new
election, which she does; and,
-- the government asks the Governor General to call a new
election, which she declines to do and instead asks a
coalition of the Liberals and New Democratic Party to form a
government.
PolMinCouns asked reporting officers how these Ottawa-centric
events were playing out in their consular districts, what the

reaction to the ongoing turmoil was, whether there is any
appetite for a new election, and who will end up receiving
the blame for the current controversy.

Calgary
--------------


3. (C) The political crisis was front page news in Alberta.
With the tight Conservative hold on "the West," a new
election would not result in any significant changes there,
although the Conservatives might pick up a seat in the
Northwest Territories. There has been no hue and cry from
the core Conservative constituency to make a push to
eliminate public funding for political parties, leaving many
in confusion about why the Prime Minister had picked this
particular fight.

Winnipeg
--------------


4. (C) Canada's sensible "midwesterners" are following
Ottawa events with concern and even consternation. The clear
message from the recent Conservative policy convention in
Winnipeg -- including from PM Harper himself -- was that this
was not the time to focus on ideology, but rather on
pragmatic solutions to the current economic crisis. It makes
no sense that the Conservatives themselves, therefore, picked
an arbitrary fight over political financing in the economic
statement, especially since there was no call among the
rank-and-file Conservatives to make this a key issue.

Halifax
QHalifax
--------------


5. (C) Atlantic Canada is still hoping that cooler heads
will prevail and that the government will focus on the
economy rather than political gamesmanship. Some of
Halifax's Liberal contacts are hoping that lame-duck Liberal
leader Stephane Dion would step down sooner rather than
later. Many residents of Atlantic Canada are puzzled by PM
Harper's policy measures, as the Conservatives could have
been viewed as an economic savior by increasing spending in
the province. According to Rookie MP Siobhan Coady, an
opposition coalition could be good for Newfoundland-Labrador
by giving it representation in Cabinet. But other Atlantic

OTTAWA 00001504 002 OF 002


Canada citizens fear that an opposition coalition dependent
on Bloc Quebecois support could hurt them, if Quebec favored
a "Made in Quebec" energy policy. New Brunswick MP and
cabinet Minister Greg Thompson has accused the Liberals of
engaging in a power grab.

Montreal
--------------


6. (C) Some Montreal commentators believe the situation could
benefit Quebec Liberal Party leader Jean Charest in the
December 8 Quebec provincial election by showing that
minority governments do not work. Other analysts believe the
crisis in Ottawa, and the potential Bloc Quebecois'
"king-maker" role, could instead help the separatist Parti
Quebecois. The ongoing drama in Ottawa remains front page
news in Montreal.

Quebec City
--------------


7. (C) Quebec citizens are tired of elections and so voters
would likely punish the Conservatives if there were a new
federal election any time soon. However, a new federal
election would also present the Bloc with a favorable
campaign platform, which would focus on cushioning the impact
of the U.S. economic crisis, support for the manufacturing
and forestry sectors, and possibly construction of a high
speed train from Quebec City to Toronto/Windsor. Quebec City
mass media is more focused on the provincial elections than
on the far-away events in Ottawa.

Vancouver
--------------


8. (C) There is a perception in Vancouver that the opposition
parties, who failed to perform well in the last election, are
now trying to seize power through the back door. British
Columbia Premier Gordon Campbell has criticized PM Harper's
lack of a stimulus package. He is also concerned that the
government seemed more focused on a possible bailout for the
automobile sector (which does not help Vancouver) without
apparently considering help for the forestry sector (which is
important for BC).

Toronto
--------------


9. (C) Ontario voters are most concerned by the economy,
and not as focused on politics. That being said, the
political crisis has generated heavy media coverage in the
province. Many voters would like to see greater assistance
to the automobile sector, and a bigger economic stimulus
package. The Premier of Ontario has proposed cutting
provincial government spending.

Straw Poll: Harper stays
--------------

10 (C) Following an informal straw poll among Mission Canada
reporting officers, there was almost a total consensus that
the Harper government will survive -- for the time being, at
least -- albeit likely weakened. There is no clear
Conservative Party successor to Harper, which could make for
a volatile leadership race in the event that a Conservative
challenger to Harper were to emerge. By "ruling by fear,"
Harper has not engendered the level of warmth and friendship
that former Prime Ministers Mulroney and Chretien enjoyed
with their party caucuses.

Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada

WILKINS