ELECTION 2008: VISITS TO THE "WAR ROOMS"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 001293

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: ELECTION 2008: VISITS TO THE "WAR ROOMS"

REF: A. TORONTO 288

B. OTTAWA 1258

C. OTTAWA 1216

D. OTTAWA 632

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. The contrast between the state-of-the-art
Conservative Party campaign "war room" and its rather
ramshackle Liberal Party equivalent helps to explain why
Conservatives are at least 11 percentage points in the polls
about whom electors would vote for if the federal election
were held today. Incumbency helps, too, with the Liberals
having had to scramble more to set up a campaign once the
Conservatives decided on September 7 to call for the new
election on October 14. Senior officials from each campaign
continue to predict victory, but the Conservatives continue
to have the advantage. Liberals have profited slightly from
bumps to the Conservatives such as the U.S. financial
meltdown and apparent plagiarism by Stephen Harper's staff in
2003, but not enough to make much difference. While the
October 1 and 2 leaders' debates (septel) are potential
opportunities for candidates to stumble, few expect many
voters to change their minds as a result. End Summary.

Liberals pinch pennies...
--------------


2. (C) National campaign officials from the opposition
Liberal Party and the ruling Conservative Party on September
30 and October 1 welcomed PolMinCouns to their respective
campaign headquarters -- the "war rooms." (Ref d reported on
a pre-election visit to the Conservatives' "fear factory;"
the Liberals at that time had not yet set up a campaign
space). The Liberals are holed up in a half dozen rooms in
existing party office space in a downtown high-rise, with 2-4
workers operating out of cubicles that normally would house
one person. Electric fans somewhat mitigate the heat
generated by the extra computers and other electrical
equipment in use, but the temperatures remain in the lower
80s. About 40 people -- about half volunteers and half paid
staff -- run the campaign at the national level, with some
additional federal Liberal party officials also working in
each province and territory, according to national director
Greg Fergus (who will shortly participate in a U.S.
International Visitor Program on the U.S. elections).


3. (C) About four people -- under logistics chief Doug
Ferguson, whose Liberal campaign experiences go back to the
early 1980s -- handle all the travel not only for Liberal
Party leader Stephane Dion but also for deputy leader Michael
Ignatieff and Foreign Affairs Critic Bob Rae when they are
not backing up the leader. Ferguson admitted the near-fiasco
involved in renting an aircraft from Air Innuit that turned
out to be an embarrassing gas guzzler for this "Green Shift"
campaign. He explained that Air Canada no longer kept many
surplus aircraft in its fleet and the Conservatives were able
to snap up the one available extra plane first, given that
they, unusually, brought down their own government and set
the date for the election. Rental from U.S. airlines was
politically impossible, he claimed. On at least one occasion
already, the campaign has been stranded due to the plane's
maintenance problems.


4. (C) A small white board covered with notations in magic
marker demonstrated the traveling strategy for the duration
of the campaign. Fergus confirmed the importance of making
the campaign truly national, but admitted that almost all the
campaign stops in western and central Canada -- where the
Liberals have few or no seats -- were early on. The closest
Dion will go to the three northern territories -- with only
QDion will go to the three northern territories -- with only
three seats, two of them Liberal -- will be to Churchill in
northern Manitoba. Now in these final two weeks of the
campaign, Dion will almost exclusively concentrate on Quebec
and Ontario, planning on overnighting in Toronto for most of
the last week but making day-time appearances in rural and
suburban Ontario. Dion will vote in Montreal on October 14.
On the road, the leader travels in an ordinary bus,
accompanied by the gaggle of press and a small protective
detail from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.


5. (C) Fergus and Director for Election Readiness Heather
Chiasson admitted that the Liberals have had far fewer
resources at their disposal than the Conservatives,
explaining that the small town pattern of individual
contributors that the Conservatives had inherited from their
predecessor parties had positioned them well for
Liberal-instituted limitations on campaign contributions
earlier this decade. They admitted that the Liberals had
gotten too accustomed to large corporate contributions that
were no longer permissible, and had not developed much of a
network of small contributors, despite recent attempts.


OTTAWA 00001293 002 OF 003



6. (C) One key unit in the campaign office has a sign on
its interior window described it as the "Ministry of Truth
aka The Dirt Factory." One of its biggest scoops so far was
the discovery that in 2003 Stephen Harper, then in
opposition, gave a speech in support of the war in Iraq that
cribbed heavily from a speech that Australian then-Prime
Minister John Howard had given two days earlier. Rae used
contrasting broadcasts of these speeches in a highly
publicized speech in Toronto on September 30, insisting
"Can't Believe Steve" and emphasizing the phrase "Stephen
Harper -- not up to the job." Dion publicly called Harper a
plagiarist. (Subsequently, a Conservative speechwriter took
full responsibility for the cribbing and resigned.)


7. (C) Despite organizational hiccups, financial
limitations, added competition for votes from the Green
Party, and inherent challenges of being the opposition party
in a multi-party race, Fergus predicted a "victory" for the
Liberals on October 14, but, when pressed, admitted that, at
best, the Liberals would win by only a "small minority." He
expressed special concern that Liberal support in the second
generation New Canadian immigrant families was waning, which
could hurt the party even in traditional strongholds like
Toronto and Montreal.

...while the Conservatives ooze confidence
--------------


8. (C) The state-of-the-art Conservative war room in a
large building in suburban Ottawa, in contrast, was a model
of discipline, planning, and comfort in action. About 130
staffers and volunteers (with another 20 on the road doing
advance work) occupy well-spaced work stations, grouped into
units like "target ridings" (for key votes),"candidate
support," "research," and "Quebec." The sophisticated media
center has been in daily use, although reporters quickly
rebelled against the original plan for 6 a.m. briefings,
according to staffers. An upscale caterer provides all
meals, and there is shuttle service to and from downtown
every half hour.


9. (C) Conservative National Campaign Director Doug Finley
(husband of MP and Minister for Civilization and Immigration
Diane Finley) commented that the campaign had gone about as
smoothly as imaginable, but noted that "we've been planning
this for more than two years." Even so, he now predicts that
the Conservatives will win at most 145 seats, up from the 127
seats in the 39th Parliament, but still short of the 155
members needed to form a majority in the 308 seat House of
Commons. He claimed that it had become "almost impossible"
for any party to win a majority given that "core
constituencies" would give each of the four main parties
between 30-40 seats, leaving them (and the Greens) to compete
for the remaining 168 or so seats. The key focus for the
remainder of the Conservative campaign will be on Ontario,
Quebec, and British Columbia as well as, to a lesser degree,
Newfoundland, where Premier Danny Williams has been waging an
"Anything but Conservative" counter-campaign. Finley
estimated that support among female voters -- a key new
target audience for the Conservatives -- had risen about 5
pct, but said that no one has been able accurately to gauge
levels of support, if any, among second generation
immigrants, because pollsters had found it virtually
impossible to single them out. He lamented the unusual
"volatility" among Quebec voters; while the Conservatives had
gotten off to a great start there, the Bloc Quebecois had
bounced back up in recent days, with the New Democratic Party
(NDP) faring surprisingly well in many ridings as well.
Q(NDP) faring surprisingly well in many ridings as well.


10. (C) Finley observed that, while the media would hype
the October 1 and 2 leaders' debates, probably only a "couple
of hundred thousands" of viewers would tune in, so, as in the
U.S. presidential debates, the post-debate spin by the
various parties would likely shape attitudes more than the
leaders' actual performances. He admitted that the new
economic concerns in the wake of the U.S. financial problems
had helped the Liberals, due to collective memories of a
strong Canadian economy in the 1990s under Liberal Prime
Ministers Paul Martin and Jean Chretien, but he predicted
that an eventual rescue package by the U.S. Congress would
rebound to the benefit of the Conservatives by placating the
"fear factor." He pooh-poohed any impact from the 2003
plagiarism charges, claiming that the story was "over within
hours" once the Conservatives figured out who was actually
responsible and put him forward to explain his error.


11. (C) The Conservatives will launch a new batch of
campaign ads (made in-house) on October 2, according to
Finley, following up on their earlier successful series of
brief interviews featuring the "warmer and fuzzier Stephen
Harper." He admitted that, to sway undecided voters, Harper
still needed better to "show compassion" both in the debates
and through these new ads, in order to counteract lingering

OTTAWA 00001293 003 OF 003


impressions of him as impersonal and/or abrasive.


Conservatives still lead the pack
--------------


12. (U) Most polls continue to put the Conservatives 10 -
12 points ahead of the Liberals, usually with about 36 - 37
pct of respondents saying they would vote for that party if
the election took place today. The CPAC/Nanos poll -- which
predicted the 2006 election results almost exactly -- on
October 1 indicated that 35 pct of respondents also picked
Harper as the best Prime Minister among the candidates, with
Dion in third place (at 15 pct),behind even NDP leader Jack
Layton (at 18 pct). Harper has a similarly strong lead on
questions of trustworthiness, competence, and vision, with
Dion only on October 1 finally pulling ahead slightly of
Layton for second place.

Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada

WILKINS