CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001216

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
U.S.

REF: A. OTTAWA 1177

B. OTTAWA 1171

C. OTTAWA 632

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary. The most likely outcome of the October 14
Canadian federal election is another Conservative victory,
with the real question being whether Prime Minister Harper's
party wins only a stronger minority or an actual majority.
Neither result would likely cause any significant shift of
course of any concern to the U.S., with Canada sure to remain
a strong partner in NATO, NORAD, the G-8, and other
multilateral fora, as well as a fellow proponent of democracy
and better governance worldwide. Even in the unlikely event
of a Liberal upset, Canada's bilateral and global interests
will continue to dictate strong cooperation and coordination
with the U.S. End Summary.


2. (C) The 2008 Canadian federal election campaign will
kick off in earnest on September 22, the deadline for the
nomination of official candidates for each "riding"
(district) nationwide. Conservative Prime Minister Stephen
Harper, Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion, New Democratic
Party leader Jack Layton, Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles
Ducette, and Green Party leader Elizabeth May are already
hard at work on the stumps, with polls showing sometimes
quite divergent results. The polls are apt to go up and down
until the actual election on October 14, particularly in the
wake of worrisome economic news from the U.S. as well as the
outcomes of the French language debate among party leaders on
October 1 and English language debate on October 2.


3. (C) At this point, all signs suggest that the
Conservatives will return to power to form the next
government, and the serious betting is principally on how
many additional seats the Conservatives may pick up (they
held 127 out of 308 in the previous House). Best bets for
the Conservatives to pick up additional seats are in rural
Quebec, rural and suburban Ontario, and British Columbia.
While PM Harper has publicly expressed doubt at the
Conservatives' chances of winning an actual majority, this
now seems genuinely within the realm of possibility, if not
yet actual likelihood. The growing appeal of the Green Party
(whose leader will, for the first time, be included in the
debates) and surprising nationwide appeal of NDP leader
Layton (scoring well above Dion in most polls as a potential
Prime Minister) will probably add to the Liberals'
organizational and leadership woes, while the Bloc's inept
performance so far likely will help the Conservatives in
Quebec. The Conservatives likely will continue to fare
poorly in Toronto and Montreal, but could well break through
urban antipathy to them by picking up a seat (or more) in
Vancouver.


4. (C) Clearly, we can expect the elections overall to be
free and fair, despite some continued mudslinging about
alleged spending abuses (the still unresolved "in and out
scandal" from the 2006 Conservative campaign). In the
absence of a genuine driving issue that in normal times would
have forced the government to fall (voters are not buying PM
Harper's "Parliament has become dysfunctional" rationale for
bringing down his own government),voter turnout will likely
be below the range in the previous three elections of between
60-64 pct of registered voters (already well below historical
norms of over 70 pct turnouts). The economy and the
environment are important issues for many voters, but they
have not sparked true voter passion. Nor have the parties
Qhave not sparked true voter passion. Nor have the parties
been able successfully to delineate clear policy distinctions
among them on these issues; most observers would agree that
the Liberals' "Green Shift" aka "carbon tax" policy has
failed entirely to resonate with the public, few of whom can
grasp just what Dion is talking about.


5. (C) Essentially, the race will boil down to public
perceptions of leadership abilities, which is exactly the
issue the Conservatives have wished to run on all along (ref
c). The Conservatives have recently worked hard to present a
warmer and fuzzier Stephen Harper to the public to enhance
his appeal, especially to female voters, with some success.
Nationwide, he already outpolls by far the leaders of all
other parties. As long as he does not stumble -- which
Harper never does -- and barring some unexpected catastrophe,
the election is the Conservatives' to win. Even the economic
news from across the border and fears of implications for
Canada's economy probably help the Conservatives more than
the Liberals, who have not inspired any confidence that they
would be better able to steer the economy more safely in
scary times.


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6. (C) If the Conservatives return to power again in
minority status, the government is essentially back to square
one, with not much new left on its legislative agenda.
Canada's next government will remain our firm partner in NATO
-- with combat troops in Afghanistan, at least until 2011 --
as well as in NORAD, the G-8, the OAS, and other multilateral
organizations, as well as a generous donor in Afghanistan,
Haiti, Sudan, Iraq, and other countries of concern to the
U.S. Canada will continue to enhance its military
capabilities, including projection of power throughout the
Arctic, but likely will be more gun-shy about new
peace-making (versus peacekeeping) roles -- even in the NATO
or UN context -- post-2011. Canada will also continue to
work with us and other key allies to promote democracy, human
rights, and better governance worldwide.


7. (C) However, a new minority government would be no more
stable than the Conservatives have been over the past two
years, and so would by necessity continuously be looking over
its shoulders at the opposition parties in the Commons in
fear of losing a confidence vote. If the Liberals discard
the unpopular Dion after a poor showing in the 2008 election,
a new Liberal Party leader might actually be inclined to
topple the new government sooner rather than later, finances
permitting. There would be virtually no chance of a new
Conservative minority government surviving the fixed four
year term, which this government arguably could have done,
until October 2009.


8. (C) If the Conservatives win an actual majority, nothing
suggests that they would in any significant way change course
on any issue of concern to the U.S. They still have some
minor law-and-order bills to pass, plus an update of the 2001
Anti-terrorism legislation but have pretty much accomplished
most of what they wanted. They might be more inclined to
push through the copyright legislation that the U.S. has long
sought, but this is apparently not a big priority for the
Conservatives. The one legislative area where the
Conservatives have failed in their minority status to live up
to their earlier campaign promises is on Senate reform, which
is of some interest to their western constituents but not
many others (and faces opposition in much of Quebec),while
the Liberal-controlled Senate is unlikely to go down without
a fight. A majority might also embolden the Conservatives to
take a more assertive tone on the Arctic, which could lead to
some increase in bilateral tension. However, on the whole,
Canadian interests and the expense of backing up a more
assertive posture seem likely to keep Canadian Arctic policy
initiatives roughly in line with our own interests, our
disagreement over the status of the Northwest Passage
notwithstanding.


9. (C) Politics being politics, a Liberal upset victory is
not impossible, albeit unlikely. Canada under a Prime
Minister Dion might invest more in environmental protection
and domestic social spending, while nonetheless maintaining
its bilateral and multilateral partnerships. The Liberals,
having supported the March 2008 Commons' motion endorsing the
role of the Canadian Forces in Kandahar through 2011, would
in particular be unlikely to back out of this commitment once
in power, while perhaps holding even more firmly to a fixed
departure date than the Conservatives. A Liberal government
might spread international assistance more broadly rather
Qmight spread international assistance more broadly rather
than the Conservatives' more targeted approach, but would
also still champion multilateral approaches as well as the
primacy of democracy and human rights.


10. (C) Overall, Canadian bilateral and global interests
under any foreseeable new government will continue to dictate
strong cooperation and coordination with the U.S. We can
watch this election without anxiety.

Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada

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