Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08OTTAWA1024
2008-07-31 17:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Ottawa
Cable title:  

CANADIAN AIR FORCE EMBRACES, RUSHES TRANSFORMATION

Tags:  PREL MARR NATO CA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 311736Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8268
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USNORTHCOM PRIORITY
RUEAHQA/HQ USAF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0918
RULWAAA/USSTRATCOM OFFUTT AFB NE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001024 

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR NATO CA
SUBJECT: CANADIAN AIR FORCE EMBRACES, RUSHES TRANSFORMATION

REF: A. OTTAWA 649

B. OTTAWA 373

C. OTTAWA 001

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001024

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR NATO CA
SUBJECT: CANADIAN AIR FORCE EMBRACES, RUSHES TRANSFORMATION

REF: A. OTTAWA 649

B. OTTAWA 373

C. OTTAWA 001

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard


1. (C//NF) Summary: The International Security Assistance
Force's (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan is a "transformation
driver" that has obliged the Canadian Air Force (CAF) to
develop a new Air Expeditionary Wing. The current deployment
of about 350 airmen to the Afghan theater will grow to about
700 as the CAF fields six heavy-lift helicopters as well as
additional unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). However, the CAF
will soon face a shortage of mid-level and senior officers,
and is planning on a major recruiting and training surge over
the next several years in order to support its growing fleet
of fixed and rotary-wing aircraft. The CAF's recent
progress, and its plans for the future, appear to be
sustainable under the current minority Conservative
government, which has made military modernization a key
policy priority, but the Liberal Party might reverse course
if it were to win office in the next federal election. End
summary.

Afghanistan: A "Transformation Driver"
--------------


2. (C//NF) Chief of the Air Staff Lieutenant General Angus
Watt on July 18 reviewed progress after three years of
transformation of the Canadian Air Force (CAF) at an
off-the-record gathering of a handful of defense experts in
Ottawa. LtGen. Watt characterized the ISAF mission in
Afghanistan as a principal "transformation driver" that had
prompted the government more generously to fund and expedite
the transformation of the entire military into a more capable
and nimble expeditionary force. LtGen. Watt commented that
one of the CAF's main contributions to the overall
transformation effort will be the creation in 2009 of the new
Number 2 Air Expeditionary Wing (2 AEW),based in Bagotville,
Quebec, which will increase the number of air wings under
Canada's sole air division to 14. The AEW will be able to
deploy an "air-head" from which it can sustain overseas air
operations by 2012, according to LtGen. Watt.


3. (C//NF) In the Afghanistan theater, LtGen. Watt noted,
the CAF has maintained a relatively constant deployment of

about 350 airmen since 2005, including CAF logistical and
unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and interim helicopter support
as well as combat engineers overseeing the "traditionally
army" road-building piece of the CF's counterinsurgency
(COIN) mission in Kandahar. LtGen. Watt predicted that this
figure will grow to about 700 by February 2009, as the CAF
fields six newly acquired Chinook helicopters and more
capable replacement UAVs in Kandahar.

Demographic Shift
--------------


4. (C//NF) Turning to human resource challenges, LtGen. Watt
expressed concern about the 2012-2016 period, when the CAF
will face a "huge shortage" of experienced mid-level and
senior airmen. During this period, the 12,500 member CAF
will have a ratio of two inexperienced airmen per experienced
airman, which is the opposite of the one to two ratio needed
to ensure the safety and effectiveness of air operations, he
noted. In particular, the CAF will face real challenges due
to attrition in the pilot ranks, with the ongoing annual
Qto attrition in the pilot ranks, with the ongoing annual
intake of 80 new pilot trainees unable to keep up with the
estimated 110 retirements and resignations each year. LtGen.
Watt added that he hoped to win approval for a surge of up to
140 pilot training slots per year by 2010 to deal with the
expected near-term hike in baby-boomer retirements. In the
meantime, LtGen. Watt said that he had ordered that
re-branded navigators (now Air Combat Systems Officers -
ACSOs) fly the next generation of UAVs, instead of pilots.

Transformative Procurements
--------------


5. (C/NF) LtGen. Watt underscored the progress that the CAF
had already made on "transformative" procurements, including
four new C-17 strategic lift aircraft during the 2006 - 08

OTTAWA 00001024 002 OF 002


time-frame; the "excellent aircraft" were now operating at
over 85 percent availability. Canada had also procured six
CH-47 Chinook helicopters for deployment to Kandahar,
Afghanistan, and the multi-year delivery of 17 C-130J
aircraft would begin in early 2010. A new C-130 deal will
soon permit the CAF to divert its existing fleet of 1960s
vintage C-130s to duty as interim domestic search and rescue
(SAR) platforms. He expressed confidence that the CAF would
release its bid package for the replacement of its fixed-wing
SAR aircraft by fall 2009, which would require that the
winning bid match or exceed the combined capabilities of both
the older C-130 Hercules and the DHC-5 Buffalo. LtGen. Watt
noted that electro-optical and machine gun upgrade contracts
for the CH-41 Griffon helicopter were already in place. He
highlighted that Canada remains a participant in the U.S.-led
Joint Strike Fighter project, with Canadian industry winning
some valuable contracts. He admitted, however, that the
government had not yet decided on a specific replacement for
its aging fleet of 80 operational F-18 fighters.

Troubled Procurements
--------------


6. (C//NF) LtGen. Watt observed that the government also was
pressing ahead with some of its more complicated purchases.
Canada's 2001 procurement of 15 Augusta-Westland CH-149
Cormorant SAR helicopters had been a major disappointment, he
said, as had been the builder's effort to redesign the
aircraft's flawed tail structure -- a project that would take
an "unacceptable" five years to complete. A separate
contract with Sikorsky to deliver 28 CH-148 Cyclone
helicopters to replace the remaining 1960s-era CH-124 Sea
Kings was behind schedule, he acknowledged, while stressing
that elements of it were undergoing re-negotiation to find a
workable resolution. For Afghanistan, LtGen. Watt noted that
a "more capable leased interim solution" would replace the
CAF's depleted fleet of Sperwer UAVs by the end of 2008.
Officials have begun preparing for the replacement of the
interim UAV with an even more capable long-endurance
aircraft. He commented that the CAF had had to extend the
life of its fleet of 15 CP-140 Aurora anti-submarine warfare
platforms to 2017, but had won approval from the government
to begin the 10-year process of procuring a replacement
aircraft.

Comment
--------------


7. (C//NF) Military modernization and expansion of the
Canadian Forces' capabilities in both manpower and equipment
have been a key priority for the Conservative government of
Prime Minister Stephen Harper (ref c),especially under its
new "Canada First Defence Strategy" (ref a). Some specific
new procurements -- helicopters and UAVs -- were also
pre-conditions for the March 2008 House of Commons approval
of an extension of the CF's mandate in Kandahar through 2011
(ref b). Despite the government's minority status in the
House of Commons, these ambitious plans, including for the
CAF, remain sustainable in the current political climate,
especially in that they not only advance the mission in
Afghanistan but also track with Canada's desire to project
its national power to assert its Arctic sovereignty. Should
Qits national power to assert its Arctic sovereignty. Should
the next federal election -- which could happen as early fall
2008 or as late as October 2009 -- bring the current Official
Opposition Liberal Party back into government, however, there
is concern in defense circles that the Liberals would trim
much of this new procurement in order to divert funds for its
higher priority goals for the environment and social welfare.
However, the Conservatives continue to express confidence
that they will win the next election and perhaps even form a
majority government, and have pledged to continue
significantly to invest in Canada's defense capabilities over
the coming decade.

Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada

WILKINS