PRESIDENT SAAKASHVILI'S OCTOBER 29 VISIT TO NORWAY

UNCLAS OSLO 000587

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL NATO GG NO
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT SAAKASHVILI'S OCTOBER 29 VISIT TO NORWAY

REF: OSLO 513


1. (U) Summary: Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili
visited Oslo on October 29, meeting with PM Stoltenberg, and
holding a public address at the Nobel Institute. Georgian FM
Eka Tkeshelashvili accompanied him and met with FM Stoere.
In his remarks Saakashvili firmly blamed Russia for the
conflict in August and stressed his belief that Georgia would
win the "competition of ideas" with Russia and continue the
economic and civil society progress made since independence.
Saakashvili said that Norway "didn't say no" to eventual
Georgian NATO membership and that he understood that the
process would be a long one. Saakashvili also faced many
questions on Georgia's record on media freedom and
independence of the judiciary. Norway has recently announced
an assistance package for Georgia of approximately 36 million
dollars (235 million NOK) which will be used for humanitarian
needs, for promotion of good governance, judicial sector
reform and hydropower development. End Summary.

Russia to Blame
--------------

2. (U) One of the main thrusts of Saakashvili's public
remarks was to explain the long history of Russian actions
against Georgia leading to the August conflict. Saakashvili
pointed to Russia's 2006 boycott of Georgian goods and cut
off of energy supplies as the first evidence of Russian
aggression. Touching only briefly on the fighting in August,
Saakashvili stated that it was clear that Russia intended to
invade and Georgia had no choice but to respond. Saakashvili
repeatedly emphasized the realities of living next to an
aggressive neighbor with overwhelming military force and the
will to use it. He pointed out the huge amounts Russia
spends on its security sector and said that Russia's goal was
to annihilate the Georgian government and seize the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Saakashvili believes this was
only stopped by the clear willingness of the Georgian armed
forces to resist and President Bush's statement that a
Russian attack on Tbilisi would be unacceptable. In his
remarks PM Stoltenberg was not willing to assess blame for
the August conflict and called for an international
independent investigation. Saakashvili was positive about
such an investigation. Stoltenberg repeated his condemnation
of the Russian use of force in August but also stressed
criticism about the Georgian government's reactions and
explained Norway's practical approach to Russia.

What to do now? NATO and Economic growth
--------------

3. (U) The second objective of Saakashvili's remarks was to
paint a picture of Georgia as a reforming, European state
which should be granted NATO membership. Saakashvili rattled
off a long list of ways that his government had improved the
economy, fought corruption and continued to reform civil
society and government. He faced many critical questions
from the audience on Georgia's record on media freedom,
judicial independence and other human rights issues and
answered each one with specific examples of how he was
addressing these concerns. On NATO, he stated that this was
a moral issue for Georgia. Georgia is trying to build a
stable democracy but is threatened by Russia which does not
recognize national borders. Saakashvili said it was a
mistake not to give Georgia MAP status at the NATO Bucharest
summit and said that Russia had taken advantage of this
mistake. He claimed that Norway was supportive of granting
Georgia MAP status when it was ready and said that Georgians
understand that the process will take time. Saakashvili said
that although Georgia cannot compete with Russia militarily
it would win the "competition of ideas" by continuing
Georgia's economic growth and political and societal reforms.

Norway's Response to Georgia
--------------

4. (SBU) Norwegian response to Saakashvili's visit was
restrained and somewhat skeptical. PM Stoltenberg continued
the GON's policy of criticizing both Russia and Georgia for
the August conflict. Most leading GON figures view Russia's
actions during the conflict as unacceptable but put a large
degree of blame on Saakashvili himself for provoking Russia's
response. The vast majority of Norwegians see their
cooperative relationship with Russia as "smart" and the model
all neighbors of Russia should follow, without acknowledging
that NATO plays a role in making this work. Norwegians
frequently, but carefully, imply that Russia's small
neighbors provoke Russia, something "wise" Norwegians
wouldn't do. Media coverage of Saakashvili's visit was
somewhat critical with commentators rejecting his claim that
the Bucharest's summit decision on MAP status was a factor in
the Russian invasion and criticizing Georgia for human rights
violations.


5. (U) The GON recently announced a substantial assistance
package for Georgia of approximately $36 million from
2008-2010. This money will be directed at humanitarian
needs, through the NGO Norwegian Refugee Council and will be
primarily help to clear unexploded ordnance. In addition
Norway will work on judicial sector reform and development of
Georgia's hydropower resources.
WHITNEY