TURNING THE TIDE WITH NORWAY ON JSF

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000585

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE PASS TO DEPSECDEF OFFICE AND DEPUTY
UNDERSECRETARY USAFE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LEMKIN, STATE
FOR A/S KIMMITT, CDR USAFE RAMSTEIN FOR GENERAL ROGER BRADY,

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2018
TAGS: MARR, MASS, MCAP, PREL, PGOV, NO
SUBJECT: TURNING THE TIDE WITH NORWAY ON JSF

REF: OSLO 522

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Kevin M. Johnson
for reasons 1.4 b and d

1. (C) Summary. Following months of ambiguity and several
conflicting indicators, and after strong engagement by senior
DOD and DOS officials, Norwegian selection of the F-35
Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter appears significantly more
likely. Recent comments by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs
and Defense indicate that the process is on-schedule and will
be decided on the stated criteria which play to the F-35's
strengths. Media reporting has also shifted noticeably and
appears more balanced. This positive shift is a result of
the strong USG push and is important for the protection of
NATO's northern flank, the bilateral relationship, and the
JSF program internationally. End Summary.


The Campaign
--------------
2. (C) In reftel, Post outlined the negative media coverage
and mixed comments from insiders that seemed to put Norway's
selection of the JSF in jeopardy. Norway's selection is
important to the U.S. because:

--We want a strong defense of NATO's northern flank, secured
by the superior capabilities of F-35s in Norway.
--We want to ensure the close U.S.-Norwegian military ties
continue, and participation in JSF will naturally support
this.
--We want high levels of interoperability in NATO.
--Norway will be the first JSF partner to make a choice on
the plane and thus will disproportionally affect other
partners' choices.

3. (C) Post thus requested a dedicated USG effort to ensure
Norway understands the importance of their choice and the
virtues of the JSF. As a result, the Deputy Secretary of
Defense in meetings and phone calls, State's Assistant
Secretary Kimmitt and USAFE Commander General Brady in visits
to Oslo, and post's outreach campaign delivered a strong,
coordinated USG message which publicly professed the
unequalled capabilities of the aircraft and the value we
place on the relationship, and privately pressed for the
selection of the F-35.

Apparent Results
--------------
4. (C) As a result of this committed effort, we now believe
the tide has turned in Norway. The media have recently run a
number of articles from active duty and retired officers
extolling the strengths of the F-35. Commentators who have
previously said the Gripen is the best plane have been
attacked by leading Parliamentarians for being ill-informed.
While articles in favor of the Gripen still appear, there is
now a balance and more accurate reporting of facts which is
working in our favor.

5. (C) More importantly, in an October 24 Ambassador's
meeting, the Foreign Minister, who we judge to be
instrumental in the decision, said we should "trust the
process" which will be on time and based on quality, price,
and industrial participation. There is "integrity to the
process" and if we "sit still in the boat" all should work
out. He stressed the need for political credibility in the
competition, and that the process can withstand uninformed
media attacks. He ended saying we should "have faith". The
Minister of Defense was more circumspect but also said the
process is set and only MOD knows the full data on the
planes. She urged the Ambassador to be reassured about the
process. These comments align with more forward leaning ones
expressed by Deputy Minister of Defense Barth-Eide who has
privately given every signal that the F-35 will be selected.
In fact, in a candid conversation with USAFE Commander
General Brady on 23 October, Barth Eide said: "If you
believe you have the best aircraft, trust the
process. Do not overplay your hand."
What Now?
--------------

6. (C) Despite these reassurances, the selection of the F-35
is still no sure thing, and much can happen before the final
decision. We expect MOD to deliver its recommendation to the
GON any day. The GON in turn will make a recommendation to
the Parliament on December 19 of this year. Given the GON's
political majority position, it can force its recommendation
on the aircraft (for good or ill) through the Parliament.
However, based on the strong, recent indicators, we believe
we need to maintain a steady course by:

--Continuing to discreetly demonstrate USG focus on the issue
and our commitment to the relationship, while being cautious
not to over-assert our position and thereby potentially
affront Norwegian sensitivities on their selection
prerogatives.
--Correcting major factual errors in the media where
necessary.
--Continue to engage in any conferences, debates, or other
public forums on the program being offered by the JSF
partnership, when and where requested so as not to appear
overly confident. We must continue to act as an honorable ad
gracious competitor.

7. (C) In short, we beieve we are close to success and now
simply needcareful shepherding to bring it home. We thank
ashington, EUCM and USAFE for the strong engagemet that
has turned the tide for us, and we look foward to our
continued team efforts to keep Norwa in the program. We
hope the Norwegin experience proves useful in other
countries facing a similar competition.

WHITNEY