NERVOUS ABOUT RUSSIA, NORWAY STRESSING HIGH NORTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000489

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2018
TAGS: PREL RS NO
SUBJECT: NERVOUS ABOUT RUSSIA, NORWAY STRESSING HIGH NORTH
VULNERABILITIES TO ALLIES

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Kevin M. Johnson
for reasons 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Summary. Russian experts in Norway have a realistic
and well informed view of negative trends in Russia but
public statements by the GON will continue to stress Norway's
positive bilateral relationship with Russia. After Georgia
the GON will stress the potential for conflict in the High
North region and the need for allied attention to this
region. End Summary


2. (C) Despite great efforts to balance public criticism of
Russia with positive comments about the bilateral
relationship, Norway views Russia with a clear lens, fully
aware of negative trends and potential threats to Norway's
interests. Public statements by GON officials routinely
stress the positive bilateral relationship and emphasize that
Norway approaches Russia both as a neighbor (uniformly
stressing the positive) and as a member of the wider European
community (at times criticizing Russian actions, but
primarily arguing for dialogue and inclusion). Such public
cautiousness should not give the impression that the GON is
nave or lacking in understanding of negative trends in
Russia. It does, however, indicate potential clashes with
USG views on how to respond to negative trends.


3. (C) During Ambassador Volker's recent visit to Oslo,
Robert Kvile, acting head of the High North, Resources and
Russia section, briefed on Norway's analysis of Russian
foreign and domestic priorities. Volker was impressed by
this analysis and stated that he had not seen such clear
analysis of Russia in most European capitals.

Norway - Russia bilateral relationship
--------------

4. (C) Kvile started by explaining the unique aspects of
Norway's relations with Russia. Since the end of the Cold
War, Norway has worked at improving their Barents
interactions with Russia and has been successful in creating
cooperative relationships in environmental cleanup, nuclear
safety, fisheries management and people-to-people exchanges.
This close relationship impacts the wider relationship as the
GON does not want to throw away the hard earned progress in
bilateral relations (or damage the potential future
cooperation on energy development or agreement on a maritime
border) for events elsewhere. Norway also puts great stock on
its thousand year history of peace with Russia and views the
likelihood of conflict with Russia low, although events in
Georgia are raising concerns.

Russian Internal Developments
--------------

5. (C) Having explained the rationale for the GON's
traditionally relatively timid public posture Kvile then
painted a detailed picture of the negative developments in
Russia. Kvile characterized analysis of Russia's domestic
developments as largely based on wishful thinking. The
Russian use of force in Georgia isthe first since the 1990s
and shows who has the pper hand in the Kremlin, namely the
Putin-securty oriented forces. The military has great
influence as does the FSB which is taking over the role
formerly played by the communist party. For these forces
control of politics and the economy is the main agenda.
Pluralism or democracy, or even the interests of the Russian
people, are not things that the Kremlin is interested in.
Kvile said that the GON is concerned when they look into the
future and ask if the Russian trend to use force could
spread. An obvious area of concern is on Svalbard where
Norway and Russia have different interpretations of the
Spitzbergen treaty.

Norway's Strategy
--------------

6. (C) The GON is currently trying to grapple with the
question on what price Russia should pay for their
misbehavior in Georgia. For the GON it would be very hard to
cancel something in the High North as it would hurt Norway
more than Russia. Kvile stated that the general GON policy
for the future was to increase Norwegian presence in the High
North, diversify activities in the region and increase the
level of knowledge about the Barents region within Europe and
with allies. To this end the GON has bilateral dialogues
with the U.S., UK, France, Germany and Canada on High North
issues. Energy resource exploitation, opening of new
shipping and transit corridors (as the Northeast Passage
becomes ice free) and the issues of resources on or around
Svalbard will ensure continued Norwegian attention to the
region (and from the perspective of the GON hopefully wider).
Norway hopes its own and other western attention to the High
North will make it harder for Russia to obtain its objectives
on Svalbard or elsewhere in the region with the use or threat
of brute force. Seperately, Defense Ministry sources
mentioned that the Defense Minister will attempt to highlight
the Barents Area as a potential area of conflict with Russia
durign the upcoming fall meetings of NATO Defense Ministers.

WHITNEY