NORWEGIAN DEFENSE VIEWS: A TOUR DE FORCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000460

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PBTS MCAP MOPS RU NO
SUBJECT: NORWEGIAN DEFENSE VIEWS: A TOUR DE FORCE

Classified By: CDA Kevin Johnson for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In conjunction with an August 5-11
congressional staff delegation visit to Norway, State
Secretary Espen Barth Eide gave a tour de force presentation
on Norwegian defense policy. His presentations covered the
High North, Norwegian military strategy, Russia's signaling
behavior, and terrorism. Interestingly, he predicted a
conflict in Georgia just days before it occurred. Septel
will report GON reaction to the Georgia crisis. End Summary.

Meeting with Deputy Minister of Defense
--------------


2. (SBU) On August 6th, Espen Barth Eide, Norwegian State
Secretary (Deputy Minister) for Defense gave a comprehensive
presentation on Norwegian defense strategy and policy to a
visiting congressional staff delegation, the Ambassador and
others from the US Embassy.

Defense Policy framework
--------------


3. (SBU) Framing his discussion of Norwegian policy, Barth
Eide cautioned against projecting the acute issues of today
to the future. He suggested that there are three ongoing
threats: (1) the so-called "transitional" European issues,
exemplified by the wars in the Balkans; (2) 9/11 and
asymmetric conflicts; and now (3) the "return of history" in
the reemergence of geopolitics revolving around Russia,
China, and oil. Barth Eide emphasized that old problems do
not evaporate just because new ones appear, and Norwegian
defense policy is organized around layered interpretations of
what is happening in the world.

The High North
--------------


4. (C) Barth Eide emphasized that the High North was in a
transitional phase, due to the increasing value of
hydrocarbons and the decreasing ice which will make the polar
route between China and the Atlantic economically feasible.
He noted that Norway's maritime economic zone (fisheries and
offshore petroleum) is seven times larger than its landmass.
Negotiations on the disputed "grey zone" maritime boundary
between Norway and Russia are moving at a "glacial" pace, and
neither Norway nor Russia had any particular incentive to
resolve the issue any time soon.


5. (C) Barth Eide noted the frequent presence of Russian
ships around Svalbard, and the growing tensions surrounding
the potential of hydrocarbon exploitation around the island.
Norway posits a "fisheries protection zone" around the
island, which is not universally legally accepted, but is he
claimed tolerated by all nations. Barth Eide said that
low-level conflicts justified a Norwegian navy, as such
conflicts would not result in NATO intervention. The presence
of a frigate could "raise the costs" of Russian interference
and send important signals about Norway's intentions.


6. (C) Barth Eide repeatedly emphasized the significance of
Norway as the world's most stable oil and gas exporter, and
said that ship-based gas deliveries, such as the new
deliveries to Cove Point, Maryland, "change the strategic
considerations." He suggested that increasing U.S. imports
mean that there are increased security implications in the
High North for the U.S.

Norwegian Military Capabilities and Future Plans
--------------


7. (C) Barth Eide contrasted the position of Norway with that
of a country like the Netherlands, which he said has
effectively given up on defending its own territory and
focuses only on international operations in conflicts like
Afghanistan. Barth Eide emphasized Norway has a "double
task": it must remain deployable to defend its territory in
the High North as well as participate in international
operations.


8. (C) Barth Eide justified recent moves toward Nordic
defense cooperation by drawing two triangles next to each
other, their lower two thirds overlapping and representing
military support structure, and their top 1/3 pinnacles
representing operational structure. "We want to maximize
resources for the top third," so we have sufficient resources
to "do things," and maximize cooperation in the bottom third,

for example through joint training infrastructures, so as to
be able to "prepare to do things," Barth Eide said.


9. (C) The size of the Norwegian army is increasing, Barth
Eide claimed, and High North issues are driving that trend.
He commented that 90% of the Norwegian population support
membership in NATO and understand the need for armed forces.
Conscription remains mandatory in Norway, and those who are
conscripted are generally happy, and those who do not want to
be conscripted generally find a way out.

Russia's Projection of Power near Norway
--------------


10. (C) Barth Eide had an emphatic view of Russia's
significantly more visible projection of power near Norway.
Since last year, Russian long-range bomber flights along the
Norwegian coast have become a weekly occurrence, and NATO
scrambles fighters to meet them every time. Barth Eide joked
that the Norwegian press was becoming rather blase about the
press releases Norway issues every time this occurs, but
Norway wants to signal to Russia that Russia is being
watched. Contrary to Russian military authorities, who state
that these are merely training exercises, Barth Eide
interprets these flights as a clear signal that "nyet means
nyet" when it comes to Russian red-lines like NATO membership
for Ukraine. Barth Eide noted a recent massive Russian naval
exercise in the middle of several Norwegian oil platforms--an
exercise which required the oil companies to suspend
helicopter flights to and from the platforms due to heavy
Russian air activity. The Norwegians "politely" asked the
Russians to take their exercise elsewhere, but Barth Eide
noted with dry wit that "we have reason to believe that they
knew that the platforms were there." Overall, Barth Eide
said that recent Russian actions indicated that they want to
signal that "their military capacities have been
rehabilitated." Barth Eide tempered his remarks, however, by
saying that given Russia's newfound wealth and
self-confidence, it could hardly be expected to behave much
differently with its military. Furthermore, he said that
Norway has, and continues to anticipate, "healthy, positive"
cooperation with Russia and engagement on developing the
Shtokman gas field.


11. (C) Barth Eide then posed the question, "Will there be
more and more Afghanistans (i.e. failed states harboring
terrorists)? Or more and more issues with Russia?"
Significantly, he said, "we shouldn't punish Russia in the
High North for what they do to the Czechs," manifesting a
concern with Norway's own negotiating position rather than
worry about overall Russian intentions. Barth Eide seemed to
posit a fixed series of Russian interests, which, if
frustrated, would lead to needless and avoidable conflict.
He said, "Russia is drawing a red line around Ukraine, and
red lines are what is at issue in the Georgia conflict."


12. (C) Prophetically, Barth Eide said that a war in Georgia
and war with Iran were equally likely. (This briefing took
place on the morning of Wednesday, August 6. War broke out
between Russia and Georgia on Friday, August 8.) "Europe has
not been 'fixed,'" asserted Barth Eide, challenging those
within and outside of Europe who view Europe as an
irrelevancy in global conflicts. "NATO in its classical
version remains relevant," said Barth Eide.


13. (C) Barth Eide expressed a surprisingly benign view on
Russia's "turning off the gas" on Ukraine and Belarus for
political reasons. He said that while this issue rightly
stirred Western debate on energy security (and he took the
opportunity to reiterate Norway's stability as an energy
supplier),he questioned whether Russian behavior was
significant. He pointed out that Russia simply raised the
price of gas to world market levels, and questioned whether
western market-based democracies have any standing to
question this behavior, even when it might be prompted by
political concerns. Overall, these incidents pointed to the
world transitioning back to a more historic
commodities-based, rather than service-based economy, where
"things are in physical locations, and this drives
geopolitics."

Terrorism and Global Structures
--------------


14. (C) In a typically broad statement, Barth Eide said that
the world has paid much too much attention in recent decades
to global structures such as the world bank, WTO and UN
(Comment: Norway has done this more than most. End
comment.). Barth Eide opined that the main problem is not
the institutions or policies that tie states together but the
weakness of nation states themselves. "Weak states have
become the problem" in dealing with issues as disparate as
AIDS and terrorism. Apparently not seeing any contradiction,
he went on to state that combating terrorism should be
strictly a police/intelligence issue, and is not a challenge
of the armed forces. Ambassador Whitney pointed out, in
rebuttal, that all of Norway's armed forces actively deployed
are currently in Afghanistan, a conflict directly linked to
terrorism. Barth Eide responded that militaries can help
create conditions under which terrorism does not flourish,
but this does not mean that they can fight terrorism
directly.

Comment
--------------


15. (C) Comment: Some of Barth Eide's comments seemed
aspirational rather than realistic. At this time, for
example, the Norwegian navy does not have a single frigate
adequately manned to confront the Russians in the High North,
and despite his "double task" comment, the Norwegian armed
forces are not numerous enough to present more than a
symbolic defense of expansive Norwegian territory. In fact,
the commander of Norway,s Army was recently quoted as saying
that the army has only enough resources to defend a
neighborhood of Oslo. Two tensions were evident from Barth
Eide's presentation. First, there seemed to be a tension
between viewing Russia as malevolent, and viewing its
behavior as tolerable even when threatening. Second, Barth
Eide,s view that terrorism is a police action, is in
conflict with NATO,s and Norway's extensive involvement in
Afghanistan. This latter tension reflects Norwegians'
inherent discomfort with the idea of a "war" on terror. End
Comment.


16. (SBU) Septel will analyze the GON response to the Georgia
crisis.
WHITNEY