THE DEEP SOUTH POST-COUP: THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NOUAKCHOTT 000682

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAGR ECON ELTN MR
SUBJECT: THE DEEP SOUTH POST-COUP: THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: Since the August 6 military-led overthrow of
President Abdallahi, political and economic conditions in the
south of Mauritania have remained largely unchanged,
according to numerous community leaders. Politically, most
community leaders showed tacit approval for the coup, with
only one deputy mayor expressing a strong anti-coup position.
Economically, the situation remains as dire as ever. The
military junta has enacted a few measures, such as price
controls, to provide some temporary relief for the populace,
but the overall economic picture remains one of grinding
poverty and underinvestment. End Summary.


2. (SBU) A three-person Embassy/USAID team traveled to the
far south of Mauritania November 10-12 to assess the
political and economic climate in the region since the August
6 coup. (Note: The team also assessed the refugee situation
SEPTEL. End Note.) The team visited community leaders in the
towns of Rosso, Boghe, and Kaedi, and the villages of Jidr El
Mohguen, N'Tekane, and M'Bagne. All of these towns and
villages lie either directly on the Senegal River or a short
distance from it. The team had intended to meet primarily
mayors, but in town after town, was informed that the mayor
had "just left" for Nouakchott. Consequently, the team met
with only one mayor, and several deputy mayors, secretaries
general, and town councils. Comment: Unconfirmed reports
indicate that mayors from around the country were called to
Nouakchott during this time by a ministerial commission to
hear the plans for the upcoming "national dialogue on
democracy." Many of these mayors are in remote communities,
making a trip to Nouakchott a serious undertaking. If the
reports are true, this indicates a concerted effort by the
High State Council to ensure a broad participation of
political players for the "national dialogue on democracy."
End Comment.

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The political situation -- same as it ever was
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3. (C) Most community leaders indicated that there had been
little or no change at all in the political situation since
the military coup of August 6, with things muddling along as
they had before. In any event, most leaders indicated that
such political matters were beyond their concern. As the
Secretary General of Rosso El Hadj M'Bodj stated, "all of the
intrigue is in Nouakchott," and his residents have more
pressing concerns like feeding their families. This was a
recurring theme among the people the team spoke with.


4. (C) Tacit support of the military regime: The personal
political positions of the community leaders were by and
large subtly pro-coup. Leaders never stated outright that
they supported the coup or General Aziz. Rather, they made
statements that implied a tacit support for General Aziz's
"rectification" or they referred to President Abdallahi's
"blocking" of democratic institutions. Only in one community
(Jidr El Mohguen) was there an overt display of support for
the military junta, where General Aziz's portrait was
prominently displayed in every office. "We are disciplined
here", the mayor Cheikh Ould Mouloud said, to the quiet
laughter of the other Mauritanians gathered. However, even
this mayor never explicitly stated his personal position with
respect to the military junta, and at no time on the trip did
EmbOffs receive a litany of past wrongdoings by President
Abdallahi or a blatant towing of the "party line" that is so
frequently espoused in the press in Nouakchott.


5. (C) A lone anti-coup voice: Only one community leader,
the deputy mayor of Boghe N'Diaye Djibril, took a strong
anti-coup position, but he was careful to point out that it
was his own personal opinion. (Comment: A few community
leaders in other locales took a cautious middle-of-the-road
position, but seemed to subtly lean towards the anti-coup
camp as well. End Comment.) He said that it took a certain
amount of courage to undertake the initiatives that Abdallahi
had begun, such as building national unity and addressing the
refugee issue. Things had appeared to be progressing in a
positive manner, according to him, and then suddenly a coup

NOUAKCHOTT 00000682 002 OF 003


happened. People didn't understand why there was a coup, he
said; it was unexpected. As the conversation moved to more
sensitive topics, he closed and locked the door to his office
and turned on the air conditioning to provide background
"cover" noise. Becoming more animated and gesturing
forcefully, he said Mauritania needed to develop a durable
democracy that wasn't susceptible to coups and clan
rivalries. He went on to say "we are tired of this
clan-based system," and that "every general will eventually
be president" if this system continues. He stressed that
Mauritanians do not have a history of democratic processes
and traditions to look back on, which leads to a lack of
political awareness and maturity among the populace -- a
sentiment echoed by others during this trip as well.
Comment: As noted above, this deputy mayor was the only
person to declare a firm position one way or another
regarding the coup. However, the fact that he saw the need
to close the door and provide background noise when
discussing his personal anti-coup views indicates a
reluctance to voice them too loudly lest they be overheard.
End Comment.


6. (C) Diverse town councils: The composition of town
councils was diverse. For example, in Jidr El Mohguen, the
council consisted of 16 advisors, of which 4 were women,
while in Kaedi, there were 21 advisors, 5 of which were
women. The mayor in Jidr El Mohguen Cheikh Ould Mouloud was
especially proud of his council, stressing that all ethnic
groups were represented, and teachers, intellectuals, and
engineers figured among the council. Political party
representation showed the most diversity, a byproduct of the
myriad parties present in Nouakchott. For example, the Boghe
town council contained members from APP, RFD, UFP,
Alternative (Badil),ADIL, AJD/MR, and PLEJ. Comment:
Despite the smorgasbord of political parties represented in
many towns and villages, this does not necessarily indicate a
well-developed political scene. In fact, several community
leaders stated that the population at large (and the
political parties themselves) only cares about politics in
their town when a campaign is underway. End Comment.

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The economic situation -- still precarious
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7. (C) Overall, the economic situation remains as dire as
ever in the south. Although the High State Council has taken
some temporary measures, particularly during Ramadan, to
lower prices for necessities such as fuel, rice, and cooking
oil, there is no sign that these measures will lead to any
sort of sustained relief for the population. Community
leaders overwhelmingly stated that they have not seen any
significant change in the economic situation since the August
6 coup.


8. (C) The challenges: When asked to name the primary
economic challenges that their communities face, the same
problems were heard again and again: food security and
transportation. Food security was at the top of the list.
Agricultural practices were in need of modernization to
enable people to move beyond hand-to-mouth subsistence
farming. Although the south was the "breadbasket of
Mauritania," according to several mayors, lack of investment
hindered the region from realizing its full agricultural
potential.


9. (C) Transportation problems were the second economic
challenge most frequently cited. These problems stem from
the fact that the road from Rosso to Boghe is almost wholly
unpaved dirt track, making travel slow in the best of times,
and nearly impossible during the rainy seasons. Several
leaders cited paved roads as the key to economic development,
with the mayor of Jidr El Mohguen eagerly anticipating the
completion of a paved road in January that will lead from
Rosso to the turn-off for his village. The secretary general
of Rosso stressed that although his town is a provincial
capital and a major waypoint for travelers between Mauritania
and Senegal, the main roads in the center of the town were
dirt that turned to mud during the rainy season, impeding
commerce and generally making a mess of things.


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Praise For U.S. Presidential Elections
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10. (C) Many of the meetings ended with a brief discussion
of the recent U.S. presidential elections. (Note: These
discussions were frequently initiated by the Mauritanians
themselves. End Note.) Without exception, Mauritanians were
full of praise and admiration. "Thank you for the great
lesson in democracy that you have given us," was one
representative sentiment. They praised the ability of the
U.S. to move past the racial problems of the past and to
select "the best man for the job." Comment: This popular
sentiment mirrors editorials in the local press, which have
been almost unanimously congratulatory to the United States,
and excited by the prospect of a man of African descent in
the White House. End Comment.

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Comment
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11. (C) The south remains Mauritania's most-populated and
poorest region of the country. This is a situation that is
unlikely to change anytime soon, especially given the
numerous international development projects in the south that
have been put on hold since the August 6 coup. Politically,
community leaders are in a precarious position -- taking a
strong anti-coup stand risks cutting off what little
assistance the central government provides to their towns.
Principled stands are hard to take when basic survival needs
are at stake. Consequently, a cautious "wait and see"
attitude seems to prevail among community leaders. Although
there is tacit support for the military junta, what most
leaders really want to see is increased investment and
development in their regions that will provide food security
for their people. Nevertheless, pro-coup and anti-coup
leaders alike expressed hope for an overhaul of the
Mauritanian political system that would lead to a stable
democracy and sustained economic development, offering a
glimmer of hope that democratic principles have taken some
root among the political class.

HANKINS