CANDIDATES GEARING UP FOR LAST MONTH OF CAMPAIGN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000048

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: CANDIDATES GEARING UP FOR LAST MONTH OF CAMPAIGN



1. (SBU) Summary: January 18 marked the beginning of the end of
the Cypriot presidential race, with candidates formally depositing
their paperwork with electoral authorities. With no clear favorite,
the campaign is bound to become uglier and more personal in coming
weeks. Incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos is preparing to up the attack
on AKEL challenger Dimitris Christofias, emphasizing the latter's
communist, anti-European-integration background while also seeking
to expose inconsistencies in his positions and policies. For his
part, Christofias has chosen to ignore third-place candidate Ioannis
Kasoulides (DISY),and is consumed instead with criticizing the
President's "woeful" Cyprus Problem negotiation record. Kasoulides
is attempting to stay above the fray, looking to the future and
aiming to "win back Cyprus's allies in the EU and broader
international community." A handful of additional fringe candidates
also have entered the race, although their likely impact looks
miniscule. End Summary.

--------------
Ballot Grows Larger in Size
--------------


2. (U) Nine presidential hopefuls officially submitted their
candidacies at Nicosia's Hilton Park Hotel on January 18. Alongside
front-running President Tassos Papadopoulos, AKEL challenger
Dimitris Christofias, and DISY standard-bearer Ioannis Kasoulides --
each polling between 29 and 33 percent of the vote -- are renegade
European Parliamentarian Marios Matsakis (two percent),former
Agriculture Minister Costas Themistocleous (less than one percent),
and four fringe candidates. The Election Service announced that
515,994 Cypriots were eligible to vote in the two-round elections.
Officials confidently asserted that final results for each round
will be available just three hours after polls close.

--------------
On their Marks for a Close Race
--------------


3. (U) Analysts remain unable to predict the outcome with
certainty, since most polls reveal the three candidates separated by
less than the margin of statistical error. Moreover, experts claim
that traditional Cypriot voting behaviors are in flux, a product of
the 2004 Annan Plan referendum which saw many rank-and-file
disobeying their leaders' voting instructions and upsetting
traditionally high cohesion. Further, socioeconomic changes on the
island and international political developments over the past two
decades have weakened formerly iron-clad ideological boundaries,
resulting in an inability to produce safe electoral predictions.

-------------- --------------
Papadopoulos-Christofias Confrontation Gets Uglier
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) The Papadopoulos and Christofias teams are convinced they
will advance to the February 24 runoff; attacking each other daily,
they mostly ignore Kasoulides. In an attempt to co-opt
lower-income, AKEL-supportive voters, Papadopoulos has abandoned
fiscal austerity measures enacted to ensure entry into the Eurozone,
and has announced generous government spending packages. According
to Papadopoulos insider Polakis Sarris, the President will announce
at least three new givebacks in the run-up to the February 17 first
round. Sarris also prefaced a full-scale attack to be unleashed
against Christofias. "Powerful" TV spots will highlight the AKEL
leader's communist credentials, opposition to the Euro, and policy
inconsistencies both before and after he left the government
coalition in July 2007.


5. (SBU) Assuming that Kasoulides will fail to advance,
Papadopoulos's team is already soliciting support from leading DISY
figures. Sarris named three prominent "turncoats" who allegedly
have pledged to announce their support for Papadopoulos once the
first round results are announced. The idea is to preempt DISY
leader Nikos Anastassiades from rallying the party behind
Christofias, as he allegedly intends to do (supposedly in exchange
for Christofias's job as House Speaker). Dismissing polling that
predicts a neck-in-neck run-off, Sarris boldly predicts a landslide
victory for the incumbent.


6. (U) In light of Papadopoulos's recent social spending binge,
Christofias no longer is attacking the President's austere economic
stewardship. Instead, he has chosen to focus on the Cyprus Problem,
attempting to upset Papadopoulos's image as a skillful negotiator
and blaming him for bringing the island to the brink of partition.
Elements of the Annan Plan negotiation have taken center stage in
the AKEL leader's effort. For example, he lambasted the President
for failing to capitalize on an alleged offer -- made during the
March 2004 talks in Burgenstock, Switzerland -- to return the
Karpass Peninsula to Greek Cypriot control, implying that
Papadopoulos did not wish to improve the Annan Plan and make it
acceptable to G/Cs. Christofias has pledged to continue his
"revelations" in coming weeks.

-------------- --------------
AKEL, DIKO: Returning Disillusioned Voters to the Fold
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Polls indicate that between 12 and 14 percent of AKEL
voters have defected to Papadopoulos' camp, threatening
Christofias's candidacy. In response, the party of late has engaged
in a vigorous door door-to-door campaign in even the most remote of
communities, attempting to win them back. In pounding the pavement,
AKEL reportedly has registered 7,000 new voters in the last three
months. Defections also trouble the Papadopoulos camp; media report
declining cohesion rates (to 65 percent) within coalition party
EDEK. EDEK faithful with strong leftist ties are particularly
susceptible to AKEL-orchestrated recruitment, insiders claim.

--------------
DISY: We Can Cultivate Allies, Win Respect
--------------


8. (SBU) With Papadopoulos and Christofias rutting in the mud,
Kasoulides lately has attempted to burnish his statesman's role by
showcasing close ties to Europe's preeminent leaders. Cyprus's
relations with the EU and broader international community have
suffered during Papadopoulos's administration, he charges; he
promises to right them during his tenure. Embassy contacts report
that Kasoulides must quietly plan meetings with other EU leaders,
since he fears the government (read, Papadopoulos) might intervene
to cancel them. The DISY candidate is not ignoring substance during
his trips abroad; after returning from a January 15 meeting with
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, he declared that, if elected,
Cyprus's would seek membership in NATO's Partnership for Peace
(PFP).

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) With the presidential race remaining too close to call, we
plan to leave our crystal ball locked up in the closet. That said,
a Papadopoulos-Christofias runoff on February 24 seems the safest
bet. In such a scenario, a battle to co-opt DISY voters in the
run-up to Round II would wage loudly. Leaders like Kasoulides and
Anastassiades will face a rock-and-a-hard-place choice: to support
Papadopoulos, despised for his perceived arrogance and anti-DISY
diatribes, or to back AKEL, the long-time ideological enemy.
Opinions vary over which way they'll turn -- and our contacts
believe that many party faithful will ignore their instructions
anyway. The worst-case scenario has Anastassiades endorsing
Christofias, only to see him lose the run-off owing to rank-and-file
DISY support for the President. A bloody power struggle would
result, possibly splitting the party permanently.