HOW VIRGIN MUST THE BIRTH OF A NEW, POST-SOLUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000287

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE, EUR/ERA, IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV CY TU
SUBJECT: HOW VIRGIN MUST THE BIRTH OF A NEW, POST-SOLUTION
CYPRUS BE?

REF: REF: MCMURRAN-PANICO E-MAIL 3/3/08

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Schlicher for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Just two weeks into long-delayed preparatory
discussions at the working group/technical committee level,
Turkish and Greek Cypriots already are hotly debating (albeit
indirectly) one of the prickliest components of a final
settlement: the origin and sovereignty of a reunified
Cypriot state. Neither side appears ready to give in, both
are blasting the other's intransigent stance, and the
brouhaha, along with cross-Green Line bickering over
similarly testy "core" issues, threatens the improved
negotiating climate that arrived with Tassos Papadopoulos,s
February exit from power. In a nutshell, G/Cs continue to
demand the new entity be a continuation of the Republic of
Cyprus (RoC),transformed into a bi-zonal, bi-communal
federation with a strong central government and political
equality "as defined in UN resolutions" (read, no quotas on
T/C representation in government). Turkish Cypriots reject
the G/C position, preferring instead that the new Cypriot
state at the very least arise from a so-called "virgin birth:
"the instantaneous coming into being of the new state that
was stipulated in the 2004 Annan Plan. Complicating the
debate, both sides have conflated the "virgin birth"
terminology with something altogether different and
self-serving in ways that deepen each side's existing
distrust of each other. Fear of failure motivates the
positions of both communities. Should the post-solution
state collapse, G/Cs want to return to the safety of the
internationally-recognized RoC while ensuring the "TRNC"
remains a pseudostate. Turkish Cypriots, still stinging from
the 1964 UN resolution that conferred legitimacy on the
G/C-run (and T/C-less) RoC, do not want to return to pariah
status and hope a better deal now on status would ensure
their future recognition. Both communities have dug in hard
with their public positions, presenting a stiff challenge to
the working groups tackling governance and other core issues.
End Summary.

Why Pick the Low-hanging Fruit?


2. (C) March 21 saw Cypriot community leaders Mehmet Ali
Talat and Demetris Christofias agree on a process to activate
the technical committees and working groups earlier
envisioned in the July 8 (2006) Agreement. After a
not-unexpected delays due to negotiations on agendas
(successful) and terms of reference (unsuccessful),the
groups and committees began meeting a month later amidst a
feeling of cautious optimism. The UN and international
community welcomed the development and offered full support
to the process, which all hope will lead to full-fledged
reunification negotiations.


3. (C) While Embassy contacts maintain that the climate
within the committees and groups remains positive, outside
the meeting halls, the sides have returned to the blame game.
Arguments over "core" CyProb issues dominate the discourse,
with the sides blasting each other's "extreme" positions on a
continuing role for guarantor powers, the presence of Turkish
troops and "settlers" in the north, and the right of return
for refugees. No core item has generated greater friction
than the argument over the successor state's status and
sovereign roots, however, and the continued bickering over an
issue best left for last threatens the improved climate and
prospects for short-term progress.

Poles Apart: The Sides' Historical Positions


4. (SBU) Former RoC Foreign Minister Erato Marcoullis neatly
encapsulated the long-held Greek Cypriot position at a March
18 "Way Forward on Cyprus" roundtable discussion. "The
federal Republic of Cyprus," she asserted, "should be an
evolution from the unitary state established under the 1960
Agreements, the (original) Republic of Cyprus." Further,
Marcoullis claimed there was no precedent in the post-UN era
for a sovereign member-state of the United Nations to vanish
and be replaced by a new state through a so-called virgin
birth. The resulting entity should have a strong federal
government, a single international personality, political
equality based on relevant UN resolutions, loose bi-zonality,
and ensure basic human rights for all residents (in other
words, full refugee return would be guaranteed.) Such a
state would be "just, viable, and enduring," Marcoullis
concluded.


5. (SBU) Turkish Cypriots reject the notion that the unified

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Cypriot state be a continuation of the Republic of Cyprus.
In their minds, the RoC -- a partnership state founded with
political equality for both communities -- ceased to exist
once T/Cs were expelled from the government in 1964. Any new
settlement must reflect the realities on the ground: the
island is home to two peoples, two democracies, and, at the
very least, two constituent states as described in the Annan
Plan. The new entity must not simply be a reformed RoC, but
a new partnership.

Bridging the Gap: How the Annan Drafters Did It


6. (SBU) The sides' wildly differing positions on
sovereignty/status long have given international mediators
fits. During the last major push for a Cyprus solution (the
2002-04 Annan Plan talks),the UN team led by UN Special
Adviser for Cyprus Alvaro De Soto crafted a constructively
ambiguous compromise to address competing views of where
sovereignty for the new post-solution state would emanate,
which they coined the "virgin birth." The Foundation
Agreement of the 2004 Annan Plan called for "a new state of
affairs" in the form of the United Cyprus Republic (UCR)
comprising Turkish- and Greek Cypriot constituent states.
The new entity would have come into being immediately upon
approval by the Turkish- and Greek Cypriot communities in
separate, simultaneous referenda.


7. (U) David Hannay, Britain's Special Representative for
Cyprus (1996-2003),called the UCR a "politically new, but
not legally new" Cyprus. Consequently, it would have had a
new constitution, flag, and national anthem but would not
have had to re-apply for admission to the UN or other
international bodies. Likewise, the "Turkish Republic of
Northern Cyprus (TRNC)" would not have been recognized
internationally before entering into the new federation. The
1960 Treaties of Guarantee, Establishment, and Alliance would
also have remained in force. De Soto reportedly joked to
longtime Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash that the virgin
birth would have allowed the leaders of both communities to
tell their people that the RoC and "TRNC" remained in
existence.

Issue Remains the Reddest of Red Lines for Turkish Cypriots


8. (C) Almost unanimously, Turkish Cypriot leaders, both
publicly and in private conversations with Embassy staff,
reject the metamorphosis/continuation of a new and improved
RoC, and demand, at the least, an Annan-style virgin birth.
Talat's private secretary, Asim Akansoy, told us that they
were emphatic on the subject on the new state's origin.
Similarly, "governing" Republican Turkish Party (CTP) central
committee member Sami Ozuslu said that a "virgin birth" or
similar compromise was a requirement, since the T/Cs
considered the continuation of the RoC tantamount to
accepting G/C hegemony, which the populace would never
accept. A lack of progress in the preparatory phase of talks
could spawn a "crisis," Ozuslu thought. Basaran Duzgun, an
independent-minded T/C columnist, dubbed the imperative of a
virgin birth Talat's most important red line.


9. (C) Underpinning the Turkish Cypriots' demand is their
fear of an early death of the as-yet unborn post-solution
state. They still smart over what they believe was the
unfair 1964 decision by the UN (UNSCR 186) to continue to
recognize the Greek Cypriot-controlled RoC after the
ejection/departure of Turkish Cypriots from the government.
Akansoy told us that the main reason for the virgin birth "is
to not relive the events of 1964." According to the Turkish
daily Hurriyet, Talat stated that G/Cs must not be allowed
simply to return to their old state should the new
partnership fail, leaving T/Cs out in the cold. Turkish
Cypriots of almost all political stripes do not want to
become, as they see it, a "graft" on the much-larger G/C
community, much like Cyprus's Armenians, Maronites, and
Latins (Roman Catholics).

The More Virgin the Birth, the Better


10. (C) While publicly sticking to the "virgin birth"
terminology, Talat and certain CTP insiders seemingly have
redefined it away from the compromise its crafters originally
intended. Talat's special envoy, Kutlay Erk, told us and DAS
Bryza in March (Ref A) that the RoC should recognize the
"TRNC," if only for a brief period, before the creation of a
post-solution state (Note: Before Erk,s March utterance we
had only heard such comments from the nationalist National
Unity Party (UBP). The Turkish "Embassy," claimed not to

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know anything of a temporary "TRNC" recognition initiative,
however. End Note.) Akansoy also confirmed a March article
in "Hurriyet" that Talat even wants the new, post-solution
state to reapply for admission to the UN.


11. (C) The T/Cs, however, may simply be staking out
bargaining positions and may not have formed a common
position. Akansoy later told us that the virgin birth
specified in the Annan Plan was not a bad option.
Furthermore, he corrected media reports that had Talat called
for "twenty-four hour" recognition of the "TRNC," clarifying
that the T/C leader was referring to a Turkish position
during Annan negotiations that had not been accepted.

Greek Cypriots Troubled by Renewed Demands for Virgin Birth


12. (SBU) Greek Cypriot media and political leaders have
given great play, mostly negative, to Talat and Turkey's
recent demands for virgin birth or a similar arrangement.
They have denounced the concept and seem to have conflated
it, especially in nationalist outlets like leading daily
"Phileleftheros," with the demand by hard-line T/Cs for a
two-state, confederate Cyprus solution. President
Christofias complained during May Day celebrations that Talat
and Turkey were supporting a solution that would "lead the
virgin birth theory and the political equality of two
separate states," or to many G/C ears, confederation.


13. (C) Present Greek Cypriot opposition to a virgin birth
seems motivated by deep distrust of Ankara's strategic
intentions. They fear Talat's and Turkey's pronouncements on
the issue are the precursors to Turkish attempts to revisit
UNSCR 186, the RoC's EU member-state status, and even its UN
membership. Such distrust easily leads to distortion of the
original concept in the G/C press into a confederation of two
states and/or the recognition of the "illegal TRNC." Former
President Papadopoulos's memorable April 2004 comment that he
had "inherited a state" and did not "want to return two
communities" still appears to encapsulate the prevailing
opinion in the G/C community. Greek Cypriots fear that the
"virgin birth" issue will be manipulated by Turkey not as a
way to say "yes" to reunification, but rather as a tool to
destroy the RoC's current international standing and/or
effect partition.

Comment:


14. (C) The virgin birth was considered at the time of its
genesis -- not insignificantly, prior to the RoC's accession
to the EU -- as an ingenious device bridging the yawning gap
between Greek- and Turkish Cypriot positions on sovereignty.
It counted on prominent supporters in both communities,
including then-"PM" Talat and former RoC President Glafcos
Clerides. We therefore hope that the present politicking by
both sides, whether T/C calls for temporary recognition of
the "TRNC" or G/C distortion of the virgin birth compromise
as a hidden call for confederation, merely represents their
attempt to stake out initial bargaining positions and doesn't
rule out compromise on this inherently difficult issue. That
said, unless all sides are somehow able to significantly
deepen the level of trust they have in each other's
intentions, it is highly unlikely that the T/Cs will buy off
on anything less than the "virgin birth / new state of
affairs" model contained in the Annan Plan, and equally
unlikely that the G/Cs will acquiesce in what nationalist
elements consider to be something between surrender of the
RoC's political advantages and the destruction of their state.



15. (C) Conflict over core issues like sovereignty
potentially could torpedo the nascent CyProb negotiations.
Seeing the danger, UN leadership and the communities'
representatives have incorporated less controversial elements
into all the working group and technical committee agendas,
hoping to ensure that measurable progress might occur.
UNFICYP Spokesman Jose Diaz told us that their
facilitators/notetakers were paying particular attention to
documenting breakthroughs on the "low-hanging fruit."
UNFICYP even was prepared to break its own prohibition on
releasing meeting details to media, and would publicize the
sides' progress should hard-liners on either side begin to
claim that prospects for movement were hopeless. The UN's
tack seems smart to us and worthy of support.
SCHLICHER