"TRNC" WATER SUPPLY SITUATION DETERIORATING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000014

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2018
TAGS: ECON SENV CY
SUBJECT: "TRNC" WATER SUPPLY SITUATION DETERIORATING

REF: 07 NICOSIA 910

Classified By: CDA, a.i., JANE ZIMMERMAN FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)


1. (C)Summary. The ongoing drought in Cyprus is accelerating
the deterioration of the aquifers upon which the "TRNC"
depends for virtually all of its water supplies. There are a
variety of plans at various stages of development for
addressing the water supply issue, however there is no
coordination among the different projects and no overall
strategic approach. This is due both to chronic inefficiency
in the "TRNC government" and its reliance on Turkey and EU
donors (upon which they have limited influence) for
infrastructure development. If the drought persists and/or
the water supplied from aquifers runs short or becomes more
polluted, the risks to the "TRNC's" two major economic
sectors, tourism and agriculture, could be severe. End
Summary.

Aquifers Going Bad
--------------


2. (C) The "TRNC" depends on water from seven aquifers for 99
percent of its water supply. As in the Republic of Cyprus
(see reftel),the majority of water (65 percent) is used for
agriculture. In addition to water supplied to farmers from
municipalities, most farmers have their own wells which are
not regulated by the "government." A USAID contractor working
with the "TRNC" on environmental issues tells us that it is
therefore very difficult to monitor water usage levels and
the rate at which the aquifers are being depleted. Due to a
lack of information and a preponderance of hard clay soil, it
is also difficult to estimate aquifer recharge rates. What is
known is that the major aquifers are growing steadily more
brackish - the Chief of the "Water Department" said that
seawater is encroaching into the aquifer at a rate of 3 - 4
kilometers/year. Also, experts expect continuing intensive
use of fertilizers and pesticides will further contaminate
the aquifers. Currently, tap water is not considered potable
by people in most parts of the "TRNC."

A Few, Bad, Solutions
--------------


3. (C) In a meeting with "Environment and Natural Resources
Minister," Asim Vehbi, he acknowledged that "water is the
most imminent problem we face" and plans to deal with the
problem primarily by construction of desalination plants.
Currently, only one such plant has been built with a capacity
of 8000 cubic meters/day of which only 25 percent is utilized
because of a lack of pipes to transport the output. Bids for
a BOT-style project in Famagusta (a city which has had strict
water rationing for years) are due January 11. Given the low
cost to pump water from aquifers and the high cost to
desalinate, we asked one of the bidders if he had confidence
that the "government" would make good on its ten-year
contractual obligation to buy the plant's output given that
many water users currently do not pay their water bills and
the "TRNC" has perpetual budget difficulties. His response
was that "Turkish assistance" would cover any gaps. (Note:
This probably refers to the expectation that the winning bid
consortium will include entities with close ties to the
Turkish government/military and therefore have a means to
assure that Turkish assistance continues to be directed to
this project. End Note.) We also noted to the bidder that
electricity for the project is expected to be supplied from
the "TRNC" grid, even though there is barely enough
generating capacity for current consumption. Wouldn't this
necessitate on-site generation capability, thereby raising
costs of water production even higher? The bidder waived this
problem off: "whatever the cost, we will be compensated."
None of the other three mooted desalination plants are past
the talking stage.


4. (C) Other projects being considered involve increased
pumping capacity for the largest aquifer. The USAID
contractor lamented that no environmental impact assessment
has been conducted to model the outcome of such a program,
but her assumption was that increased rates of depletion
would accelerate the deterioration of aquifer water quality.
Finally, the Water Department is considering the construction
of a pipeline from a dam to be constructed near Mersin,
Turkey to supply water via a pipeline suspended (by its own
buoyancy and secured by anchors to the seabed)20 meters below
the Mediterranean's surface across the 40 kilometer strait to
Cyprus. The cost of such a major project and the use of
untried technology make this approach appear unlikely.


5. (C) Water conservation is, theoretically, a priority for

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the "TRNC" administration. However, because water prices do
not reflect the actual value of the commodity (and many
people/municipalities don't pay their water bills anyway)
price signals have proven inadequate to reduce wastage.
Farmers especially treat the water from their wells as a
cost-free input and past success in supplying water,
including reduced water rationing, has left the impression
among many city dwellers that the water supply problem is
actually improving. The "Water Department" estimates that 60
percent of water is lost due to leakage. The EU currently has
a project to replace water pipes in major cities, but work
has progressed slowly.


6. (C) Comment: Although water is scarce and growing more so,
there is no strategic plan to deal with the problem.
Proposals are made and projects undertaken by donors on an ad
hoc basis and the "Water Department" has neither the
technical skill, funds, nor bureaucratic strength to impose
an overall approach of its own. The "Environment Minister"
mainly bemoans the difficulty in "managing the bureaucracy"
and the planned reduction of his budget next year. When we
suggested that perhaps his agency could do a better job of
collecting water fees from municipalities to offset budget
cuts, he replied that this was a "political issue."
Turkish-Cypriot "officials" clearly expect donors will
somehow deal with any water problems that arise. The lack of
transparency in the use of Turkish development funds and lack
of coordination between donors, and between donors and the
"government," in the absence of any strategic and
environmental approach means that the "TRNC officials"
confidence is likely misplaced. Tourism and agriculture
combined account for around 30 percent of the "TRNC's" GDP.
Both sectors depend on consistently supplied, clean water.
The risk is increasing that soon this water will not be
available.

ZIMMERMAN