TUAREG PARLIAMENTARIAN ON THE SITUATION IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L NIAMEY 000407

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2013
TAGS: PHUM PGOV MOPS PINR NG
SUBJECT: TUAREG PARLIAMENTARIAN ON THE SITUATION IN THE
NORTH

Classified By: Donald W. Koran, CDA, reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: A Tuareg National Assemblyman sees
negotiations as the only way to end the conflict in the
north. The GON cannot defeat the MNJ militarily, and its
gross human rights violations are only making matters worse,
he stressed. End Summary.


2. (C) Tuareg National Assemblyman Bridji Raffini provided a
pessimistic assessment of the situation in the north in an
April 8 meeting with the Charge. He said that the GON may
have been right in initially labeling the MNJ bandits and
trafficker. The group was basically 2 or 3 people, who may
very well have been criminals. That criminality reflected
the failure of the GON to exercise control over the region,
which allowed the trafficking and banditry to exist. Raffini
added, however, that the MNJ does not steal from the local
population, and appears to receive financial support outside
sources. Raffini said he would have been pleased if the GON
had killed the MNJ leaders early on.


3. (C) Unfortunately, the GON did not kill the MNJ
leadership, but declared war against the Tuareg people,
according to Raffini. He recited the litany of alleged GON
human rights abuses. He said a watershed in the conflict was
the MNJ's June attack on an isolated military outpost,
resulting in considerable GON casualties, which was prompted
by the security services murder of three elderly Tuareg
civilians.


4. (C) Now the GON is incapable of achieving a military
victory. It's too easy for the MNJ to hide in the region.
Raffini said that the current GON offensive in the north
would not defeat the MNJ, but would lead to more human rights
violations against the civilian population. In addition to
killing and disappearing civilians, the security forces were
stealing and destroying property, and killing livestock. The
GON has restricted travel to the north, preventing any
independent assessment of the situation there. People
believed to be sympathetic to the MNJ were being rounded up
throughout Niger, probably based on phone intercepts.


5. (C) Raffini said the economic and humanitarian effects of
the fighting were catastrophic. Tourism is dead. The GON's
blockade of the region has stopped commerce. Farmers can't
buy fuel for their irrigation pumps. Civilians are fleeing
to Arlit and Agadez.


6. (C) Raffini confirmed press reports that he and other
National Assembly members from the north had sought to broker
an agreement last fall. They had traveled to the north
during the MNJ's Ramadan cease-fire to meet with MNJ
leadership. However, the MNJ leadership was in Algeria, and
nothing came of the effort.


7. (C) Raffini acknowledged that the GON's recent decision to
allot 15 percent of mineral revenues to the communities where
the mines are located was a very positive development, albeit
late in coming; the law providing for the allotment was
approved in 2006. Appointing more northerners to positions of
responsibility in the north would also address northern
grievances. He lamented that the rebellion might have been
averted if the GON had put as many resources in the north as
it is currently spending to fight the MNJ.


8. (C) The only solution to the conflict is negotiation,
Raffini stressed. The MNJ does not question the Nigerien
state or seek independence, so a negotiated settlement is
possible. So far, however, the GON is unwilling to
negotiate. Raffini dismissed plans for regional security
meetings as pointless.


9. (U) Minimize considered.
KORAN