WELCOME TO THE WORLD'S NEWEST DEMOCRACY: BHUTAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 NEW DELHI 000971

SIPDIS

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SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PREF PGOV PHUM PREL PINR IN BT
SUBJECT: WELCOME TO THE WORLD'S NEWEST DEMOCRACY: BHUTAN
SHIFTS TO CONSTITUTIONAL MONARCHY

REF: A. NEW DELHI 849

B. NEW DELHI 836

C. NEW DELHI 202

D. KOLKATA 376


1. (SBU) Demonstrating a strong commitment to a transition
to democracy, Bhutan went to the polls on March 24 to provide
a lop-sided victory for the Druk Pheuensum Tshogpa (DPT),one
of the two parties in contention. DPT president Jigme Y.
Thinley is expected to be sworn in as Prime Minister shortly
after the King convenes parliament on April 5. Among its
first acts, the new parliament will have to ratify the draft
constitution and to pass the country's 10th five-year plan.
The DPT landside was unexpected and seems to be related to
the Bhutanese people's discomfort with the family
connections, business practices, personality and campaign
style of the president of the People's Democratic Party
(PDP). Civil servants, who have disproportionately supported
the DPT, may have played an important role in influencing the
electorate during the waning days. The European Union
observer team identified a few shortcoming but these are mere
quibbles in a process where all international observers,
including the EU, found the elections free, fair and
transparent. Turn out was heavy at 79.4 percent. The mood of
the electorate at polling time was festive yet solemn.


2. (SBU) Bhutan's execution of such an orderly transition to
democracy offers a shining example to its neighbors on the
wisdom of choosing pluralism, tolerance and democratic values
over autocracy, intolerance and exclusion. The USG should
identify ways to support the democratic transition in Bhutan
through programs designed to build capacity of democracy
institutions. The new National Assembly will include nine
ethnic Nepalese and four women. The ethnic Nepali presence in
the National Assembly, proportionately larger than its share
of the population, is particularly heartening as it may help
heal some of the old wounds that underlie the refugee camps
in Nepal and the feeling of alienation among some ethnic
Nepali Bhutanese. It would have been preferable to have a
stronger opposition in the National Assembly to keep the new
government on its toes. It should be noted, however, that
the National Council and the king will be able to provide
checks and balances on the new government, if necessary. End
Summary.

Embrace of Democratic Ideals
--------------


3. (U) In a show of strong commitment to democratic values,
Bhutan's voters went to the polls on March 24 in record
numbers (79.4 percent turnout) to elect 47 members to the
National Assembly. The election marks the end of a crucial
phase in the transition of Bhutan from an absolute monarchy
to a democratic constitutional monarchy. Earlier, on
December 31, 2007, 53 percent of registered Bhutanese voters
had elected a National Council. Together, the National
Assembly, the National Council and the King will constitute
the new nation's Parliament, according to the country's draft
constitution.

Weighty Agenda Awaits Parliament
--------------


4. (U) The King is expected to convene Parliament on April 5
and invite the winning Druk Phesum Tshogpa (DPT) party to
form the government. Former Prime Minister and current DPT
President Jigme Y. Thinley is slated to become Prime
Minister. An important agenda awaits the new government at
the onset. Its first order of business will be to ratify the
new Constitution, which has been carefully drafted by an
expert panel of jurists who studied constitutions of at least
60 other countries to write a charter that incorporates some
of the most progressive principles of a modern nation-state,

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including separation of church and state, protection of
individual rights and other provisions to ensure a
pluralistic and tolerant democratic society. Its second order
of business will be to vote on Bhutan's 10th five-year plan,
which will embody the political, social and economic
priorities of the new government and establish the economic
roadmap for the country for the next five years. It will then
embark on the business of governing, with all powers
voluntarily divested to it by the King.

Congrats: The World's Oldest Democracy to its Youngest
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5. (U) Embassy New Delhi Pol MinCouns and Poloff visited
Bhutan on March 22-26 to witness the Bhutanese elections.
Although credentialed as "official international observers,"
the purpose of the USG officials visit was to demonstrate
support for the small, isolated country's bold transition to
into the rough and tumble of a democratic constitutional
monarchy. While in Bhutan, the USG team spoke with many news
organizations, lauding Bhutan and the Bhutanese for their
courage and fortitude in holding elections and their
commitment to democracy. The Department Spokesman's March 24
statement congratulating Bhutan on its elections received
wide media coverage both within the country and on
international news channels.

Domestic and International Media in Full Force
-------------- -


6. (U) The USG team joined a host of other international
observers, including those from the European Commission,
Canada, Australia, Japan and several other western countries.
Reflecting the close interest and support of the GOI in the
democratic process unfolding in its neighbor, the GOI sent a
high level delegation led by its Chief Election Commissioner
and including Special Envoy Shyam Saran and former Foreign
Secretary Salman Haider. The domestic and international

SIPDIS
media presence at the elections was extensive with the Bhutan
press, BBC, Reuters, AFP and other international and regional
news services providing wide coverage. There were numerous
Indian news services in Bhutan to cover the elections.

DPT in a Landslide
--------------


7. (SBU) In a startling surprise, the DPT won the election
in a landslide, bagging 45 on the 47 contents. Government
officials, international observers as well as the Bhutanese
people were stunned by the lopsided results. Many People's
Democratic Party (PDP) candidates considered invincible,
including former Prime Minister and party president Sangay
Ngedup, fell to crushing defeats. In the days preceding the
polls, the consensus opinion of most observers was that the
election was too close to call and, even if one side or the
other did unexpectedly well, less than 10 seats would
separate the winner from the loser. (Comment: In the days
following the election, the PDP has protested the election
results, alleging that some candidates from the victorious
DPT had broken election rules by campaigning within 48 hours
of the opening of polls. The USG observer team has no way of
ascertaining the veracity of the claim. We expect the
extremely independent and impartial Election Commission of
Bhutan will examine the charge. We would not be surprised,
however, if the PDP charge is merely a gambit by the PDP to
save face after its crushing defeat. End Comment.)

Interpreting the Results
--------------


8. (SBU) From extensive consultation with a wide
cross-section of Bhutanese government officials, journalists,
international observers, diplomats and international aid

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officials, the USG team gleaned several reasons behind the
Bhutanese electorate's unequivocal rejection of the PDP.
First and foremost, is the deep discomfort that the Bhutanese
people felt over the business practices of the Fourth King's
in-laws. PDP President Sangay Ngedup is the brother of the
Fourth King's wives. Ngedup's father - the Fourth King's
father-in-law and the Fifth King's maternal grandfather --
has earned a reputation as someone who used his proximity to
the king to amass a fortune through sometimes questionable
tactics. The Bhutanese appear to have repudiated Ngedup and
his party for fear that if he became Prime Minister, it would
further concentrate political and economic power in and
around one family. In this context several interlocutors
noted that one of the most popular decisions of the Fifth
King in his short reign to date was his 2007 decree to
terminate his grandfather's monopoly on sand and stone mining
and trading. The decision resulted in a 20 percent drop in
the cost of construction material and accounted, in part, for
the construction boom in Thimphu, Paro and other urban areas.
Beyond the economic benefits accruing to the average
Bhutanese from this decision, it was also seen as a signal
that the new king would rein in his father's in-laws.


9. (SBU) Another reason behind the PDP's defeat is that the
Bhutanese appear to have voted for continuity and the old
ways instead of change and a new direction. Rightly or
wrongly, the PDP became seen as the party of change while the
DPT was perceived as a party of continuity. In reality there
is little ideological difference between the two parties and
both have manifestos firmly grounded in the Fourth King's
concept of Gross National Happiness and its four pillars of
equitable and sustainable socio economic development,
environmental conservation, preservation of culture and good
governance. However, the DPT with many more ex-civil
servants and ex-Ministers in its ranks and a more restrained
campaign style has become increasingly viewed as the party of
the status quo while the PDP has been seen as more open to
change. The Bhutanese people, although they voted
enthusiastically and in high numbers, have been reluctant
converts to democracy. Many have questioned the advisability
of a change in course when the system has served the country
well for over a hundred years. The Fourth King, however, has
been firm in his pursuit of a constitutional monarchy and in
pulling the Bhutanese people along with him. In such an
environment, it would not be surprising to see the Bhutanese
vote for continuity and the DPT.


10. (SBU) Thirdly, the personality of the PDP president and
the party's campaign style has worked against the party's
candidates. Bhutanese culture appears to encourage
non-confrontational, reticent, consensus-seeking, modest and
self-effacing political personalities. The DPT party
president's brasher, more adversarial personality and the
party's louder campaign style may have struck many voters as
"un-Bhutanese," causing them to turn to the DPT.
Unfortunately for the PDP, the personality of the party
president overshadowed the candidates, many of whom would
have won on their own but lost because the voters appear to
have cast their ballot based on their view about the parties
and the man at the top of the ticket rather than about the
individual candidates.


11. (SBU) Finally, it appears that civil servants may have
played an important last-minute role in tipping the vote
against the PDP. Both parties conceded that civil servants
and government employees disproportionately supported the
DPT. Many of these civil servants, going home to vote at
their ancestral village or hamlet, fanned out across Bhutan
in the last few days before the poll. Analysts argue that
these civil servants, who command considerable respect in
rural Bhutan, helped sway the vote for the DPT in the closing
stretch. This view is supported by the fact Thimphu was
almost a deserted town on election day because of the exodus

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of people going home to their permanent place of residence to
vote. By one account Thimphu's population of nearly 100,000
had shrunk to 14,000 on election day as the balance of the
people went home to vote.

Free, Fair, Peaceful, Transparent
--------------


12. (SBU) International observers unanimously assessed the
election process as free, free and transparent. Although in
the days leading up to the election there had been a handful
of isolated incidents intended but failing to disrupt the
process, election day was entirely peaceful without a single
incident reported. The USG team was impressed by how smooth
the process appeared to be. Procedures and rules were
uniform across polling booths. Polling officials, who
appeared to be well-trained, were efficient and
knowledgeable. Security at each booth was tight but not
intrusive. The dissemination of the results up the line was
quick and efficient, although one telephonic misunderstanding
caused an error of 200 votes which forced the Election
Commission of Bhutan (ECB) to reverse the results of one race
a day after the election.


13. (U) The EU Election Observation Mission was by far the
largest and most rigorous observer team. The EU mission had
been on the ground since February 22 and had deployed over 15
observers. The EU mission reported that the election process
generally met international standards. The legal framework
provided a solid foundation and the election administration
carried out its tasks efficiently. The EU mission further
noted that the election allowed for genuine competition
between the two parties, the election rolls were accurate,
and the Election Commission did an impressive job of
preparing for the election in a country with many logistical
challenges and little experience in conduction elections.
The EU team also found some weaknesses: the party platforms
were similar, leaving voters to choose between personalities
rather than policy differences; the parties complained that
the Election Commission was too strict in applying its
authority; candidates were prohibited from discussing
security and citizenship issues; NGOs and other civil society
organizations were prohibited from engaging in election
activities, which limited the information available to the
voters; there were only two parties in the fray, which
limited the choice available.

The Numbers: Heavy Turnout
--------------


14. (U) As expected, election turnout was heavy, with 79.4
percent of the 318,365 registered voters going to the polls,
a vast improvement on the 53 percent turnout at the December
31 elections for the National Council. They voted at 865
polling booths in 47 constituencies for 94 candidates from
two parties - the Druk Phuensum Tshionga (DPT) and the
People's Democratic Party (PDP).

Calm, Orderly, Brisk Process
--------------


15. (U) The USG team visited 7 polling booths on election
day in the capital, Thimphu, the second city and ancient
capital of Bhutan, Punakha, and several remote rural areas.
Polling was heavy, orderly and extremely organized. Without
exception, each polling booth had: a presiding officer who
exerted overall command of the process; one party
representative from each of the parties contesting; three
polling officers who processed the voters; a table for
international observers; and a contingent of security
officers and ECB officials who controlled the polling area by
directing traffic in and out of the polling booth and
frisking each voter before allowing him/her into the booth.

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16. (U) Inside the polling booth, the first polling officer
cross-checked the voter's photo ID card voter against the
voter registration rolls. The second polling officer then
entered the name chronologically into a second register, had
the voter sign (or plant a fingerprint) against it and marked
the voter's right index finger with indelible ink. The third
polling officer then activated the electronic voting machine,
located behind a partition as the voter stepped behind the
partition to vote. The voting machine identified the
candidates by name, photo, and party election symbols - the
wind horse for the PDP and the black necked crane for the
DPT. After the vote was cast, the presiding officer then
handed the voter a "I have Voted" lapel pin, which most
voters proudly donned after they had cast their votes. The
presiding officer permitted aged or handicapped voters to
bring along one family member into the booth to assist them
with the process.


17. (U) By 9:30 am on the morning of March 24, each polling
booth had two long lines outside it, one for women one for
men. The voters waited patiently for their turn, socializing
with each other. Towards the afternoon the lines had thinned
out, with only a few stragglers showing up to vote. The USG
team saw a balanced and well representative turnout of voters
by age and sex. Women appeared to slightly outnumber men at
the polling sites visited by the USG team. There appeared be
as many elderly voters as 18-30 year olds in the voting
lines.

Swift Announcement of Results
--------------


18. (U) Elections results began to trickle in at about two
hours after polls closed at 5 pm. All results had been
announced by 9 pm. Once polls closed at 5 pm, the presiding
officer at every polling booth documented the poll data --
number of votes cast for each candidate -- in the presence of
the representatives from the two parties and telephoned the
results to the district polling officer at district
headquarters. The district polling officers tabulated the
results from each polling booth in their constituency and
then telephoned and faxed the results to the control center
at the Election Commission of Bhutan office in Thimphu. USG
observers watched as election officials at the control center
recorded the results for each constituency electronically and
on hardcopy. Runners then conveyed the results as they
dribbled in to the Bhutan Broadcasting Service booth outside
the control room, where television anchors announced the
results with analysis and commentary. Media milled about the
Election Commission premises interviewing government
officials, election observers, bystanders and each other.

Festive Yet Solemn Mood
--------------


19. (U) The atmosphere at the polling stations was cheerful,
with people donning their best clothes to stand in line for
long periods. At several polling stations outside of
Thimphu, voters had brought along children and other family
members, who picnicked in the lawns outside the polling
stations. While cheerful and celebratory, there was also an
underlying note of solemnity in the proceeding as if the
voters were aware that they were participating in a historic
event. At one polling booth, family members were trying to
comfort an elderly woman who was overcome with the emotion at
the significance of casting her vote.

Comment: Lesson for Rest for the World
--------------


20. (SBU) By successfully executing free and fair elections,
first to the National Council in December and then the

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National Assembly in March, Bhutan is charting a brave new
course for itself. It is doing this despite the reluctance
of many Bhutanese to change a system that has lifted it from
the lowest per capita income country in South Asia to the
highest in a short span of time. It is also going firmly
down this road despite security threats by some
Maoist/Communist groups. In a region where democracy has a
checkered history and democratic institutions have had
difficulty taking root, Bhutan offers a shining example to
its near and far neighbors on the wisdom of choosing
pluralism, tolerance and democratic values over autocracy,
intolerance and exclusion. The USG should identify funding
that may be used to support the democratic transition in
Bhutan through programs designed to build capacity within
institutions of democracy.

Comment: Protecting Sovereignty
--------------


21. (SBU) The Bhutanese people and Bhutan watchers have long
puzzled at the Fourth King's insistence on transitioning from
a absolute monarchy to a constitutional democracy despite the
reservations of many Bhutanese. The Fourth King's former
tutor and confidante Michael Rutland agreed with POL
MinCouns's suggestion that the King may view Bhutan's
conversion to a full democracy as an inoculation against
threats to its sovereignty from its two huge neighbors. In
the face of an external threat, a democratic Bhutan is much
more likely to elicit international support that a Bhutan
that is the property of an absolute monarch. Rutland also
observed that, historically, constitutional monarchies have
proven more durable than absolute monarchies.


Comment: Strong Minority Representation
--------------


22. (SBU) The new National Assembly will include nine ethnic
Nepalese and four women. This representation will over time
help empower both of these groups. At least one woman and
one, possibly more, ethnic Nepalese are expected to join the
10-member cabinet that will be formed this month. The ethnic
Nepali presence in the National Assembly, proportionately
larger that their share of the population, is particularly
heartening as it may help heal some of the old wounds that
underlie the refugee camps in Nepal and the feeling of
alienation among some ethnic Nepali Bhutanese.

Comment: A Fumble?
--------------


23. (SBU) Many observers have argued that the lopsided
victory of one party does not bode well for democratic
institutions taking root in the fledgling democracy. They
contend that the absence of a vigorous opposition in the
National Assembly will hinder democratic debate and lead to
weaker foundations of democracy. It would no doubt have been
preferable to have a strong opposition in place to keep the
new government on its toes. We note, however, that in
addition to the two PDP members in the National Assembly, the
Bhutan Parliament also includes a 25-member National Council
and the King, both of which should serve to place checks and
balances on the government if it shows a propensity to run
roughshod due to its overwhelming majority.
WHITE