FS MENON PESSIMISTIC ON TIBET AND PAKISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000934

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR TIBET COORDINATOR DOBRIANSKY
NSC FOR HADLEY/ABRAMS
H PASS TO SPEAKER PELOSI, REPRESENTATIVES MARKEY,
MCDERMOTT, MILLER, SENSENBRENNER, INSLEE, HOLMES-NORTON,
SOLIS, ESHOO AND HOLT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR ETRD EINV MNUC PARM IN CH PK
SUBJECT: FS MENON PESSIMISTIC ON TIBET AND PAKISTAN


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Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon told the
Ambassador March 31 that he expected elements of the Tibetan
community to become more independent of the Dalai Lama's
moderate line the longer they reside in India's "free and
open society." He asserted that India would have no problem
with any attempts by the U.S. to resettle Tibetan refugees
currently in India, and he noted that the government could
issue Indian re-entry permits which would allow Tibetan
refugees to return to India. The Ambassador asked about
Menon's thoughts regarding political developments in
Pakistan. Menon said that the UPA government will reach out
to the new government after the swearing-in ceremony, but he
highlighted two concerns. He worried that President
Musharraf would not allow the new government to take credit
for the progress that India and Pakistan made in
confidence-building measures, and he wondered whether the new
leadership even has the capacity to complete those steps. He
also observed that jihadis have increased their activities,
and he worried about the temptation for the new government to
incite external conflicts to increase its popularity. End
Summary.

Menon Sees Tibetan Protests As a Long-Term Problem
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2. (C) In a March 31 meeting with Foreign Secretary
Shivshankar Menon, the Ambassador related that he met with
the Dalai Lama March 28, during which the Dalai Lama
articulated his grievances with the Chinese government. The
Ambassador asked Menon about the 40 Tibetan prisoners that
remain in Delhi jails. Menon assured him that the Indian
government would free all the old prisoners, of which seven
remained, and would soon release the newly arrested
protesters as well. Referring to the barbed wire and
barricades placed around the Chinese Embassy last week, Menon
observed that "the Chinese are now locked in jail themselves."


3. (C) Menon stated that the sentiment of Indians "lies
clearly on the side of Tibet." "As a democracy, we allow
Tibetans to express themselves, so long as they do not break
the law," he assured the Ambassador. Menon reiterated that
India's stated policy is to "provide a space for which the
Tibetan culture and religion is safe." But Menon foresaw a
long-term problem in which segments of the Tibetan community,
while continuing to respect the Dalai Lama, diverge in their
thinking. "They have lived in the free and open society of
India," Menon observed, "and they believe that they have
rights." He wondered about the effect of continued protests,
since Han Chinese already outnumbered ethnic Tibetans in
Lhasa, and would soon dominate the region. "There is no
existential threat to Chinese control over Tibet today," he

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stated, "and I'm not sure China is in any mood to give up."
He conceded that he was not sure what the Indian government
could do "beyond asking Tibet and China to talk to each
other."

Menon Has No Problem With Resettling Refugees in U.S.
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4. (C) The Ambassador recounted that the Dalai Lama had
pleaded with the congressional delegation led by Speaker
Nancy Pelosi to resettle 2,000 Tibetan refugees currently
residing in India in the U.S. Menon responded, "we have
always said that they're free to leave if they want." He
related that Tibetans who leave India have sought "No
Objection to Return to India (NORI) certificates" from the
Indian government, which allows them to return to India "like
a re-entry visa." Menon asserted that the Indian government
stands ready to issue such certificates for those refugees
who have lived in India for some time, but might have trouble
issuing such paperwork for recent arrivals. Menon also
stated that the Indian government would have no problem with
Tibetan refugees transiting through India from Nepal to the
U.S., although he noted that they would not receive the NORI
certificates. "We would be happy to help in any way we can,"
he assured the Ambassador.

Menon Worried About New Pakistan Government
- - -


5. (C) The Ambassador asked for Menon's thoughts on the new
government in Pakistan. Menon contended that "the new system
was trying to figure itself out," but he offered that the
Indian government would reach out after today's swearing-in
ceremony. After hearing Nawaz Sharif declare that the new
government would review all actions taken by its predecessor,
he worried that Prime Minister Gillani's government would
lack the capacity to continue President Musharraf's efforts
to build confidence-building measures. Moreover, he
cautioned that President Musharraf himself might not "allow
someone else to take credit for all our hard work with him."


6. (C) Menon also expressed anxiety about the rise of jihadis
in the past two months which, he thought, stemmed from a
process begun by the earthquake relief camps set up by
terrorist groups in December 2005. Those camps established
linkages between Al Qaeda and the Taliban, which then fed
into Punjab groups, particular Jaish-e-Muhammad, he
explained. Menon related that a former Chief Secretary told
him that the March 3 Lahore bombing may have involved a
Kashmiri group. The ramped up terrorist activity has raised
suspicion in India, he continued. "The first temptation for
a new government is to make peace inside, and go to war
outside," he cautioned, adding that Nawaz Sharif had followed

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such a path. The new government's approach to the Kashmir
issue has also aggravated anxiety in India, he noted. Still,
the Indian government planned to keep its head "low and slow
while the government finds its level."

Comment: Troubled Neighbors Cause India Grief
- - -


7. (C) India has never lived in a quiet neighborhood, and the
external difficulties in Tibet, China and Pakistan have
compounded India's internal problems. While India continues
to attempt to enhance its economic relationship with China,
it must also manage Tibetans and Indians who strongly support
the Dalai Lama and an autonomous Tibet. As Menon warns, the
internal pressure to support Tibet will only increase. As
for Pakistan, the Indian government remains determined to
avoid becoming a political issue, despite the recent spike in
terrorist incidents that, Menon claimed, have roots in a
troubled political environment. A greater increase in
attacks, however, will severely test an Indian government
that will face a tough test from the political opposition as
general elections approach.
MULFORD