INDIA WELCOMES GILANI'S INAUGURATION, ANTICIPATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 000888

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PTER PBTS PK IN
SUBJECT: INDIA WELCOMES GILANI'S INAUGURATION, ANTICIPATES
HIS DEMISE, BLASTS PAKISTAN'S ISI

REF: NEW DELHI 00542

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Singh warmly congratulated
the new Pakistani Prime Minister, Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani,
on the occasion of his taking office March 25 and expressed
GOI optimism that Indo-Pakistani ties will improve.
Kashmiri politicians expressed similar optimism for
Gilani's tenure, especially regarding the prospect for a
resolution of the Kashmiri issue. Indian security
officials have not changed their assessment of Pakistan as
a major threat to Indian domestic security and an active
exporter of terrorist activity, with NSA Narayanan spoiling
the bonhomie by taking public potshots at the Pakistani
intelligence service for continuing to groom the
Lashkar-e-Tayiba and the Jaish-e-Muhammad to target India.
Indian analysts cast doubt upon Gilani's chances for
surviving politically, predicting challenges from within
his party, in the form of Asif Zardari and Amin Faheem and
a possible showdown with President Musharraf. Despite
Narayanan's grumpiness, likely sparked by two recent
terrorist attacks in Srinigar, the Pakistan National Day
reception was a very well-attended and glittering affair,
with everyone from the RSS to Kashmiri separatists enjoying
fruit juice and kabob on the lawns of the High Commission.
The reception, and India's unusual year of public restraint
in complicating matters for the Pakistanis, shows that even
this relationship is starting to become normal. End Summary

-- INDIA WELCOMES GILANI --


2. (C) Prime Minister Singh warmly congratulated the new
Pakistani Prime Minister, Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, on the
occasion of his taking office March 25. Singh sent a
letter to Gilani in which he stated that India sees "a
stable, prosperous and democratic Pakistan as being in the
interest of India and the region" and expressed his desire
to work closely together with Gilani to raise
Indo-Pakistani relations to its "best ever" level. MEA
Deputy Secretary G. Balasubramaniam (Pakistan) told Poloff
on March 26, "India has made all the rights noises to
Pakistan, and we expect an echo back." The many Delhiites
who hail from Multan, including one Supreme Court lawyer
who founded a society for Multanis in India and in the
U.S., told DepPolCouns (who is part Multani) at the
Pakistan National Day reception that they were overjoyed
that a Multani had become Prime Minister, saying it was a
victory for "one of us."

-- BUT SECURITY OFFICIALS REMAIN ALERT --


3. (C) The Indian security apparatus has warned publicly
that despite the breath of fresh air in the bilateral
relationship as a result of Gilani's selection, it still
sees Pakistan as a source of terrorist activity aimed at
India. At a March 26 lecture in New Delhi National
Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan stated "Attacks on India
from the soil of Pakistan will continue" and "we see no
change in the attitude of ISI (the Pakistani Inter-Services
Agency) to mentor terrorist activities of (known terrorist
groups)." A paper released by the Indian Home Ministry on
March 26 reinforced Narayanan's statements, claiming that
terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied
Kashmir remains largely intact and continues to be used by
ISI-sponsored terrorist groups in carrying out terror
attacks inside India. We speculate that Narayanan's
undiplomatic remarks, which broke the Indian rule of
avoiding saying anything bad in public for fear of
destabilizing Pakistan at a delicate juncture, were the
result of security service unhappiness about a recent car
bombing and shootout in Srinigar after many months of calm.

-- KASHMIRI LEADERS EXPRESS OPTIMISM --


4. (U) Both the current chief minister Ghulab Nabi Azad and
former chief minister Mufti Muhammad Sayeed of Jammu and
Kashmir (J & K) expressed in press statements optimism that
Gilani's appointment has ended much of the domestic
political uncertainty in Pakistan and will reinvigorate the
Indo-Pakistani peace dialogue, with positive implications
for the people of J & K. The Kashmiri Hurriyat Conference
faction, led by Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, added that Pakistan's
stability and J & K's well-being were "inter-reliant."

-- PUNDITS SEE DIFFICULTIES FOR GILANI --


5. (U) New Delhi editorialists predict an uphill battle for
Gilani, both in the job of stabilizing Pakistan and to
remain in power. Noting Gilani's decision to free
imprisoned judges who have been vociferously critical of
Musharraf, some Indian media observers expect that this may
bring the new Prime Minister into direct confrontation with
Musharraf, with some anticipating Gilani will go as far as
initiating impeachment proceedings against the President,
provoking an all-out political Gotterdammerung. Other
analysts predict that regardless of a potential showdown
with Musharraf, Gilani will soon face another battle within
his own party, in the shape of a challenge either from
Faheem, who some speculate bears a grudge for being passed
over as PM and may be plotting a revolt, or from Asif
Zardari, assuming he succeeds in gaining a parliamentary
seat in a by-election and thereby position himself to
challenge Gilani for the Prime Minister's chair.

-- BILATERAL DIALOGUE TO INTENSIFY --


6. (C) GOI contacts have been telling Post for several
months that the Indian government expects several tracks of
bilateral dialogue to resume once political stability has
returned to Pakistan. In the coming weeks, Foreign
Secretary Menon is expected to travel to Islamabad to

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resume the Composite Dialogue process, to be followed by a
visit by External Affairs Minister Mukherjee. GOI sources
have told the media that these visits are likely to prepare
the ground for high-level political dialogue and a
possible, oft-delayed state visit by Prime Minister Singh.

-- COMMENT: INDIA PUBLICLY HOPES FOR BEST, PRIVATELY
PREPARES FOR THE WORST --


7. (C) COMMENT: The GOI's public reaction to Gilani's
appointment was effusively optimistic and welcoming, but
this does not reflect bonhomie as much as realpolitik. The
GOI has little other option but to make encouraging noises
as Pakistan attempts to right itself, with hope that
bilateral relations will continue on the positive path set
in recent years. India's chattering class is skeptical in
its public statements, expressing guarded praise for
Pakistan's movement towards a democratically elected
government, but harboring deep doubts that the government
can long stand, seeing threats both from within - Zardari
and Faheem - and without, from Musharraf, the willful Chief
Justices, and possibly Nawaz Sharif. Regardless of how
Pakistani politics plays out, New Delhi appears eager to
stay away from provoking any problems for the Pakistani
government, even as it moves ahead with the Composite
Dialogue and, it hopes, works to enhance the generally
stable relationship for which Musharraf can take much
credit. One sign that relations with Islamabad are veering
towards normalcy was the well-attended Pakistan National
Day reception. In stark contrast to years past, a healthy
slice of Delhi's elite - from the right wing Hindu RSS to
the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front - strolled the
manicured gardens, enjoying rib-tickling jokes with their
Pakistani hosts and generally saying to one and all that
this was their national day, too, since so many of the
invited guests trace their ancestry to what is now
Pakistan. END COMMENT.

MULFORD