INTERNAL MIGRATION POSES DAUNTING CHALLENGE FOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000739

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON PGOV PHUM PREL PREF PINR PINS PROP SOCI
SMIG, IN
SUBJECT: INTERNAL MIGRATION POSES DAUNTING CHALLENGE FOR
INDIA

REF: MUMBAI 40

NEW DELHI 00000739 001.2 OF 003



1. (U) Summary: A skirmish last week in Parliament
underscored a grave challenge facing India in the coming
years: large internal migrations caused by the widening gap
between successful states and failed states. This
displacement of people has the potential for significant
political, economic and social ramifications. One symptom of
this emerging challenge played out over the last six weeks in
Maharashtra, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh (UP) and most recently,
Delhi. On March 5, over a dozen Members of Parliament (MP)
cut across party lines to disrupt parliamentary business and
demand that Parliament take action to punish Shiv Sena chief
Bal Thackeray for unleashing a volley of abusive attacks on
MPs from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The Bal Thackeray attack
and the MPs' response is the latest in a battle that began in
February when supporters of Raj Thackeray (Bal's nephew and
head of a rival Maharashtra-based political party) targeted
and physically assaulted migrants from Bihar and Uttar
Pradesh. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government
has shied away from direct involvement on the issue, with the
Home Affairs Minister saying that the GOI has asked the
Maharashtra government to take action.


2. (U) The disparity in standards of living, quality of
life and economic opportunity between regions and states in
India is stark and accelerating. As workers and their
families flock to the flourishing states, they are placing
heavy pressure on the already stretched infrastructure and
public services, especially in urban areas which absorb most
of the migrants. We would not be surprised to see more of
these "native-soil" backlashes similar to Maharashtra's in
other parts of the country during the coming years if India
does not find a way to spread the benefits of economic
development more evenly between the regions. Better
governance in the distressed states would go a long way in
attracting investment and creating jobs, thus reducing the
lure of migration and the pressure of rapid urbanization.
End Summary.

Uproar in Parliament Over Thackeray Comments
--------------


3. (U) Sixteen angry MPs from Bihar and UP disrupted
business in the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) on
March 5, demanding action against Shiv Sena chief Bal
Thackeray. The MPs insisted that Parliament initiate "breach
of privilege proceedings" against Thackeray for his attacks
on MPs who had earlier raised concern in Parliament about
violence in Maharashtra against migrants from Bihar and Uttar
Pradesh. Cutting across party lines, the protesting MPs
belonged to the Rashtriya Janata Party, the Samajwadi Party
(SP) and the Janata Dal (U).


4. (U) The demands of the MPs were triggered by abusive
statements by Thackeray in the Shiv Sena magazine Saamna. He
accused Bihari MPs of "spitting in the same plate from which
they ate" by criticizing Maharashtrians. Excerpts from
Thackeray's piece include: "(Biharis) are not wanted in
southern India, Assam and also Punjab and Chandigarh. (They)
are a burden in many parts of the country. (They) antagonize
local populations wherever they have settled. The UP-Bihari
MPs have shown their ingratitude...with an anti-Marathi
tirade in Parliament." Thackeray attacked Railway Minister
Lalu Prasad Yadav saying those who have ruined Bihar should
not be trying to teach nationalism to Maharashtrians." He
also referred to Bihar MP Prabhunath Singh as a murderer who
should be in jail.


5. (U) The skirmish between MPs in Delhi and Thackeray in
Maharashtra is the latest in a confrontation that broke out
in February when supporters of Bal Thackeray's estranged
nephew Raj Thackeray clashed with SP workers and targeted
migrants from Bihar and UP in Mumbai (Ref A). Raj Thackeray
attempted to consolidate support for his break-away
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) by cashing in on local
resentment against migrants from Bihar and UP and

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irresponsible statements by a Mumbai-based SP leader.

Nitish Kumar Joins the Fray
--------------


6. (U) Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar strongly protested
the goings on in Maharashtra and the statements by Thackeray.
He demanded that the UPA government act immediately to
"protect the country's interests." He warned that the
failure of the UPA government to intervene would indicate the
Congress Party had become complicit in creating a hostile
environment in Maharashtra. For his part, Thackeray had
praised Nitish Kumar while slamming Bihar still harder when
he was quoted as saying that Nitish Kumar is an honest and
hardworking person, "who is not allowed to work by the pigs
of hell."

Congress Party Tries to Duck the Controversy
--------------


7. (SBU) Home Minister Shivraj Patil, speaking in Parliament
a day before the Bal Thackeray salvo, noted lamely that the
UPA government disapproves of the violence in Maharashtra and
had asked the state government to take action. Maharashtra
Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh evaded the issue, saying in
Delhi on March 5 that his government is seeking legal opinion
on whether it can begin proceedings against Bal Thackeray and
Saamna.

Breach of Privilege Proceedings
--------------


8. (U) Speaker Somnath Chatterjee told Parliament that he
takes the matter very seriously and "any comment on our
members...we (will) treat with the contempt that it
deserves...and action that may be necessary will be taken
according to procedure...and norms". He assured the
parliament that "certainly no one will be spared." Breach of
privilege proceedings can be requested by a member of
parliament who feels falsely accused by anyone of fraud or
misdeed in the conducts of his/her parliamentary functions
and duties. If the speaker believes there may be reasonable
grounds for breach of privilege proceedings, he will
constitute a parliamentary committee to hear the matter
according to established rules. The parliamentary committee
has full judicial authority to examine the case, summon
witnesses and pass judgment, including imposing any sentences
it wishes.

Comment: Breach of Privilege Determination Unlikely
-------------- --------------


9. (SBU) It is unlikely that the speaker will rule that
there are reasonable grounds for establishing a breach of
privileges committee. The UPA government will want to tread
lightly on this issue because of its combustibility. The
Congress Party is not displeased, however, with the
escalation that is taking place on many sides of this matter.
An Embassy contact suggested that the Congress Party, in
trouble in Maharashtra in the run-up to national elections,
had encouraged Raj Thackeray to take up the battle against
migrants because it would draw support away from Bal
Thackeray's Shiv Sena, a long-time Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP)-ally. Bal Thackeray's own inflammatory language may be
an effort to hold on to the Maratha-chauvinism vote by
outdoing his nephew at his own game.

Comment: Grave Underlying Challenge
--------------


10. (SBU) The Maharashtra backlash against migrants and the
events that unfolded after Raj Thackeray's supporters
targeted people from Bihar and UP are symptoms of a much
deeper challenge facing India: the large internal migrations
being induced by the accelerating economic, social and
governance disparity between successful states and the failed
states of the country. Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Karnataka,

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Maharashtra, Punjab and Haryana are pulling away from states
like Bihar, UP and Orissa in all the important economic and
social sector indicators. The widening gaps between the have
and have-not regions are causing people to move, particularly
to the urban areas in the flourishing states. This, in turn,
is placing heavy pressure on the already stretched and
inadequate infrastructure and health, education and other
public services in the urban areas. It also brings with it
lower wages, urban sprawl, shanty towns, slums and higher
crime.


11. (SBU) We would not be surprised to see more of these
"native-soil" backlashes in other parts of the country during
the coming years if India does not find a way to spread the
benefits of economic development more evenly between the
regions. Local and regional politicians will find it hard to
resist harnessing the discomfort and unease of the local
population against the migrants. The internal displacement
of people will have profound political, economic and social
ramifications in the years to come. Better governance in the
distressed states would go a long way toward attracting
investment and creating jobs, thus reducing the lure of
migration and the pressure of rapid urbanization. End
Comment.
MULFORD