INDIA LAUNCHES A NEW SALVO IN ASIAN MISSILE RACE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000731

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KPRP MCAP MNUC PARM XD XF XE IN CH PK
SUBJECT: INDIA LAUNCHES A NEW SALVO IN ASIAN MISSILE RACE

REF: A. SECSTATE 20964

B. NEW DELHI 04767

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius, for reasons 1.4 (a, b, d)


1. (S/NF) (NOTE: This cable is intended in part to fulfill
reporting requirements outlined in SECSTATE 20964. END
NOTE.) SUMMARY: India successfully test-fired an
indigenously-designed submerged ballistic missile on
February 26, signaling its intent and eventual capability
to launch submarine-based nuclear missiles. Pakistan's
Naval Chief publicly protested the test, claiming that
India's actions would provoke a new arms-race in South
Asia. Both India and Pakistan have spurred forward with
their indigenous missile production organizations during
the past twelve months with visibly different aims.
Pakistan has busily conducted multiple tests of its
medium-ranged missile strike force with an eye towards
deterring India, while India has instead focused on
developing missile defense systems, long-range strikes, and
sea-based missile strikes. India clearly has a more remote
and formidable threat than Pakistan in its sights, judging
by the thrust of work in its strategic strike capability.
END SUMMARY


2. (S/NF) India successfully launched a missile designated
the Sagirika K-15 on February 26 from a submerged pontoon
simulating a submarine. Indian media described the missile
as a two-stage, solid-propellant weapon weighing seven tons
with a payload capacity of 500 to 600 kg, 6.5 meters in
length, and having a range of 700 km. India's
state-operated Defense Research and Development
Organization (DRDO) praised the test as proof that India
now has capability to launch nuclear-tipped missiles from
land, sea and air. The DRDO announced its intentions to
install the Sagirika missiles onto a submarine as soon
possible. The first vessels to be fitted could be
French-designed Scorpene or Russian-designed Akula
submarines. Indian scientists have been working in secret
for more than 20 years on an indigenous nuclear-powered
submarine, the so-called Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV),
and the MOD confirmed in late 2007 that its first
operational test-cruise is scheduled for 2009. Pakistan's
Naval Chief Admiral Tahir publicly protested the K-15 test,
noting to press this "is going to start a new arms race in
the region - this is a very serious issue."


3. (S/NF) India and Pakistan signed an agreement in 2005
detailing protocols for conducting non-hostile ballistic
missile tests, including a requirement to notify each
other's government in advance of any live-fire test.
Between August 2007 and February 2008, Islamabad availed
itself of this protocol on at least five separate
occasions, launching live-fire tests of nearly all of its
known strategic missile arsenal, including:

-- August 2007: the 350 km-range "Ra-ad" (Hatf 8)
air-launched cruise missile
-- December 2007: the 700 km-range "Babur" (Hatf 7) cruise
missile
-- January 2008: the 700 km-range "Shaheen 1" (Hatf 4)
ballistic missile
-- February 2008: the 1,300 km-range "Gauri" (Hatf 5)
ballistic missile
-- February 2008: the 300 km-range "Ghaznavi" (Hatf 3)
ballistic missile


4. (S/NF) During the same time period, New Delhi conducted
live-fire tests of a number of ballistic missiles,
including:

-- August 2007: the 3000 km-range Agni 3 ballistic missile
-- October 2007: the 700 km-range Agni 1 ballistic missile
-- February 2008: the 700 km-range "Sagirika" (K-15)
submerged-launch ballistic missile (SLBM)
-- March 2008: the 290 km-range "Brahmos" cruise missile,

NEW DELHI 00000731 002 OF 002


sea-to-land test


India conducted live-fire tests of indigenously-designed
missile-defense missiles, one in December 2006 and the
second type in December 2007. These missiles, modified
versions of the short-range Indian Prithvi ballistic
missile, were test-fired to intercept live ballistic
missiles simulating incoming enemy missiles. The DRDO
publicly announced January 2007 its intentions to
test-launch a so-called "Agni 4" ballistic missile with a
reported range of 5000+ km sometime in 2008.

COMMENT: INDIAN CLAIMS OF MISSILE PROWESS ARE PREMATURE


5. (S/NF) BEGIN COMMENT: The Indian press and DRDO boasted
that the K-15 test places India firmly in the exclusive
club of nations (the U.S., Russia, France and China) with
the ability to launch submerged ballistic missiles - neatly
glossing over the fact that India remains, for several more
years, completely dependent on foreign-made submarines from
which to launch. Even if the ATV sub is successfully
inducted into the Indian arsenal on time, Delhi will still
need years more to install the K-15 system into the ATV and
to master the technology of successfully conducting
submerged ballistic launches. The DRDO claim that India
has the ability to launch nuclear-tipped missiles from the
air is presumably a reference to the planned deployment of
the Brahmos cruise missile as an air-launched missile slung
under a SU-30 attack aircraft. This claim is also
premature, as the successful airborne-launch of the Brahmos
is at least one year away, in 2009.

INDIAN SEA-STRIKE CAPABILITY NOT SOLELY INTENDED FOR
PAKISTAN


6. (S/NF) India has succeeded in a critical step towards
adding the formidable option - a sea-based strike - to its
strategic missile arsenal, making Islamabad's public
expression of angst understandable. The majority of
Pakistani cities lie easily within reach of existing Indian
land-based Agni missiles, and only one sits within logical
striking distance of a sea-borne missile launch - Karachi.
India's SLBM is intended to deter not Pakistan but rather
China, the only other country on India's border that can
pose an existential threat. END COMMENT.

MULFORD