Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08NEWDELHI722
2008-03-07 12:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

ELECTIONS VS. ELECTRONS: POLITICAL DETAILS LOOM

Tags:  PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000722 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS VS. ELECTRONS: POLITICAL DETAILS LOOM
LARGE IN RESOLUTION OF NUCLEAR INITIATIVE

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Atul Keshap for Reasons 1.4 (
B and D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000722

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS VS. ELECTRONS: POLITICAL DETAILS LOOM
LARGE IN RESOLUTION OF NUCLEAR INITIATIVE

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Atul Keshap for Reasons 1.4 (
B and D)


1. (C) Summary: With the resurgence of the civil nuclear
political debate during the budget session of Parliament,
observers have analyzed the minutiae to try to determine
whether the UPA government calls the Left's bluff soon, waits
until after the monsoon, or sits on the initiative
altogether. Most signs point to forward movement in the
coming weeks, including Congress Party statements that have
consistently highlighted the nuclear deal and the Left's
desperate call for a meeting of the nuclear committee.
However, several observers have reminded embassy officials
that Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi remains a
risk-averse politician still undecided on the electoral
benefits to her, her dynasty and the Congress Party of
confronting the Left to complete the deal. While the wind
has so far started to blow straw in the right direction, we
remain hopeful that action will take place soon. End Summary.

Dikshit Jumps into Fray
- - -


2. (SBU) Amidst a resurgence of noisy public discourse
coinciding with the beginning of the budget session of
Parliament, Delhi Chief Minister and senior Congress Party
leader Sheila Dikshit entered the nuclear debate for the
first time March 6. In a speech to women Congress workers in
the Communist-ruled state of Kerala, Dikshit challenged the
Left parties on the nuclear initiative. "Why don't they want
India to prosper, do well and sign the nuclear deal?" she
asked. "Why do they oppose it for India and not for their
supposed friends, China and Russia?" She argued that "the
nuclear deal is going to benefit each one of us, take the
country forward and bring about development never seen
before. The UPA government wanted to sign the deal which
would benefit all." Other Congress leaders, including

veteran leader and chief guest K. Karunakaran, also promoted
the nuclear initiative at the Kerala event.

Congress Continues Parliament Push
- - -


3. (SBU) The Kerala gathering occurred while Congress Party
leaders have reinforced the government's intention to move
ahead with the nuclear initiative in Parliament. Beginning
with President Pratibha Patel's one-sentence mention in her
opening speech to Parliament, which inflamed opponents,
External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh have both reiterated the determination to go
forward. In a combative March 5 speech that attacked the
opposition BJP, PM Singh emphasized his effort "to seek the
broadest possible consensus within the country to enable the
next step to be taken." "I believe cooperation is good for
us for energy security and the world," he underlined. In a
move that angered the BJP opposition, the PM called on former
Prime Minister Atal Vajpayee to rise above politics and
support a nuclear deal that it claimed even the BJP would
have embraced.


4. (SBU) Veerappa Moily, who has recently emerged as a key
strategist and spokesman since the Congress Party reshuffle
in late 2007, also fanned the flames. "Is it (the Left's)
mandate to shoot down national pride?" he challenged. "By
pulling down the government, do they want to frustrate what
has been achieved by diplomacy and hard work?" He underlined
that "the deal will have to happen in the interest of the
nation."

Left Issues Ultimatum
- - -


5. (SBU) Faced with the pro-nuclear onslaught, the Communist
Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) demanded in a March 6 letter
sent to Mukherjee from CPM leader Prakash Karat that the
Indian government hold a UPA-Left committee by March 15. "We
want the government to tell us about the negotiations with
the IAEA," Karat told the Hindustan Times. Karat flanked the
attack with an editorial in the CPM mouthpiece. "It is for
the Congress leadership to decide whether it wants to be seen
as kowtowing to the pressure of the Bush administration or
acting democratically and heeding the voice of Parliament and
the people," the "People's Daily" editorialized. "And this

NEW DELHI 00000722 002 OF 003


decision has to be a quick and clear one. The future of this
government depends on the decision they will take." The
central committee of the CPM began a three-day meeting March
7 in Delhi to discuss the upcoming party congress, which
occurs every three years to elect the party leadership. The
nuclear deal is expected to figure heavily in both gatherings.

Mukherjee Didn't Get the Memo
- - -


6. (C) Muddying the signals, March 7 papers quoted Mukherjee
as hedging whether the Congress Party would force the Left on
the backfoot. While Mukherjee denied that India and the IAEA
had completed their safeguards negotiations, he also ruled
out going forward with the initiative as a minority
government because the U.S. would not accept it. (Note: We
have repeatedly assured Indian officials that the U.S. would
work with any government in power, minority or not. End
Note.) Emboffs have learned from journalists, however, that
the quotation, lifted from a longer interview to be published
in the March 10 Outlook magazine, may have been
misrepresented. MEA Joint Secretary Gaitri Kumar promised to
get a clarification from Mukherjee's office.

Comment: Will the Straws in the Wind Ever Build a House?
- - -


7. (C) Signs that the government has shifted in a positive
direction on the nuclear initiative have accumulated.
Ambassador Ronen Sen's extension; the President's,
Mukherjee's and Prime Minister's various speeches to
Parliament; the clandestine conclusion of the IAEA safeguards
talks; Mukherjee's plan to visit Washington in late March;
and the farmer-friendly budget all point to the Congress
Party rupturing with the Left and calling for early
elections. Recent, separate conversations with Members of
Parliament, including Manvendra Singh of the BJP, Arcot
Veerasamy of the DMK (septel from Chennai),and Navin Jindal
of the Congress, bolster the optimistic outlook -- they all
think the initiative will move forward.


8. (C) The Left's intensified rhetoric indicates the
Communists' fear that the Congress Party has, in fact,
decided to move forward without any consultation. Karat, who
had previously set a December deadline for government to wrap
up the IAEA talks, appears desperate to establish a date for
the next UPA-Left committee meeting, which would give the
Communists the mechanism to stall the deal with politically
motivated paralogism. Without the meeting scheduled, the
Left lacks any formal role in the nuclear initiative -- it
can only resort to setting deadlines and issuing peevish
messages.


9. (C) Mukherjee's confusing and inconsistent statements
might also signal the possibility that he his relevance in
the nuclear process has diminished, although he remains
essentially the Deputy Prime Minister and key adviser to
Sonia Gandhi on issues of great sensitivity. We understand
that he recently lost an internal Congress Party battle over
the appointment of a rival, Parliamentary Affairs Minister
Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi, to lead the Congress Party in
Mukherjee's home state of West Bengal. While Mukherjee has
cozied up to the Communists, Dasmunsi has advocated closer
relations with the Trinamool Congress. As the chair of the
UPA-Left committee, Mukherjee had sought to bring the Left
and the Communists along on the nuclear initiative. Just as
the Left lacks a say if there is no committee meeting date
set, so too can Mukherjee. His inability to persuade the
Left could mean that he now has to do Sonia's and the Prime
Minister's bidding, as he did in his Parliament speech, which
dutifully supported the nuclear deal. We will keep examining
the tea leaves to see if others discern a slippage in
Mukherjee's standing.

If The Government Moves, When Will It Move?
- - -


10. (C) The key government action to trigger a schism with
the Left would be the submission of the safeguards agreement
to the IAEA Board of Governors, which then sets off the
sequence involving the Board, Nuclear Suppliers Group and
U.S. Congress. If the submission occurs during the March
20-April 7 break in the Parliament session, the Left may

NEW DELHI 00000722 003 OF 003


choose to withdraw formally from government when the second
half of the budget session resumes. However, even if the
Congress Party lost a no-confidence vote, the President may
still call on Parliament to pass the budget -- as took place
in 1999 when the Vajpayee's first attempt at national
government lost a no-confidence vote. The Left might also
choose only to withdraw rhetorically, but not go through the
formality of submitting a letter of withdrawal to the
President. In any case, as Menon and Saran divulged
recently, once the budget is approved, it liberates the
Congress Party. While that vote is currently scheduled for
May 9, we understand that the Congress will seek to shorten
discussions on the budget and move the crucial vote up to
late April. We bet they will go to the Board shortly
thereafter.

Why Force the Left Now?
- - -


11. (C) We were similarly upbeat about the prospects of the
nuclear initiative in autumn 2007 until Sonia Gandhi and the
PM slowed progress on October 10. What might propel nuclear
progress now? At the time, Gandhi explained (and Mukherjee
recently repeated) that the Congress Party wanted to
demonstrate its ability to lead a coalition for a full term.
She might consider four-and-a-half years sufficient and seek
elections for November 2008. November general elections
would also coincide with several state elections,
particularly Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarhh,
where the ruling BJP will face anti-incumbency tendencies,
and the state elections would benefit the Congress at the
national level.


12. (C) In addition, going through with the nuclear
initiative still makes political sense. The fact that
Dikshit has joined the nuclear bandwagon shows that she
thinks it will help her garner middle-class votes and fend
off the BJP when she runs for reelection in November. While
the nuclear initiative is evidence of India's global and
strategic maturity, nuclear power contributes to the supply
of water and power that voters care about. By seeking the
country's consensus, as opposed to the Parliament's
consensus, the Congress Party can come off as bold and
responsive. Of course, these arguments have been true since
the start of this initiative in July 2005, but they may have
become more relevant now as Congress gears up to face the
largely pro-American electorate.
MULFORD