Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08NEWDELHI690
2008-03-05 11:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

SAFEGUARDS TALKS DONE, INDIA WILL SOON MAKE

Tags:  PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN 
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DE RUEHNE #0690/01 0651158
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FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0750
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNNSG/NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 1415
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6104
C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 000690 

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: SAFEGUARDS TALKS DONE, INDIA WILL SOON MAKE
POLITICAL DECISION

Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 000690

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: SAFEGUARDS TALKS DONE, INDIA WILL SOON MAKE
POLITICAL DECISION

Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (C) Summary: Foreign Secretary Menon and Special Envoy to
the Prime Minister Shyam Saran confirmed to Assistant
Secretary Richard Boucher March 4 that India and the

SIPDIS
International Atomic Energy Agency had finally completed
their negotiations on a safeguards agreement. Menon
discounted the conventional wisdom that posited that the
Indian government would move forward only after the May 9
budget vote in Parliament, and he predicted that the
leadership could make a political decision this week on
whether to submit the safeguards agreement to the Board now.
Saran, on the other hand, viewed the May 9 date as the outer
limit for when the Indian government might move forward.
Boucher and Ambassador Mulford both urged that the timeline
compels the Indian government to take action as soon as
possible, and Boucher added that the U.S. and India should
work towards concluding the lingering issue of Nuclear
Suppliers Group and Missile Technology Control Regime
harmonization and adherence. End Summary.

Menon: We Must Make the Political Call Now
- - -


2. (C) In a March 4 meeting with Assistant Secretary for
South and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher, Indian
Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon related that India and
the International Atomic Energy Agency produced a final text
during the fifth round of safeguards talks that concluded
February 28, but have refrained from making a public
announcement. Menon noted that the Indian government will
decide today whether the safeguards text as it stands is
sufficient to move forward. Menon judged that the Left will
challenge the agreement "no matter what." Menon also
dismissed the "conventional wisdom" that the United
Progressive Alliance government would only take action on the
nuclear deal after the budget vote scheduled May 9. Instead,

Menon remarked, the government "will make a determination of
what to do this week." Menon detailed that the safeguards
agreement includes a declaration and annex, under which the
Indian government will place its facilities as they fall
under safeguards and fuel suppliers will declare shipments.
In response to a question from Boucher, Menon also specified
that the agreement includes language that ensures that the
safeguards agreement take effect only after the completion of
other steps, including the Nuclear Suppliers Group exception.


3. (C) Special Envoy to the Prime Minister Shyam Saran also
confirmed in a separate March 4 meeting that India had
concluded the safeguards talks. Saran opined that the text
was "as good as we can get with nothing missing or included
that could cause difficulty." But he also recognized that
the political attitude would determine the way forward. He
thought that the Indian government would wait until the
budget session concluded May 9, after which the government
has "lots of room for maneuvering." Boucher stressed that
the Indians have already put the initiative in "overtime."
Saran clarified that May 9 actually served as the "upper
limit" for when the Indians might move the initiative
forward, and if the government felt that it could bring the
Left along, the initiative could progress earlier.

Get the Deal to Nuclear Suppliers Group By End of April or
Beginning of May
- - -


4. (C) Boucher outlined for Menon that if the Indian
government made public that it had reached agreement with the
IAEA, the U.S. would work quickly towards an International
Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting, which he
expected could occur in three-to-four weeks. Simultaneously,
he continued, the U.S. would also start its lobbying campaign
in the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which he cautioned could not
make an exception until after the Board approved the
safeguards agreement. He noted that the U.S. could either
"leapfrog" to a Nuclear Suppliers Group Plenary, or develop
the exception language in Consultative Group meetings before
a Plenary. Ambassador Mulford averred that the experts have
already had enough time to look critically at the nuclear
initiative, and he expected that, similar to the U.S.
Congress vote on the Hyde Act, countries would fall on the
side of better relations with India. Menon affirmed that the
India safeguards agreement is "basically an Information

Circular 66," and as such should raise few questions among
the Nuclear Suppliers Group members.

Clean Exception Needed
- - -


5. (C) Saran underlined that India will look to the U.S. to
produce a clean exception to the Nuclear Suppliers Group
Guidelines. "We do not want to set off another controversy
in an election year," he cautioned. Boucher asked whether
countries have urged India to accept any conditions. Saran
replied that several countries have asked India to sign the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and a couple have raised the
fissile material moratorium, but no other potential
conditions have come up. Boucher asked about "post hoc
conditions," such as the right for countries to demand the
return of nuclear fuel or items in case India detonates a
nuclear device. Saran said that such conditions have not
been proposed.

Saran Points To China as the Last Remaining Question Mark
- - -


6. (C) Saran reviewed his engagement with Nuclear Suppliers
Group countries as having moved the Group in a positive
direction, with the exception of China, which remained
ambiguous. He sensed that China "will not be the one country
not to agree, but we must ensure that no other countries come
out against the exception." Boucher suggested that the U.S.
might talk with the Chinese again, and specifically address
the issue of a generic versus India-specific exception. That
way, Boucher explained, the Chinese can tell "its friend"
that it attempted to argue a criteria-based approach. Saran
pointed out that China had made an effort to express its
support for civil nuclear cooperation during Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh's December visit to Beijing, as well as in the
context of Indian membership in the International
Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor program, actions which
"hint that China may be inclined to support us."

Other Countries Have Moved in Positive Direction
- - -


7. (C) Having traveled to many Nuclear Suppliers Group
countries, Saran assessed that they will look primarily to
the U.S., as well as Russia, France and the United Kingdom
for guidance. He recalled that several formerly hostile
countries such as Brazil and South Africa have softened their
position considerably, and he reported that Argentinean
officials told him they might raise a few questions, but
would "do no harm" to India's aspirations. Saran noted that
Norwegian officials admitted to him that Norway plans to rely
on alternative sources of energy and would like to
collaborate on thorium research. Regarding Ireland, Saran
said that he got the sense that the Irish have strong
nonproliferation credentials to uphold, and they do not want
to be seen as rolling over. Boucher listed Germany, Ireland,
New Zealand, Austria and Australia as the countries that the
U.S. and India should emphasize. Saran remarked that while
the German Foreign Minister is "a little uptight," the
government itself has expressed support. Boucher and Saran
agreed to coordinate on the Nuclear Suppliers Group
engagement.

Congress Party Moves Inch-By-Inch
- - -


8. (C) Ambassador Mulford asked Menon whether the Left will
continue to challenge the implementation of the nuclear
initiative. Menon responded that the Communists have been
very careful not to say what they define as
"operationalization." The Ambassador termed the Left's
negative flexibility as a "rolling no." Menon thought there
was a good chance that the political leaders would decide to
challenge the Left and, invoking David Ben-Gurion's remark
that Israel had to buy land inch-by-inch to assert its place
in the Middle East, he thought the Indian government would
adopt a similar strategy of gradual forward movement to make
the Communists accept the reality of the nuclear deal.

Lingering Issues Also Need Resolution
- - -


9. (C) Boucher also reminded Menon and Saran that India must
also harmonize with and adhere to the Nuclear Suppliers Group
and Missile Technology Control Group Guidelines. Menon noted
that Indian officials have previously expressed the
willingness to adhere to those arms control groups provided
that India could take part in the decision-making process.
"We need to be able to say we are not signing on to a blank
check," he remarked. Saran claimed that India has completed
the harmonization process, and echoed Menon's comments on
adherence. Poloff suggested that the Indian government reply
to the draft adherence statement that Ambassador Donald
Mahley provided in October. Saran told Joint Secretary
Gaitri Kumar to look into the matter.


10. (C) Ambassador Mulford asked about the Indian response to
the draft letter of intent. Saran said that, while "numbers
may be difficult," the Indian government was preparing a
response. He added that, as the U.S. has led the civil
nuclear initiative, India recognizes that it will have a
major share of future nuclear commerce.


11. (C) Regarding the Additional Protocol, Boucher also
pressed that the Indian government show it has made
substantial progress. Saran replied that the close
relationship between the Indian Department of Atomic Energy
and the International Atomic Energy Agency will make this an
easy action item, particularly once the safeguards agreement
goes through.

Comment: Political Obstacles Still Remain
- - -


10. (C) While it appears as if the Indian government has
finally produced a safeguards text, the political waters
still remain too murky for the Congress Party to move forward
immediately. Although extremely late on the timeline, the
budget vote on May 9, which both Menon and Saran cited as
liberating the Congress Party from its Communist chains, may
prove tempting for a government that has so far lacked the
political courage to confront the Communists. However, the
confirmation that India has a safeguards text adds substance
to the many signals, among them Ambassador Ronen Sen's
extension and an excessively pro-poor budget, that indicate
the government may finally move the deal forward, even as it
prepares for general election in the months to come.


11. (U) Assistant Secretary Boucher has cleared this cable.
MULFORD