Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08NEWDELHI606
2008-02-26 11:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

INDIAN PARLIAMENT BEGINS WITH NUCLEAR BANG

Tags:  PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN 
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INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNNSG/NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000606 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: INDIAN PARLIAMENT BEGINS WITH NUCLEAR BANG

Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000606

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: INDIAN PARLIAMENT BEGINS WITH NUCLEAR BANG

Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (SBU) Summary: Building on the unexpected extension of
Ambassador Ronen Sen's tenure in the U.S., President Patil's
expression of hope for the completion of the nuclear deal
during her first address to Parliament February 25 has
injected life back into the civil nuclear cooperation
initiative. While the Left reiterated its intention to block
nuclear progress, the Congress Party, bolstered by the start
of the fifth round of IAEA talks, repeated its support. The
March 20-April 7 break during this Parliament budget session
could present an opportunity for the UPA government to
provoke the Left by submitting the safeguards agreement to
the IAEA Board of Governors. Such a rupture would set the
stage for general elections in the fall or early 2009. We
lay odds at 50-50 that the Congress Party High Command will
seize this opportunity. End Summary.

President's Nuclear Molehill Becomes a Mountain
- - -


2. (SBU) Opening the budget session February 25, Indian
President Pratibha Patil delivered her first address to
Parliament. After promoting the government's efforts to
promote agricultural, industrial, health and technological
development for the bulk of her speech, Patil turned her
attention to foreign policy. She first reviewed India's
"enhanced" partnership with China, and then, in paragraph 59,
focused on the U.S. "Our relations with the U.S have
improved in the past few years, and now span a wide spectrum
including high technology, space, agriculture, education and
trade and other linkages. It is our hope that civil nuclear
cooperation with the USA and other friendly countries will
become possible," she stated. She next turned to India's
"time-tested friendship" with Russia.


3. (SBU) Despite the perfunctory and brief mention of the
nuclear issue towards the end of a lengthy speech, the Left

immediately reacted. "There is no change in our position --
that is, do not proceed to operationalize the deal,"
Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) leader Sitaram
Yechury challenged. CPM cohort M.K. Pandhe made clear that
"the government will have to suffer if they breach the
commitment of not going ahead with the India-U.S. nuclear
deal." Communist Party of India (CPI) national secretary D.
Raja remarked that the Left Front expected to debate the
nuclear initiative again during the current Parliament
session. T.J. Chandrachoodan, general secretary of the
hard-line RSP party, which forms part of the Left Front,
offered that "there is no sense in continuing to support the
government." In his response to the Left, Congress Party
spokesman Abhishek Singhvi reinforced the President's message
after her speech. "We emphatically stand for the deal...no
amount of statements from either side will change our
position," he stressed.


4. (SBU) In its coverage of the President's speech, the press
highlighted the nuclear allusion as consistent with the
related reports of the beginning of the fifth round of IAEA
talks and the extension of Ronen Sen as Ambassador to the
U.S. The February 26 Economic Times featured the headline,
"N-deal is on, says Prez address..." while the Times of India
offered "Government hopeful on nuclear deal." The Pioneer
saw the President's speech as provocative, which spawned the
headline, "UPA-Left rift widens over nuclear deal." Only the
February 26 Telegraph downplayed the remarks as a "passing
reference," and quoted an unnamed CPM source who dismissed
the significance of the speech as "only an expression of
hope."

IAEA Talks Enter Fifth Round
- - -


5. (C) As proof that the Indian government intends to make
progress on the initiative, Prime Minister's Office Director
Virendar Paul confirmed to poloff that an Indian team, again
led by Department of Atomic Energy Strategic Planning Group
Director Ravi B. Grover, arrived in Vienna February 25. When
asked if he expected a safeguards agreement to emerge at the
end of the week, Paul hedged, "let's wait and see how it
goes." The February 26 Times of India with a Vienna byline
referred to sources who claimed that "Indian negotiators and
IAEA are also keeping the agency's Board of Governors updated
on the progress of the consultations so that it would be

NEW DELHI 00000606 002 OF 002


easier when it officially comes for discussion during the
Board meeting on March 3." The sources further clarified
that "India may or may not come up for the official
discussion."

Comment: Congress Party Brings the Nuclear Ball Back Into Play
- - -


6. (C) As insignificant as the President's nuclear shout-out
might seem in the context of her wide-ranging speech, the
fact that she chose to mention the controversial issue, which
many had dismissed as dead, in the Indian equivalent of the
State of the Union speech, reveals the UPA government's wish
to keep the nuclear initiative alive and in the public eye in
order to build pressure on the Left. Coming on the heels of
the July deadline set by Senators Kerry, Biden and Hagel and
at the beginning of IAEA talks, her words take on an added
significance regarding the timeline. With Ambassador Sen's
extension widely interpreted as a sign that the pro-deal
forces in the Indian government now have the upper hand, the
President's association with the nuclear initiative adds one
more prominent Congress Party leader to the list of
supporters.

Budget Session Presents Opportunity for Nuclear Push
- - -


7. (C) By re-igniting nuclear debate after letting the flames
die down, the Congress Party may be preparing for a decisive
confrontation with the Left during the March 20-April 7 break
in the budget session. The government could submit the
safeguards agreement to the IAEA Board for approval,
triggering the Left to withdraw from the government when the
Parliament returns April 7. Under this scenario, the
Communists would call for a no-confidence vote only after
supporting, or abstaining from, a vote on the budget, since
no political party wants to be seen as obstructing the
enactment of pro-poor measures. General elections would then
occur earlier than May 2009, although delimitation (the
periodic exercise of redrawing parliamentary districts) could
mean that calling the elections will be a slow process -- as
much as ten months -- while the Election Commission draws the
new districts.


8. (C) This scenario would help the Congress Party attract
votes from the largely pro-U.S. middle-class, who tend to
lean towards the opposition BJP, while drawing a clear line
between the Congress Party and the Communists, who will
compete against each other for votes. But the move also
requires the Congress Party to find its backbone, which it
lost many months ago. Because of the courage that such an
aggressive challenge demands, we put the odds at 50-50 that
the Congress Party will finally get the guts to go through
with the deal.
MULFORD