Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08NEWDELHI59
2008-01-08 12:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

WEAKENED UPA AND LEFT MULL MIDDLE WAY TO COMPLETE

Tags:  PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN 
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9931
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNNSG/NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000059 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: WEAKENED UPA AND LEFT MULL MIDDLE WAY TO COMPLETE
NUCLEAR INITIATIVE

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Steven White for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000059

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: WEAKENED UPA AND LEFT MULL MIDDLE WAY TO COMPLETE
NUCLEAR INITIATIVE

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Steven White for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (C) Summary: While the Indian government prolongs the
safeguards talks to a fourth round, the Congress Party and
Left appear to have reacted to the Gujarat election loss by
reaffirming that the UPA government will last its full term,
which complicates the completion of the nuclear initiative in
the face of Left opposition. However, External Affairs
Minister Pranab Mukherjee's reiteration of the government's
commitment came two days before Communist leaders expressed
support for opening India to the global nuclear market while
remaining opposed to the 123 Agreement with the U.S. As the
Congress Party finds its feet after the Gujarat election
loss, it will likely start implementing this "middle path" of
stressing the multilateral aspects of the nuclear initiative
and minimizing the U.S.-specific elements that could create
domestic political complications. End Summary.

Government Continues To Express Support
- - -


2. (SBU) Speaking to reporters January 4, External Affairs
Minister Pranab Mukherjee underlined that the UPA government
will still attempt to move the nuclear deal forward. "I have
not given up. We are working on how we can proceed," he
said. However, Mukherjee also expressed anxiety about the
timeline. "Of course, time is running out. But one cannot
help it," he commented. He concluded his remarks by pointing
out that India needed the IAEA safeguards agreement and
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) exception to engage in civil
nuclear cooperation with any country.

Left Wants Nuclear Cooperation, But Not With U.S.
- - -


3. (SBU) Speaking two days after Mukherjee's comments,
Prakash Karat and A.B. Bardhan, the general secretaries of
the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) and Communist
Party of India (CPI),respectively, clarified the Left's

position after an hour-long meeting. Karat said that he and
Bardhan agreed that the Left will continue to oppose the 123
Agreement, but would support Indian nuclear cooperation with
other countries, such as Russia and France. The January 7
Economic Times reported that the Left would ask the
government to "work out a mechanism to ensure that the
nuclear fuel market opens up for India but the deal with the
U.S. is not operationalized."

Comment: Post-Gujarat Fear of Resurgent BJP Could Help
Nuclear Deal
- - -


4. (C) The Gujarat election drubbing and BJP victory in
Himachal Pradesh has compelled the Congress Party and Left to
stick together and avoid early elections at all costs. In a
January 2 conversation with poloff, Indian Express reporter
Pranab Dhal Samata dismissed any more speculation about
holding elections before May 2009 as "very unlikely." Even
Karat, who has so far acted with little regard for political
ramifications, fears the BJP's resurgent "non-secular" stance
more than a strategic partnership with the U.S. Moreover,
the CPM still faces internal dissension between state and
national factions about the proper role of communist ideology
while attempting to encourage development, as evidenced by
West Bengal leader Jyoti Basu's January 6 claim, widely
reported by the press, that while socialism is not achievable
at this time, capitalism is necessary for industrialization.

Political Exigencies Force Middle Path
- - -


5. (C) As a result of the collective political weakness of
the Congress and Left, it appears that they may have found a
possible middle-way formula that reminds voters of how the
civil nuclear initiative can open India to the world, as
opposed to the U.S. alone. The Indian government's
insistence that it could not sign bilateral agreements with
Russia and France until the IAEA and NSG took their steps
seems to have succeeded in pressuring the skeptical Left to
continue to allow forward movement on the multilateral
aspects of the deal. In exchange, the Left will likely
demand that the 123 Agreement remain on the backburner, if
not abandoned altogether.

NEW DELHI 00000059 002 OF 002



Timing Remains Dicey
- - -


6. (C) What does this mean for the timely completion of the
nuclear initiative? After securing the three requirements
outlined by Mukherjee during the November nuclear debate in
Parliament -- strategic reserve guarantee, acknowledgement of
separation plan, and fuel supply assurance -- the safeguards
agreement will likely go to the UPA-Left committee by the end
of January (provided India and the IAEA complete it by then).
Adding further pressure to move forward on the IAEA and NSG,
India will not have signed a bilateral agreement with France
during President Nicholas Sarkozy's January 26 visit to
Delhi. Meanwhile, with the Left and UPA clinging to each
other, submission of the safeguards text to the Board will no
longer provoke the collapse of the government, which means
that the March 3-7 BOG, held in the middle of the first part
of India's budget session of Parliament, could consider the
India safeguards agreement without serious repercussions. At
the same time, Indian engagement with NSG countries could
also proceed, passing muster with the Left under the aegis of
multilateralism.

Sequencing Still An Issue
- - -


7. (C) Like all politics in India, this scenario depends on
several uncertainties. The Indian government's qualms about
having a Board vote before the NSG meeting stems not as much
from the fear of the Left, as from the concerns about nuclear
scientists' reaction. The nuclear scientists maintain that
submitting the safeguards agreement to the Board before
receiving a clean exception from the NSG takes India's
commitment a step too far. The middle way formula could give
the Prime Minister enough confidence to override the
scientists and move forward on the Board. On the other hand,
the Left might seem more amenable to proceeding with the
nuclear initiative now precisely because the Communists can
hide behind the sequencing impasse imposed by the scientists.
The scientists also hold the key to the political balance,
since the Left and BJP opposition will seize and exaggerate
any scientific criticism made public. In other words, the
sequencing of the Board vote before the NSG exception remains
outstanding.

India To Move Forward on Russia and France Deals
- - -


8. (C) The scenario may also require the Indians to pursue
bilateral agreements with France and Russia as soon as the
NSG provides an exception and the IAEA approves the
safeguards agreement. If completed prior to the
Congressional approval of the 123 Agreement, other countries
will have a headstart over U.S. firms. A Letter of Intent,
however, should help salve the sting, though the Left would
likely protest any such written assurance.


9. (C) In any case, if the recent public messages delivered
by Mukherjee and the Left truly reflect the post-Gujarat
reality, the new year could see the UPA government emphasize
the multilateral aspects of the deal in order to get the deal
done. The Left, meanwhile, will have to swallow the fact
that India still depends on the U.S. to banish India's
nuclear isolation once and for all.
WHITE