CONGRESS TRIES TO BREATHE LIFE INTO THE PARTY WITH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000506

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DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS TRIES TO BREATHE LIFE INTO THE PARTY WITH
STALE STRATEGIES

REF: A. 06 CALCUTTA 578

B. 07 CALCUTTA 11

C. 07 KOLKATA 88

D. 07 KOLKATA 145

E. 07 KOLKATA 340

F. 07 KOLKATA 345

G. 07 MUMBAI 722


1. (SBU) Summary: The rattled Congress high command is
exploring several moves ) cabinet reshuffle, populist
budget, changing alliance partners, promotion of Rahul Gandhi
- to recover from its trouncing by the Bharatiya Janata Party
in recent state assembly elections. Public bullying by the
Left parties over the US-India civil nuclear agreement has
also weakened the party. The appointment of cabinet
ministers from Delhi to lead state party units further
aggravates a historical failing of the Congress Party )
concentration of power in the hands of a few in Delhi and
failure to develop strong leaders in the states. Most
observers believe that tinkering such as organizational
changes and cabinet reshuffles will not be sufficient to
reinvigorate the party so it can be competitive in the coming
state and national elections. What is needed are bold
initiatives which the party does not appear to have the
courage or ideas or strength of leadership to propose. End
Summary.

Congress Party Reshuffle in Key States
--------------


2. (SBU) In the first of a series of moves expected in the
coming weeks, the Indian National Congress (INC) announced on
February 13 changes in state party unit leaderships in three
key states, sending out central cabinet ministers to take
charge of these states. Water resources Minister Saifuddin
Soz was given charge of the Jammu and Kashmir unit.
Information and Broadcasting and Parliamentary Affairs
Minister Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi was appointed president of the
West Bengal unit of the party. Minister for Personnel Suresh
Pachauri was named head of the Madhya Pradesh state party.
Two of the three states ) Jammu and Kashmir and Madhya
Pradesh ) are due for state assembly elections this year.
In West Bengal, the INC may be sensing a vulnerable Communist
Party of India ) Marxist (CPI-M) government, which has been
damaged by its involvement in the Nandigram violence (refs
A-F) when CPI-M cadres killed, raped, assaulted and forcibly
evicted villagers resisting displacement to make way for an
investment project.

Jammu and Kashmir: Mending Fences
--------------


3. (SBU) Water Resources Minister Saifuddin Soz replaces
Peerzada Mohammad Sayeed, who was forced to resign from his
post in January after allegations of bribery and corruption
were levied against him. A fellow legislator accused Sayeed
of demanding and accepting $1000 for granting permission to
open a private elementary school in the state. Jammu and
Kashmir state assembly elections are due in September-October
of this year. The state is divided into three vote banks:
Jammu, predominantly Hindu and a Congress stronghold; the
Kashmir valley, predominantly Muslim; and Ladakh,
predominantly Buddhist. The INC hopes that Soz, who is from
the Kashmir valley, will balance Congress Chief Minister
Ghulam Nabi Azad, who is from the Jammu area and seen in the
valley as an outsider. In making this move, the INC is
mending fences with its coalition partner, Mufti Mohammad
Sayeed,s People,s Democratic Party (PDP) after Chief
Minister Azad was overruled in his attempt to drop PDP in
favor of the National Conference. A strong Congress
performance in the Kashmir valley may have some spill-over
benefits for the party in terms of Muslim votes in other
states. (Note: Saifuddin Soz is a close Embassy contact; he
is a member of the Left-UPA panel that is considering Left

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parties, objections to the US-India civil nuclear
agreement.)

West Bengal: A Confrontational Approach
--------------


4. (SBU) Information and Broadcasting and Parliamentary
Affairs Minister Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi takes over from Pradip
Bhattacharya, who had been keeping the seat warm after Pranab
Mukherjee quit the post on taking over the External Affairs
Ministry in 2006. The move is seen as a signal that the INC
is getting ready to battle with its Communist Party of India
) Marxist (CPI-M) allies in the coming state panchayat and
national elections. While Pranab Mukherjee was perceived to
have a cozy relationship with the CPI-M, Dasmunsi is more
adversarial and has severely criticized the CPI-M for the
Nandigram violence. Apparently, the Dasmunsi/CPI-M tussle
goes back more than 40 years when Dasmunsi faced off with
West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya ) and won
-- in the Calcutta University student union elections.
Dasmunsi is also considered better placed to forge an
alliance with Mamta Bennerjee and the Trinamool Congress
Party, which is likely to pick up support from those
disenchanted with CPI-M rule in the state.

Madhya Pradesh: A Compromise Choice
--------------


5. (SBU) In Madhya Pradesh, Minister of Personnel Suresh
Pachauri will replace former Deputy Chief Minister Subhash
Yadav. With state elections due in October-November, Madhya
Pradesh is considered the INC,s best bet to oust a Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP)-held government and make up for the string
of humbling INC state house losses during 2007. In addition
to being an INC-BJP battleground, the state is also an arena
for power struggles between some of the INC,s most prominent
leaders in Delhi. Human Resource Development Minister Arjun
Singh and Commerce and Industries Minister Kamal Nath are
high profile cabinet members from Madhya Pradesh. Former
Chief Minister Digvijay Singh is a trusted member of Sonia
Gandhi,s inner circle, and currently leading a high-profile
Congress delegation to Nepal. Member of Parliament in the
Lok Sabha Jyotiraditya Scindia is also a rising star in the
party and is rumored to be feared as a threat by Rahul Gandhi
himself. In the run-up to the state and national elections
in Madhya Pradesh, the last thing the INC needs is
in-fighting to break out among the different camps and
personalities from the state. Pachauri was selected because
he is considered neutral among the state,s power players.
To make Pachauri,s decision more palatable to Arjun Singh,
the latter's son was named chairman of the state unit,s
campaign committee, which will give the father-son duo a
strong hand in the selection of party candidates in the state
assembly elections.

Comment: A Battered and Bruised Congress Party
-------------- -


6. (SBU) The organizational changes announced February 13
were not unexpected. Congress today is a seriously weakened
party after a series of setbacks in state polls during 2007,
and especially its thumping loss to Narendra Modi in Gujarat
(ref G). Public bullying by the Left parties over the
US-India civil nuclear agreement has fueled perceptions of a
feeble and dithering party with no back-bone, intent of
hanging on to power even at the cost of compromising on its
principles. Most observers agree that Congress would fare
poorly if national elections were held today. In search of a
make-over, the party has been exploring many steps to recover
and remain competitive in important state and parliamentary
elections in the coming months: organizational changes in
that state party units such as the ones on February 13; a
cabinet reshuffle, which has been rumored for months but is
now appearing imminent; a populist budget, due on February

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29; a shifting of alliances with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister
Mayawati,s Bahujan Samaj Party out and Mulayum Singh
Yadav,s Samawadi Party and Mamta Banerjee,s Trinamool
Congress Party in; and changes in the party organization in
Delhi with promotion of Rahul Gandhi to working president.
It is not clear whether this nickel and dime approach will
work. What will remain missing are the bold and visionary
initiatives and ideas and courageous leadership that the
Congress Party needs to refurbish its image.


7. (SBU) The appointment of cabinet ministers from Delhi to
lead state party units further concentrates power in the
hands of a few in Delhi. The Congress leadership apparently
does not realize that one of the party,s historical failings
has been its centralization of power. Under Indira Gandhi,
Rajiv Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi, decision-making has been
closely held, with the party leader consulting only a small
coterie of advisors in Delhi. This led to the failure of the
party to develop strong leaders in the states and to the
resulting growth of regional parties. The inability of the
current Congress leadership to even identify such failings
let alone fix them accounts for the difficult situation the
party finds itself in ahead of the national elections due
within 14 months. As the Congress remains tone deaf and
desperate, the BJP is increasingly in step with public
sentiment. End Comment.
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