A RECHARGED BJP PUTS ITS HOUSE IN ORDER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000342

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SUBJECT: A RECHARGED BJP PUTS ITS HOUSE IN ORDER

REF: A. NEW DELHI 316

B. 07 MUMBAI 722

C. 07 NEW DELHI 5278

D. 07 NEW DELHI 3031


1. (SBU) Summary: On the heels of its sweeping victories in
the Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat state assembly elections,
the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) national executive meeting
on January 27-29 revealed a party reinvigorated with energy
and direction. Unlike the previous national executive
meeting where a power struggle was at play, at this meeting
the party clearly coalesced around a single man, L.K. Advani,
as its leader and prime ministerial candidate. The meeting
also marked the emergence on the national level of Gujarat
Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who shattered the
anti-incumbency myth by returning to power a third
consecutive time in Gujarat (ref B). BJP President Rajnath
Singh called on BJP Chief Ministers to emulate Modi and his
winning message of development and good governance. The BJP
leadership attacked the "Delhi Sultanate" of the current UPA
government for its weak leadership, softness on terror,
minority appeasement, and policies that led to uneven
economic development for rural and urban citizens. As an
alternative, the BJP offered a financial package it claimed
would benefit rural farmers and the urban working middle
class. The BJP leadership acknowledged the importance of
allies and the need to strengthen the NDA coalition. The BJP
message balanced Hindutva issues to galvanize its base with
development solutions to expand a strong NDA coalition. Over
the next month, Singh and Advani will travel across the
country generating support for the BJP and gearing up for
national elections. Throughout the meeting, the BJP appeared
reenergized, united, disciplined, and ready to wrest power
from the UPA. End Summary.

Advani Takes the Helm
--------------


2. (U) The January 27-29 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
national executive meeting revealed the makeover of a party
which only a few months before seemed in disarray (ref D).
Whereas tension marred the relationship between BJP President
Rajnath Singh and Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha
L.K. Advani at the previous national executive meeting in
June 2007, unity was the inescapable sentiment this time. No
longer were various personalities vying for the coveted top
job - L.K. Advani had already been selected as the candidate
for Prime Minister, first by the BJP in December 2007 (ref C)
and then by the NDA coalition in January 2008 (ref A). All
BJP leaders coalesced around Advani, with Gujarat Chief
Minister Narendra Modi going so far as to say, Advani was the
&greatest gift8 given to the BJP.

Narendra Modi, A Star Rises on the National Stage
--------------


3. (U) Drawing a standing ovation which lasted several
minutes, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who defied
anti-incumbency to win an unprecedented third consecutive
term in Gujarat (ref B) was the most sought after leader at
the meeting. A controversial figure due to his government's
failings in the 2002 Gujarat riots, his sometimes abrasive
personality and his often combative style, Modi's successful
2007 campaign in Gujarat was closely studied for lessons to
be used in the coming state and national elections. Despite
his connection to the riots, Modi raised the development
indicators in Gujarat in a variety of areas, including
infrastructure, education, employment, power, and sanitation.
Modi's argument that the impact of development reached
Gujaratis regardless of religion or caste affiliations
resonated strongly with Gujarati voters. Singh called on all
BJP Chief Ministers, and particularly those in BJP-led states
(Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh) going to polls
in 2008 to emulate Modi in order to succeed.


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4. (U) In his address to the party, Modi seemed geared up for
a larger national role by touching on national campaign
issues instead of talking about Gujarat. Adding to the Modi
hype and to continue raising his profile, Modi's Gujarat
Government took a page from Uttar Pradesh Bahujan Samaj Party
(BSP) Chief Minister Mayawati's playbook and ran full page
advertisements in numerous major newspapers in Northern
India, including The Hindu and The Tribune. These
advertisements highlighted Gujarat as a model of development
made possible by good governance and donned large pictures of
Modi, who is making himself the poster boy for the BJP.

Attacking Congress and the UPA Government
--------------


5. (U) Advani, Modi, and the rest of the BJP leadership
pounded the "Delhi Sultanate" of the United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) government mercilessly. They characterized
the UPA as an ineffective and weak government, describing the
Prime Minister as being under the thumb of Congress, UPA
President Sonia Gandhi and the communists. In addition to
attacking the government on not having a national security
agenda, Modi claimed that the UPA government stymied his
efforts to implement laws addressing terrorism in Gujarat.
Modi and others raised the traditional Hindutva issues such
as the UPA being soft on terror for considering clemency for
Afzal Guru, one of the people convicted in connection with
the December 2001 attack on Parliament.


6. (U) Modi charged the UPA with promoting religious
conversions through its plan to give more budgetary
allocations for development in minority-dominated districts
and raising priority lending for minorites to 15 percent.
Describing these proposals as &communal budgeting,8 the BJP
alleged the UPA and Congress will cause mass conversions to
Islam and Christianity through such &minority appeasement8
policy initiatives. He argued that poverty does not know
religion or caste and charged the UPA with fragmenting
society at the cost of effective development.


7. (U) The BJP characterized the UPA coalition as an
&unnatural alliance8 that is falling apart. BJP President
Rajnath Singh claimed that Telangana Rashta Samiti (TRS) and
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) have left the
UPA combine. He additionally observed that Uttar Pradesh
Chief Minister and leader of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)
Mayawati had been publicly denigrating the Congress party and
predicted an impending split. And, he noted the Left
Front,s relationship with Congress as tenuous at best after
falling out over the U.S.-Indo civil nuclear deal.


8. (U) Advani railed at a &failed and worthless8 UPA for
not doing enough for the &aam admi8 (common man). Aside
from increasing tax rates and delivering high cost housing,
education, and medical care, Advani rhetorically asked what
the UPA had done to improve the living conditions of the poor
or middle class in India. He also attacked Sonia Gandhi's
Italian origin and the UPA's disconnect with the populace on
culturally sensitive issues like Ram Sethu. Advani charged
the UPA with being weak, morally bankrupt and ineffective and
offered the BJP/NDA as a far better alternative.

The BJP Alternative: Representing the Poor Farmers
--------------


9. (U) During the national executive meeting, the BJP
highlighted economic proposals it claimed would benefit both
rural farmers and and the urban middle class. In fact, none
of these proposals differ greatly from what the UPA is trying
to accomplish, but the BJP is using these proposals as
another dig at the UPA's ineffective governance. The BJP
provided an eight page resolution on agricultural reforms it
claims need to be adopted to address the plight of farmers
and rural Indians. The BJP promised to provide relief to
indebted farmers who have been committing suicide across the

NEW DELHI 00000342 003 OF 004


country. In order to ameliorate the suffering of farmers, in
its economic resolution, the BJP pledged to write off farmer
loans up to 50,000 rupees (USD 1,250) regardless of whether
they borrowed from a private or public institution. (Note:
India's agricultural crisis, however, is more related to
archaic laws and farming methods. Merely writing away loans
is unlikely to stop farmers from committing suicide or
solving the problem. What is needed is large scale systemic
changes which the BJP may find hard to implement just as the
current UPA government is struggling to do so. End Note.)


10. (U) The BJP also asserted that the Land Acquisition Act
was being misused by the government and leading to situations
like Nandigram. The BJP proposal provides farmers whose land
is acquired shareholder status in whatever project develops
on that land. Additionally, the BJP proposed an amendment to
the legislation to ensure that fertile and irrigated land
would not be acquired until all other options have been
exhausted, so as to not cause volatile situations like
Nandigram.

The BJP Alternative: Representing the Growing Middle Class
--------------


11. (U) In order to maintain its appeal with its traditional
base - the middle class - and expand that appeal to the
growing young middle class, the BJP offered messages of
change for them too. By promising lower interest rates for
housing and education and proposing an increase in the
personal income tax threshold, the BJP hopes to strike a
chord not only with rural farmers - through agricultural
proposals - but also with the urban middle class regardless
of age.

Wooing the Women Voters
--------------


12. (U) In an attempt to woo women voters, the BJP amended
its party Constitution to reserve 33 percent of the positions
in the party for women. It claimed that this was a precursor
to giving 33 percent reservations for women in Parliament,
which has been considered and defeated before as the Women's
Reservation Bill. Political observers see this as a smart
move to counter the UPA led by Sonia Gandhi.

Hitting the Road
--------------


13. (U) With momentum from state election wins in Punjab,
Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, and Gujarat, Advani and Singh
are planning to hit the road for the next month. They will
hold rallies throughout the country in an effort to generate
excitement for their party, woo new partners to the
coalition, and to offer the BJP/NDA combine as a viable
alternative.

Comment: Saffron Sunrise
--------------


14. (SBU) After the slew of state wins, the BJP is recharged,
pumped, and ready to take on the UPA, which is seen as
becoming increasingly indecisive and cautious. The stark
difference between the last national executive meeting in
June 2007 after a loss in Uttar Pradesh and this meeting show
the BJP resurgent. With Advani tapped as the undisputed BJP
and NDA coalition leader going into the polls, the bickering
and power plays have reached a lull for the moment. There is
still a quiet struggle in the next generation of leaders,
particularly between Rajnath Singh and Narendra Modi, who
both have strong desires to succeed Advani.


15. (SBU) After thumping Congress in Gujarat, the BJP sees
victory closer at hand on the national level. It has put its
house in order and seems to have gotten down to the business
of winning the next general election. With elections in ten

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states in 2008, the BJP will pay particular attention to
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, where there are
already BJP-led governments. It will try to use the Modi
playbook to fight the anti-incumbency factor in these states.
Observers are watching closely and debating whether the BJP
can succeed in transferring the Gujarat model to other
states. What is not for debate, however, is the tremendous
momentum with which the BJP is entering 2008. As Advani and
Singh hit the road, Hindutva will play a role in selected
areas, constituencies and voter groups, but the overall
message will be a softer one that appeals to its NDA
coalition partners and a majority of the Indian electorate.
End Comment.

MULFORD